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@SeisNav If I had 20-20 hindsight I would not be on this BB I'd be sunning myself on my own private beach.
ATB APR
You have not!
@aprogerson I was looking at CCZ over the weekend and decided to invest this morning. Hopefully I’ve done the right thing!
@Shorn From what I've seen of NvS so far there are no accidents and everything is being done for a very good reason ... we might just not see or appreciate it just yet. Most of the necessary 'threads' required for a deal to play through and/or downside insurance are now in place and have been declared, just time to grab a beer, relax and watch it unfold methinks !
I'm sitting with 35% of my PF here which is rich enough for me at this stage. I just wish my other copper play CCZ was doing as well as its 28% down :-((
ATB APR
@aprogerson
Thank you for the excellent detailed summary and pointers, and i did listen to ZM's view. All good for me to continue the reading of past data.
The timing of Rothschild does seem odd timing, BUT i think the take should be a positive one. As is the sale of both Sturec to MetalTech and the CASA / Ayanka gold mine - de-risking the future to some degree (important to show that you can walk away from discussions / negotiations with AAL.
ATB Shorn
@shorn and @CleverThoughts If you like charts check the ARCM daily charts and Zak Mirs (Trading Cafe) comments on ARCM chart including the importance of the gap up through resistance at 4.2p (still unfilled) and the significance of a 'cup & handle' pattern which looks as if it will complete shortly when the SP goes through 7.3p and why I think the SP will go to 9.6p and Zak is targeting 10p.
AIMHO APR
@SeisNav Fab thanks ... I really ought to make a note of it myself !
Twitter link is https://twitter.com/BradleyEaston5/status/1350024047543922689
David Woods SEG paper on copper : scandium ratio as a method to locate ore deposits https://tinyurl.com/4ss4tb6b
David Woods Geology of the Copper Belt presentation https://youtu.be/WfOQ2Qc_h1Y
@Shorn Also check the RNSs relating to the sale of both Sturec to MetalTech and the CASA / Ayanka gold mine as both deals have a kickback mechanism in ARCM favour on further JORC upgrades to the Sturec resource over 1.5Moz and a Net Smelter Royalty in CASA case so we retain a right to payment if it is resold ... which we understand is also happening at the moment. Both events would also significantly improve ARCMs cash position which we now know covers us for a further 2 years exploration and OPEX regardless of any additional funding.
This is an inordinately good position to be in for a Junior Explorer and is no accident, but the direct result of a long-game now playing out driven by the BoDs strategy over the last 2 years or so.
AIMHO APR
Could someone please repost the links to:
(A) the chappy on Twitter with material on ARCM soil sampling with the Copper / Scandium ratio material, overlays and associated links ?
(B) David Woods lecture material and his Zambian 'missing copper' thesis?
@Shorn That is my experience also with these kind of processes. From a geology perspective AAL have had David Wood involved who has significant experience with FQM Sentinel mine and has worked across this whole area in Zambia looking for his 'missing copper' his geological models say are missing from Sentinel. NvS has declared ARCM has multiple Tier 1 copper deposits both verbally and in the ARCM Co presentations and yet we have not done enough drilling to prove it up sufficiently to get a JORC compliant resource ... there has been lots of conjecture on this BB as to why he has made such a bold claim.
Some useful background materials:
(1) Regional map showing relative proximity of FQMs Enterprise Trident / Sentinel mines to ARCM licences https://www.zamareminerals.com/s/34/ntambu-licence
(2) How to value a miner and info on JORC resources (focus pages 15, 16 & 17) https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Valuation_of_Metals_and_Mining_Companies.pdf
(3) Check David Woods and his Copper / Scandium ratio methodology for locating copper deposits in Zambia linked to his analysis of ARCM licence soil sample results which many on the BB believe might be behind NvS's extraordinary multiple Tier 1 claims
We are no over 8 months into the EA between ARCM & AAL (from Jul-20) & we understand that DW has been involved with helping ARCM and their drilling targeting last year but can't be 100% sure. I and many others believe we are now in the end-game which will result in walk-away, JV on one or more projects and/or full partial buyout. We know AAL are flush with cash and they are looking to extend their footprint in Zambia.
We also know that NvS has stated he is looking for a 10 or 20-bagger in terms of value creation for shareholders, but is also making sure the downside is covered in case AAL walkaway with the Kalaba project Scoping Study so that ARCM can become a producer to fund future exploration without dilution by generating substantial FCF in 12-18m time (FCF of £21m+ by my calculation using $8,500 Cu vs $6,000 stated in study)
There is lots of good material on this BB but sorry you will need to trawl through a lot of posts over the last 6-8 weeks. Hopefully the above will get you started
AIMHO & DYOR APR
You are right. And from hereonin far too risky to be bothered trading it. Personally I think we'll go into suspension soon.
@marco777
Our posts crossed - thanks that makes total sense.
I will be purchasing significantly tomorrow.
I think there may be a confusion between business process and mining exploration here - the assets are there (undervalued), but the euphoria (SP increase) is waiting on a business deal.
Anybody looking in here needs to understand both parts of the jigsaw, BUT needs to get in now...
I am on other boards and sometimes reposting the currant status and great headlines help with Newbies and sharing the great news you have !
ATB Shorn
Shorn.
Yes they have since last year.
Good to have you onboard. You have made a wise decision.
Just to add (and for what it's worth) - when i have signed exclusivity agreements in the past the intention is on the back of Heads of terms (HOT's - an agreement in principle on price and other conditions and all subject to the outcome of DD).
The HOT's are the basic framework of the deal and obviously very confidential and a timed agreement.
Before HOT's are signed the seller (looking for outright sale, JV, or other structure) will have tested the market (other Majors) to ensure they enter into exclusivity with the best potential partner / financial outcome.
Clearly i have no intimate knowledge of mining companies and the present ongoing process - BUT given your collective insight is anything i am describing fitting in with your current knowledge / past information here ?
ATB Shorn
Commercial aspects and probably an initial offer has neen put forward by AA now thats why Rothschilds have been brought in as M&A Financial Advisor.
Thanks all.
Have AA had access to drilling / exploration data prior to current negotiation ?
Forgive my lack of knowledge and being up to speed as you guys clearly are.
As i say sometimes the re-messaging helps "spread the word" too :-)
ATB Shorn
Hey shorn - welcome to the team!! As Marco stated we’re well into the commercial aspect of the deal. Most of us assume the Rothschild appointment means that an offer is in the offing, and that it would be odd for it not to completed before the new drilling season......that’s my reading of things, but sure others have differing views
During the investor call on 15th Feb, NvS stated that due diligence was still ongoing and that so far everything was very satisfactory.
DD has neen done and AA and arcm are now discussing a commercial transaction. As per rns on 13th January 2021 as it says following DD!!!
Hi
I have been reading what i can from ARCM website particularly the most recent presentation.
I believe that we are looking at Tier1's and a good management team, plus a jurisdiction that has improved (politically) over the years.
The macro economics speaks for itself - low future supply of Copper against a growing demand (super cycle?).
So as i read we have DD being carried out by AA and Rothchild's installed for financial guidance through a possible negotiation (?)
I have bought shares and intend to buy significantly more - but want to get a better understanding of the status.
My background is building small businesses (nothing to do with mining) and then selling to large UK PLC's and my experience is that lawyers and financial exit support is engaged with early on - though it turns into a frenzy towards "completion".
For me it usually takes one year give or take, from decision to sell to exit.
For those among you in the know - where do you think we are in the time line process ?
The data i read is DD has just started, BUT did i read somewhere that AA have had access to drilling and other data results ongoing throughout the discovery process ? (which would make negotiations and DD shorter - now).
I would appreciate copy & paste data perhaps previously posted or any clarification on the current situation.
Not withstanding my interest it would be good for any other Newbies and to promote the company and the future bagging potential...
ATB Shorn