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My ideal outcome would be a knight comes in with blocking stake and gets us to production. At which point we should really start to see shareholder value in the form of sp increases and possibly future dividends.
You would think the US gov would want to stop China getting its hands on such a significant lithium deposit…I’m sure they could have a word with Musk and get him to build a stake.
Alternatively I wouldn’t mind if GF came back and offered £3+ hahaha.
165 don’t agree on B - the process I think is too long for the share price to get to 67.5 you are talking 8 months potentially so I’d argue it trades 5-10% discount that “pulls to par” as time goes on. It’ll prob trade in a range if we get to accepted deal.
Also to be clear if B is submitted at 67.5 you still need to go through vote process so still enough chance is blocked.
I think you are missing D - gets blocked by govt or takeover panel.
With C I don’t believe a knight can’t just ride in with a superior offer, gangfeng on their own have a blocking stake. A knight will need to take a stake and would need to find a way of diluting ganfeng if intention was to take over. More likely they take a blocking stake and that would be ideal if it’s an industry player or a tough negotiator...
If assigning probabilities I think you are 10% for A, 60% for B (within that 50-50 on through at price v higher) 15% C and 15% for D.
Right here the board are thinking we can’t lose M&G we’ve already got enough pi”s saying no that it’s all hinges on m&g.
Thanks 165, I think you have covered all the bases! Personally, I would prefer 'C' and hopefully get a more realistic figure.
The board might have indicated they fancy the offer, but PI power can somethings get big enough to vote against their wishes.
As Jam posted earlier the games have only just started, fingers crossed for a more favourable outcome!
Been thinking of all the possibilities:
A) Ganfeng don't make a formal offer
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Reaction: The share price will most probably initially dip, however I do expect the price to recover, perhaps back to at least current level of 55p
B) Ganfeng make a formal offer
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B1) The offer comes in at 67.5p
Reaction: The share price will jump to 67.5p
B11) Offer accepted
Reaction: The share price should remain around the offer price of 67.5p
B12) Offer rejected
Reaction: The share might initially dip, but may recover to at least current price of 55p upon the realization of the potential of the asset, and the recent raising of the company's profile
B2) The offer comes in over 67.5p
Reaction: The share price will jump to at least offer price
B21) Offer accepted
Reaction: The share price should remain around the offer price
B22) Offer rejected
Reaction: The share might initially dip, but may recover to higher levels
C) A White Knight walks in with a superior offer
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Reaction: This will be an interesting turn of events and will increase the interest in the share and therefore the share price will most likely increase to around the White Knight's offer price.
Thoughts welcome on whether I have captured all possibilities and events that may follow.