Hi Nastid, thanks for all your recent posts. The update on fabrication of the two trains seems to have slipped through the wider audience which is a pity as progress is obviously being made and within the timeframe guidance. I know it's not earth moving, but the news is important. I still sense that there is a possible game changer out there with HYR. I major tie up with a transformer company in Europe I think rather than USA? I don't believe they need to go to the market again for more funds because the 11p offer last November is still in the bank ....once the insurance pays. Could someone buy out the company. Probably not as the positive operating results haven't been on record for long enough. It would take the major shareholders and a good chuck of private holders to agree to a sell out. And at what price? Upwards of 20p. This has been mooted before and I only raise it again as this management won't let the company meander around for much longer. Certainly by beginning of 2015 we shall all know if the company has taken off again as it proved it could do until the fire last December. I leave it to the more technical types to debate the proof and viability of the company, but my comment is that I wouldn't be in HYR if I thought management hadn't already analysed all the issues that RobinPlunder has raised. Nastid has answered these points as I would expect the management to have done. Thus I'm not concerned with any commercial issues which might not have been addressed. Markets change of course, but I would expect this experienced team to be ahead of the market! The holiday season will be over soon so perhaps some good developments in September.
RE: New Process Models
Certainly looks impressive. Beyond the direct impact on Hydrodec, it should improve the prospects of the licensing effort.
The coincidence that the MM/broker put through (and then quickly reversed) a large erroneous trade at a significantly large discount to the then current sp, only for the sp to hit the incorrect price one or two days later, is a far too big coincidence for me... :)
14 Aug '14
RE: RE: PFO / Re-refining margins
Morning All, Thanks RobinPlunder. It's been the way you describe for some time, or at least as I recall. True capex and opex are key, and not just in Hydrodec's case, margins are now thin across the board, but Ian has a good track record on those two fronts. Beyond op/capex considerations, in Superfine's case, they have had some success in adding to the resale premium. It's now recognised as industry leading, I can see them eventually driving the same for SuperFine Lubes. I don't know whether the other RFO competitors have similar products, but Gen3 might also be giving them a slight advantage in today's processed fuel market. Although they have developed their own IP for base oils, I imagine this was primarily the process/control systems, but not a working (and tested) plant design. Ian's comment about the difficulties of licensing, suggests to me that buying off the self was a way to enable in the first instance, and a short circuit route to commercialisation. The costs and time to develop a full working plant, is/was probably far more than the current approach. I trust the team to have looked at all the factors and gone with the best business case overall, rather than because there was a flaw in previous thinking. New marquee client http://www.ossgroup.uk.com/press-releases.html?nwId=35
12 Aug '14
RE: PFO / Re-refining margins
legobrickgirl / earwiggo - scroll back to nastid's earlier post I was answering the question that he put to me. Re-refining has been around since the late 50s, which is not much longer than I have been in the industry. During that time nothing has changed. Residual fuel oils sell at a discount to crude oil and base oils sell at a premium to crude oil and gas oil. When the waste oil price is close to the crude price and the recycled base oil is discounted against the virgin product, capex and opex are key. My original point still remains, why spend millions on developing new technology then buy old technology? I intend to stay in until we see the year end 2014 results the only thing that will change that is if the share price continues in free fall because we are sure as hell a long way off earning a dividend from this investment
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