Goodwin Share Price (GDWN)

Quite remarkable !

Thankfully, I didn't sell the lot a couple of weeks back !

I truly expect GDWN to compound at higher rates going forward.

We have been through a high capex environment for some years that will now ease, plus AVD contributing more as they get bigger, plus the commencing of DUCOYA with very high margins plus the possibility of easat finally landing those big contracts they are going into...

I am sure GDWN family will do the best and allocate capital for longterm compouding. Remember, duvelcos market is the biggest they have ever tapped into

Dear Bernie,

Thank you for your helpful observations.

Its a difficult call yet I am pleased to be a shareholder although, relative to you, I only have 9 years experience.

I am impressed by the family and the team and am excited by the steadfast way they are building the business. I am hopeful that the new activities with Ducoya, Easat and the AVD battery extinguishers will complement the growth potential of the foundries and the defence related operations.

In today's world, moderate, continuing dividend increases will be welcomed and I'd rather have significant capital growth potential with a 2% dividend which grows than a higher yield which is difficult to sustain.

Best regards

Well, maybe selling a few yesterday was not one of my best decisions !

WestOfEngland

Partly because of the lack of coverage and the controlling family stake Goodwin's always been a nightmare to value ( I've been in to a greater or lesser extent for ~ 20 years ), though the family's stake allows them to take a very long term view !

I don't think we're currently overvalued ... I'm assuming eps for this FY will be ~250p which, at the current share price of £63 will put us on a pe of ~25. With growth at 20% that's a PEG of ~1.25. If growth continues at ~20% that's not cheap, but it's not obviously expensive either.

It is putting a lot of faith in continuing high growth though. If that growth drops to ( say ) 15% then it starts to look a bit different.

Are we on the brink of sustained medium term ( 3 to 5 years ) growth 9f ~20% per annum ? Maybe. If we are then I can see a share price of £80 to £90 in the next 18 months. We'll know better when this years results come out along with, more importantly, details of the outlook for 24/25.

Until then, for me, it's about risk management of my meagre wad !