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Darth, the only reason I can see to be selling today is the wider economy and what it holds. We’ve been here too long, we are reliant on the news we are getting from FUM and what’s not to like. Further releases, more inflow of money, likely good news on the patent, further tie ups. We all know what is coming with FUM, everyone has a choice, I’m suggesting it’s a matter of patience and time. I’ve already stated I’d like to have seen a speedier marketing in various countries, we are on the way to three years since European approval. But JB and the board along with their partners don’t see it that way. In my view it’s simply a question of the market holding up, and launches taking place. Yes I wish it was all happening quicker, but is what it is!
Jet, for those who aint buying, its on discount as it is.
Just a thought, but Haleon with a market capitalisation of £31 billion, were prepared to pay £4 million up front for distribution rights and so on, so must have a high degree of confidence in the potential for Eroxon in the US. Why didn’t they just buy the company, or am I just being naive?
Relax, let it drop, it’s a buying opportunity.
No, hate the ppl who aint buying :)
Good RNS & great webcast, but SP dropping yet zero rise! So not bouncing back total SP manipulation! I hate those MM’s!!!
All I can say is WOW dropping still???
Very interesting post Beechurst. I confess that I had not appreciated the fact that the share price is about the same as it was a year ago.
Given all the positive developments this is just not normal trading it’s almost perverse.
A number of topics, new and old, have been raised today which has prompted further thought and analysis around the following :
SHARE PRICE
I, too, am bemused by the lack of progression given all the positive and groundbreaking news of the past 12 months not to mention an already improving financial performance and even better trading prospects ahead given further intended launches etc. And nobody, yet, seems to have given much credence to what should come out of opening up in the US - hopefully a bonanza but still to be seen!!
Just 12 months ago the SP closed @ 42p v 49p today, hardly what you might have expected with all that has occurred over the period especially when the market always seems to profess that share pricing is reflective more of future events/expectations and performance than history/the past. All sounds rather contrarian at the moment, almost, as somebody has already observed, there is disbelief with the realities that have now come to pass. Another 12 months on might tell us differently. I for one, think what has happened in the last 3 months in becoming a trading company rather than just an R & D outfit adds plenty of confidence/reassurance that the business now has a progressive future, than not.
MANAGEMENT CAPABILITY/COMPETENCE
I admit, from the interviews I have seen, JB's personna comes across as a little staid, traditional/conventional but, to me, has got it right in way is organising the way ahead.
I put this business down as a typical Hunter and Farmer/Gatherer sort where different skills are needed for each category/neither the twain shall mix. In this context I liken the R & D Team as the hunters i.e developing a product for market but with no specific talent to commercialise so hand that over to the professionals, in this case Cooper & Haleon to harvest the product to the full. On that ground JB must be applauded for recognising the need for employing proven external expertise to better maximise the value of Eroxon when not available from elsewhere within Futura.
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
I have already given my take on the Interim Results but given that revenues only came in Apr/June period you can split the quarters and conclude the effective Q2 operating loss was as little as £215K. And if you think unit sales in the 3 months progressively increased in number, month on month, you might even judge that June, as a single month, was nearing BE already.
PROJECTIONS
Given my take above I share others thoughts that 2024 expectations for BE is rather cautious. After all only need to increase unit sales, compared to Q2, by 25% to achieve same which should be more than possible with the new launches anticipated during remainder of year. Is it not "Better to Underpromise and Overachieve" than the reverse. In this instance with all at a relatively new stage and much else yet to come through and be shown to be sustainable maybe prudence should be the by word.
As ever, tomorrow is another day so what will that brin
Watch the big buys comming in and there have been plenty of them in the last ten days and today again.
This will shoot once they have chased everyone out.
PLAY THE MARKET MAKERS GAME to make the MMs money
They are trying their best to knock ths and all share holders out.
Am delighted to be able to get in @ such a good price.
Its not to be believed
Fully ISA’d - up Fuzzy, mainly with FUTURA.
Arturo
Have you not heard of an ISA???!
The share price of FUTURA is being adversely affected by the general malaise and despondency permeating everything throughout the Media at the present time.
What has been achieved by a tiny company after years of hostility , errors and adverse publicity is quite remarkable and its change of fortune and exceptional success to date is something that
should be shouted from the rooftops.
Unfortunately long term investment is being actively opposed by a GOVERNMENT,CONSERVATIVE IN NAME ONLY and which is likely to be succeeded by a Labour administration which will do all it can to penalise any form of wealth creation.
Why should anyone invest in a company for the long term however promising, as Futura undoubtedly is , when any profit made will be taxed at the individuals highest rate of tax when the shares are sold ,or his family is charged with the iniquitous IHT should he die .
I am aware that FUTURA being an AIM company is subject to BPR at present but for how much longer ?
Speculators, day traders , call them what you will , are happy to take 10% profit on a regular basis where the chances of HMRC discovering every transaction are fairly remote and this must have an adverse effect on the share price as far as private medium to long term investors are concerned.
Until such time as someone of merit in the City section of the media is prepared to draw the
success of this remarkable BRITISH company to the wider investing public then I’m afraid that us long term FUMSTERS are just going to have to sweat it out.
Let’s hope that not too many of us pass on whilst we are waiting !
GLA,
Arturo
The forlorn line of four packets on the shelf behind the pharmacy counter now has a price below them. £19.75. Still no point of sale material. Almost as if they are embarrassed to have it on sale. No such feelings with regards to the little blue smartie.
Look at the market Viagra (Pfizer) we are trying to infiltrate! established 20yrs, Billions $$$$$$ in revenues/profits. Eroxon, it might as well be called ALICE, & singing 'Who the *UCK is Alice!!!! It would definitely appear unfortunately time is the main factor. Why do Band's, Singers, Talent shows, Actors/Actresses' all head to the states, because that's the world market what needs to be dominated! IMO once things get rocking in the US, it will pick up pace. They are loud! they shout loud! everything is voiced loud! if anything is going to rocket the SP it will be 'Homer Simpson! shouting 'Marge' where are youuuu its throbbing!
I do take all points Darth. I have said in previous posts that building a brand takes time. IMO time seems to be the key factor here. As you will know from my previous posts, I to expected a lift with financial published. However it does appear that confidence & time is what this appears it will take. Also as I have stated in previous posts, I was a sales manager in london managing a similar scale out product, with similar excitement & it was flying off the shelves. Seriously late nights answering the phones & just taking the orders! however....it still took 2/3yrs before it was considered the go to brand. Look at this angle...whats the current buyers age bracket here looking to use this product? the older category will be skeptical at buying a new product. Although has sold very well. Then look at another angle....what's the age bracket of the investors likely to be? is this age bracket the kind that embraces change, new products/ technology? forget the day traders looking for a quick buck....I'm talking traders in for the long term...these will be of the near retire age IMO & cautious to invest...I think the small up/down trends we are seeing is the city boys gambling. The underlying 40-50 maintenance figure beneath is based on all the news to date, which is somewhat of an uplift to when I bought in years ago...& what maybe the catalyst awaiting is profits & US lift off. In real terms this investment is still in the early stages of building a solid & sustained brand awareness, but at which is building nicely & I think H" next year we will be edging towards a little more excitement! Have a good evening all!
Milk, nice one. Chiz, this guy gets it, low sp considering the amazeballs news with the initial sales is enuff to stunt your money making boner, and you are surprised at the 'negativity'. It is a head scratcher. FA's can number crunch on the snippit of data and see a no brainer future for futura, but wheres the play money at? Why is buying of shares not off the charts?! Invest now for the future say seasoned players. They defo will be kicking themselves if left too late to get in.
Some good opinions below, i don't think anyone is complaining about the news coming out of Futura though a better spin could be done on the statements, look at that chap in the last investor meeting who was working with Boots , look how enthusiastic he was , it all rubs off on you i assure you. We have to always read between the lines to get the information we need from Fum in my opinion . A nice pretty bar chart saying we have sold 200,000 units in 2 months in Uk and Belgium and out of that a certain % are repeat business as an example. would help gauge performance. People here are more frustrated why the share price has not moved with the recent news, but i suspect the market is still trying to work out where they stand with FUM and how it is performing currently , they need more concrete stats over a longer period i guess along with the state of the stock market in the Uk overall and other factors beyond Fum's control . But as they say control the controllable's
Good post PetitStVincent,
My understanding is, Futura manufacture the product using 3rd parties, then sell this to the distributors/marketers. With Haleon looking to launch from H2 2024, It would be reasonable to assume, Haleon would need a lot of stock in place ready for distribution!
& I might add, the 20% market share has been in a market space with the likes of Viagra etc...what an amazing achievement! This product is finding I think quite quickly its place in the market! well done FUM. I'm so excited I've no need to use the stuff! lol
Dear Gents
I'm amazed at some of the downward somewhat negative views that I read on here of late. Prior to all the RNS's we've had of late of all the great news over the last while with US sign etc etc....even now when everything is trending in an amazing direction, are somewhat negative & views of suspicion being used. I'm a long term FUMster! been through all the ups & downs of the SP, but have honestly never seen so much positive news, as we do now, its something to be excited about!!!. The exposure & upward trend is superb!! US projections not in the forecast/mentioned?? why? IMO why is it needed. The UK & Belgium has already met the projected 20% market share, surely we all can see what's around the corner when the US starts banging this out (Pardon the pun) it will explode! The US marketing will have a much more stronger presence. Half my family live in the states & tell me of the way they market. Haleon will do a fantastic job in an arena that they are experts in. This share has & is still a long burn as building a brand takes time. Everywhere I research I here good things. People still keep mentioning the Amazon reviews! the %%%% it doesn't work for have got to voice somewhere! & since Amazon were one of the first you'd expect to see the negatives. IMO I predict & someone please feel free to remind me in the near future. That in the next 1yr/18mths we will be seeing a different picture as hopefully FUM will be in profit. The fact they say next year/2025 probably incorporates US, is amazing. There is only one way that this is going to go, but for the sake of repeating myself, this is a patience game, but my villa in Turkey is getting closer to being had!!!!! positve vibes people!
And so Futura’s share price slips back after the H1 results. No surprises there, as it was full of “known knowns”. The AGM Statement on 22 June 2023 stated that “we are pleased to report that net reported revenues for the six months ending 30 June 2023 will be not less than £1.5 million”. So the £1.7m for H1 was already largely expected. Much of the stuff in the official slides was also already known. It was stuff we’d heard countless times before. So it’s all already in the market price.
“Off piste”, in the Proactive Investors interview we did get a genuinely new “known unknown”, of the £1.7m of revenue being based on circa 200,000 units sold. These are largely from Q2 only, from 2 countries, and in the UK from two retailers, Boots and Amazon. That’s an amazing result, given the narrowness on which it was based.
The 200,000 figure provides us with a window into the soul of Futura. The Co-High venture for China signed in 2021 provided Futura with 50% of the ‘profits’. The 200,000 units is indicating that, with Cooper, Futura’s share is 34%. James Barder seems to have indicated in past interviews that Haleon has driven a harder bargain, with a lower share than 34% for Futura, BUT sweetened by possible future payments by Haleon of up to US $ 45m.
The 200,000 units enables us to calculate break even for Futura. I’ve written in the past that it is not dependent on the US to be profitable. But with volumes in the US it can become monstrously so. This applies even more so if the Eroxon franchise is extended into different delivery systems, to women etc.
James Barder has always been super-cautious in his guidance. It took Cooper around a year after signing its deal to make first shipments, and then only to a couple of countries, and to a couple of retailers. On this basis, Haleon may start sales in the US sometime in H2 2024.
It’s not difficult to see 2024 ending with annual global unit sales well north of 2m (giving a profit north of £10m based on an average £25 unit price, 34% revenue share and flexing costs up a few million for new personnel for new R&D, extending manufacturing supply etc). With 301m shares in issue, and no debt, £10m of profit equates to earnings of 3.3p per share. I’d be really surprised if Futura were not paying a maiden dividend by 2025. Entry price today for the start of this earnings stream. 50p per share. I acknowledge some revenue won’t necessarily recur if buyers are disappointed, but this is all still without the benefit of China etc and product extensions.
Going forward, the revenue and profit bar charts for Futura will be akin to a Harrier jump jet taking off vertically.
The current share price is ridiculously low given what we now know thanks to James’ “known unknown” of the 200,000 units. This more me was the single most important piece of information to investors to understand and really appreciate the significance of.
Clearly, so far, the
Tree shaking at moment to try and unhinge some longer term holders before the next jolt north coming very soon!!
Martinelwick, maybe get Barder to call you again for chat, could clear that matter up in moments.