Having a gut feeling Lewis is all well and good and nobody is suggesting you aren't able to express a gut prediction but you should advertise gut predictions as gut predictions. When you say something specific asking for confirmation of a 'large purchase at 2.32' you are stating that that is what you have seen.
You haven't actually answered my query. Can you point to the time of the trade which was large at 2.32? If you can, please do, that information might be of value. If you can't then your information is disingenuous and dare I say it perhaps aimed at people who might be hopping on the board without Level 2 with the aim to influence some buy action. I can't prove that, but unless you're specific about the trade you talked about then that becomes a likely and unpleasant scenario.
If you're going to write on a discussion board and offer factual information, then you must, when asked, back it up with a factual answer.
Also, when you say 'wait until 6pm to see if I am writing nonsense' you seem to be a) suggesting that I was accusing you of writing falsehoods which I was not at the time of my query. I was (and still am) asking you to point out the specific time of the trade and b) suggesting that if the trade existed I would need to wait until 6pm this evening to see it on my (or anyone else's screens) which would be wholly inaccurate.
Certainly in the long run you may well be right about the price moving up to 3.7, you may be wrong. Regardless of whether time proves you are right or wrong, that's your call to make 'but' if you're going to talk about trades and highlight their size as a point of information on the day you are writing the comment, then they must exist and you must be able to refer to the time of the trade when asked.
No I can't ,as you well know how MMs operate is not totally transparent at times, suffice to say that they do test support and resistance frequently but as to exactly how they do that without manipulating trades (as if they would) is anyone's guess so there is not simple answer to your question.
Looking at the chart again I have redrawn my lower trend line as I feel my initial one was a little overambitious. Still looking good for the short term though, we have come a vey long way in a short space of time, showing some consolidation around the 2.35 mark today IMHO
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