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But I raise you the mcap increases but static sp from warrants and placings so 5 year chart doesn’t make complete sense as the shares in issue is vastly different now although I agree the .25-.5 cycle has been seen many times before
Elir I think you have understood.
I am saying that evidently the market doesn't agree, which is reflected in the SP and the 5 year chart.
@shouldvsold
You seem to disagree with my, zaks and first equity's research on valuation, yet youve refused to offer any insight into why you think that is the case nor provide your own alternative.
You seem to assert that any current share price is the most accurate indicator of fundamental value
What warrants are you talking about? Given the exercise prices relative to current sp, I can't imagine you'd be in the least bit concerned.
Elir no need.
I find its always good to listen to someone else's view on a stock to help balance ones on opinion.
Evidently the market hasn't be able to agree on your or Zak's technical valuation, so maybe the disconnect is in the analysis rather than the fundamentals.
Today's news might set a new range & indeed a new high although exercising warrants may prevent this from happening.
Should I would also look although that is the trading range view which I agree we are in a .25-.5ish cycle the mcap is increasing so pre dilution the sp would be in an uptrend on a zoomed out view
The end of the bull run was marked by the "concentrategate" and the missing long anticipated bulk sample assays.
Silence from various derampers marked the end of the slide
all rather "sentimental" ... just sit back and watch the show now !
there's a disconnect between fundamental valuation and market valuation
zak mir approaches this share from a technical analysis point of view
perhaps you should take a more detailed look at the calcs and message me privately as email on the spreadsheet if you require clarification or you spot any errors
Ok I see.
Well .55 seems to be the top of the trading range. Its hit that and been unable to make new highs for quite a while. It will be interesting to see if today's news will give it the legs to do so.
Even though it has been the bottom of your valuation range, the market appears to believe that's the top end.
yes a £1m offer now and then another later when the SP should be higher post JORC for transition to production
@Shouldve
I had previously valued at 0.7p - 0.9p ... to First Equitys 0.5p (the main difference being that I valued HH at less than FE and I valued Amistoq as more, more akin to a disused mine, as opposed to a greenfield site because it had previously been a mine). The trading range (excluding troughs and spikes) was around 0.3 to 0.5 so about half
I'm using similar rationale in the light of new information with fundamental valuation as 1p - 2.6p (immediately pre jorc)
so I would hope for a trading range of 0.5 to 1.3p between now and November. I'd point out that there's an accelerator clause that kicks in on some warrants at 1.1p (held for 10 days or somethign)
Elir so between 1p-2.6p based on today's news & yesterday (discounting today's news) would be between?
at the current price a raise like 1 share for every 20 would raise just over £1m
I for one would welcome a share offer of one share per twenty held.
That seems a reasonable way to raise capital, keeping both shareholders and the BOD happy.
Would existing holders be up for participating in an offer, say 1 discounted share for every 20 held?
I would. Sp needs to be higher first I think.
@lp6060... Private placings aren't the only way of capital raises. This is especially true of post jorc resources with take off agreements. We could be there by the end of 21, but it's not a certainty. All looking good so far though, fingers crossed we need a bit of good luck
@shoulvesold
I'd expect 3 yrs to strong cash flow and 5 for all current resources to be in production. (except for hh brockham) the latter needs to be either sooner making cash or flogged off
@ricardo
A resource pre jorc is conventionally valued at 1/3 of its post jorc value (if the grades and reserves are confirmed as being the same)
Tully I agree on the upside potential. I will be increasing my holding with periodic relatively small increments which I can afford to lose, with the various rounds of funding which will have to occur, in hopes that in 5 years time, I will see gain a return.
If an acquisition occurs within that time. Bonus.
I am mindful of the years Rare Earth-Cadence Min had to endure the sub 1p journey.
I rarely get carried away with shares, but if there was ever a buy and hold this is it. Peaks and troughs will come of course, but long term this could be phenomenal as our grinning friend has already said.
@shoyldvsold, calcs on spreadsheet, I think all commented, factoring in uncertainty. Npv based on 10% rate 50% equity to npv10 value, 10yr life of mine, taking lowest estimate of quantities and grade. 5% annual growth in graphite val. Accessible by sea for off take, non ice class mini bulker. Capexes built in. Would love to chat more but bit busy today.
“We commissioned this independent assessment of the potential quantity and grade
of the graphite at the Amitsoq Graphite Project in order to provide support for their
being significant tonnage potential at the Project. Having now declared an initial
Exploration Target of between 1.3 to 3.6 million tonnes of contained graphite for the
two deposits combined, THIS GIVES US GREAT CONFIDENCE to move forward to a drilling
programme at Amitsoq.” (my capitals)
Both the quantity and the grades are there, GF's great confidence is understandable.
I will be interested to see what the 1o'clock club does.
I’d love it if Alba has more gold than we think and can fund everything with ease. Cmon!
I concur. Long way to go, no doubt placements along the way.
But in 3 years time the EV industry will be peaking and will be shifting a shed load of graphite out to service supply chains in what is the biggest growth industry in today's world.
Ocelot I don't mean to burst anyones investment bubble here but let's keep expectations realistic.
Does anyone know of the current infrastructure that exists in Greenland for graphite production?
Does Alba need to build a processing plant? Dig a mine? Will the processed ore need to be transported offsite by a particular vehicle. Does a road currently exist to & from the site for transportation to occur or will roads have to be built?
Guys Alba is too early into this licence to be questioning why the share price isn't 10x higher than it should be based on the news today.
There is not going to be a day shift of 10 guys with pick axes mining & then selling that ore to the local market in a months time with sales of millions of pounds. This project will take years of investment to reach maturity.
A mining major Will have the capex to expedite the large scale operation required, Alba does not.