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apols I somewhat ironically misspelled hodl.
Thanks to all who have replied and to Pedrobull for reminding me re Coinbase.
On that point, Coinbase mcap is currently $65bn with a P/E of 186.
Yes 186. And we are getting nervous when we put forward 30 as perhaps a little optimistic.
So given today has been a bad day I thought it might be fun to some Coinbase based maths....
estimated yr end hold: 2,500
estimated margin: 80%
estimated BTC price: $165k (source: longforecast - I have resisted PlanB's $278k)
liquidity: $330m
P/E: 189 (as per coinbase)
mcap: $62.4bn
SP: $163 / £118
£118. Something to think about when staring at your account this eve. Especially if it is red.
Not predicting it will happen but it is why I remain 'irresponsibly long' to borrow the phrase.
ATB
RC
I think coinbase is the most likely explanation and would explain why almost all miners have been down simultaneously. If it was a seed investor IE TImis - that doesn't explain why all the other miners have plummeted too.
I was starting to think maybe someone in the know knew something we didn't about bitcoin or knew potential news about bitcoin, but with bitcoin reaching all time highs that rules that out
If it is the coinbase scenario then the money will filter back and when it does it will have a snowball effect and we will have the momentum again.
Most miners are down, just bargains to be had imo.
Posted earlier that maybe even though BTC increasing may be losing out generally to other crypto’s.who have increased greater. BTC dominance has reduced from 73% to 53% in last 3 months and fallen steeply in March/April. Maybe that’s why most BTC mining stocks falling. When the other cryptos become over bought then BTC miners will become more popular again.
Thanks guys. Phoebus talking sense as usual. Ok so all makes sense - bit of impatience at the slow drip down and then money moving to Coinbase causes a bit of a run.
Will come back no doubt - looks like some will have been burnt there sadly.
ATB
RC
I do think the Coinbase argument is very likely. Sudden draw down both here and elsewhere is very recent which correlates nicely.
Hi RC,
I think it is a combination of a few and started by the seed investor being a forced seller (I don't understand why though guess we'll never know).
Then yesterday the Coinbase distraction with possible funds being moved from miners although again that make little sense as Coinbase are an exchange taking 0.46% from trades...
Marathon are down 5% today but still worth $4.2Bn and don't mine as many BTC as Argo
Racingcyclist - The explanation is thus: crypto is an asset and so related to world events. US pulling out of Afghanistan, people looking for security as vacuum likely to be filled by unknown/adverse party, gold on the up for security purposes, crypto likely on the way down given recent massive gains, Brexit increasing uncertainty but inflation around the corner, and of course, you need to add that the salt mines are running slim but world sea levels are on the up, so with global warming, evaporation will happen and salt produced. Hang on. What was that that I was drinking? Oh yeah, markets sometimes make no sense but sentiment? There's a clue in there.
Let's face it. A correction was on the cards though. Value seekers need to be brought in.
You got it licked.
Ok so we have a lot of the t.w.a.t.heads out today. To be expected given envy at the gains made here so far this year.
I know I am guilty of engaging with fools sometimes, so in order to avoid discussing rare stamps with someone sat in urine soaked jumbo cords or explaining the basics to socially challenged fantasists, I thought it might be good to discuss what we think is actually happening here:
Possible scenarios as far as I can see:
1. big seller(s) who entered at seed stage and is now cashing out, which
2. has caused many impatient PIs to get nervous and either take some profits or
3. for those who haven't done their research and/or entered later, get out before any real loss
or
4. a targeted drop by the MMs / IIs to try and get hold of our shares? I never tend to go for conspiracy theories but I know many do. Not sure there is evidence but the action here is strange compared to the past few weeks.
or
5. This is just normal volatility for crypto so just shut up, grow a pair, hodl and stop writing long winded BS posts like this RC.
For clarity, nothing changes for me other than my spreadsheet doesn't look quite so nice - I remain irresponsibly long and won't be selling even a single share until March 2022 when I plan a small topslice for tax reasons.
But I would like to understand this as scratching my head a little.
Be great some informed POVs from the educated and experienced of this BB.
Thanks in advance
RC