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My guesstimate was circa 80-90m but this could easily go up if they cant stem the flow of complaints. They should be hopefully ok as any FCA fines can wait if it puts the business in any immediate peril.
Yep got it now thanks.
FOC based on 15,000 complaints @ £650 a time.
Year to 31 March 2019
Retained earnings 330.6
Appendix I think, I am sure it's at the end of the report you posted the link for earlier
Found it! In capital and reserves. Yes that mere 330m last year so that would be added to this year plus the cancelled divi would go in that pot
Based on 18 months of interest to repay = £45m
+ 8% interest on top = £5m
+ £650 per complaint FOC = £10m
+ something for the FCA = £5m
Total : £65m
Itsagame. Is that how much last year ? I can’t find it which section is it in?
@itsagame I think you may be fairly close to the mark with £85m.it would certainly fit the statement of 'substantially higher than the estimate of at least £35 million'
And yet would achieve the further comment of '
The Company's liquidity remains strong. Amigo has sufficient financial headroom and cash on its balance sheet to continue to fund operations and support its customers during this challenging time.'being much less than their cash holding.
It's very reassuring at least
you mean the £330m in retained earnings on last years results. :)
The coming results should show annual revenue: Q3 £72.6M+ Q2 £73.9M+ Q1 £71.5M + Q4 let’s say the min.of Q1,Q2,Q3 which is £71.5m = £289.5m
Annual revenue 2019: £270.7m
YoY 6.95%
and i included 3 full years of loan interest when most of this will not have been paid or due yet, tops its 18 months of interest, so the figure repaid is actually about half that
Has anyone come across the retained earning held amount?
Plus FCA / FOC fees......
and i included the month of October 2018 when its not included in the investigation.
These are the figures i made up to give an idea on how much it could be.. take with a huge bucket of salt as they are complete guess work, but im intrigued by it
figures from results for periods in question.
Results for second half last year (full year minus results, minus half year results)
1st Oct to 31 March 2019
Revenue 140.60
Adjusted profit after tax 52.90
Profit after tax 50.90
EPS (Basic, adjusted) 11.20
Basic EPS 10.80
1 April to 31 Dec 2019 (9 Months ended 31 December 2019 )
Revenue 218
Adjusted profit after tax 44.7
Profit after tax 45.9
EPS (Basic, adjusted) 9.4
Basic EPS 9.7
Add in the results for the last 3 months to March 2020, since then its been lending very little and ill guess the figure at £40m revenue.
So the FCA issue covers (140.6 + 218m + say ~£40m for last unreported period) <£400m revenue.
their headline rates is 49.9%, example is £1,000 borrowed will total £1,750 repaid over 3 years.
On that basis we have £228m of the loan book in question.
atleast half will be fine but lets take a huge assumption of half the loans in question being iffy.
so we are at £114m of loans with interest over 3 years bringing in revenue of a total £200m = it costing ~£85m + 8% interest is the worst possible outcome.
Malpenn how much is the retained earnings. Do you or anyone else know? save me trawling thru.
If we strip away everything else and look at the raw numbers.
I make it 466 is net debt, loan book value is 722 million and cash held is 135 million.
As per JB, stop lending, collect in loan book.
Challenge FCA/FOS , our share price is current not reflecting the raw numbers.
Even if we say that complaints will be £100 million