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Hayward Tyler Group Share Chat (HAYT)


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flundra
Posts: 543
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:49.50
RE: HAYT
26 Jul '17
There'll be some HAYT/AVG arbitrage going on as well - trader's dream!
 
flundra
Posts: 543
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:49.50
RE: HAYT
26 Jul '17
Great post shareminator. I hope to read the AR shortly. Thanks for these comments, although my blood pressure’s probably gone up a few notches reading them. What a sorry end for a great company on the up.

Re the SP, it seems to have come back in the last couple of days from unexpected lows, like you say probably because for example we now have the Sept target date. All other things being equal I’d expect it to sit just below the merger price, like poole said to reflect the “risk” of merger not proceeding, and the market interpreting merger not proceeding as bad news. (We know better of course!). Merger price is of course a moving target being determined by formula referenced to the AVG SP.

No-voting Resistance fighters like myself may emerge in sufficient numbers to scupper the merger, a counter bid might still materialise, and there’s always the possibility of dial-moving news. Those scenarios could put the cat amongst the pigeons, but my best guess otherwise would be relative stability around current levels until merger.
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,792
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:47.00
RE: HAYT
25 Jul '17
Exactly, if you do read it though it will fill you with greater confidence about HAYTs H1 performance. There was a subtle point mentioned about £80m revenue on an annualised basis being achieved in H2 last year and that the out look for this year suggests growth on this. Coupled with that was mention of just were new revenue might come from and how Peter Brotherhood (which cost us £10.1m) is growing quickly and picking up the slack nicely. The gross profit generated is 3x that of HAYTs gross profit as a percentage of revenue. That acquisition and the investment in the Centre of Excellence alone amounts to the paltry value AVG offered. A company that employs more than 500 people globally across multiple sites on different continents with record order book and a long standing reputation. Voting down this offer will show the Boards we as shareholders do not wish to gift this investment away at ridiculous prices and they must seek alternative financing arrangements. Strike a refinancing deal with the banks, conduct another loan note if absolutely necessary. Raise the cash and go about turning round our fortunes. Where do you think the share price will go from here flundra, as we approach the vote?
flundra
Posts: 543
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:46.00
RE: HAYT
25 Jul '17
I haven’t read the AR, but we may never know what’s actually gone on with the banking saga. Similarly for the vote, I suspect information will be minimal, and timeframes short. All to gently ease through a yessssssss – trusssssssssssst meeeeeeeeeee.

It’s still NO from me though.
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,792
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.50
HAYT
25 Jul '17
Wow well there's an update, can't be sure who received the low down but clearly a leak this morning with increased buying activity. We have received an official date then, 1st September is the date at which AVG is expected to have completed it's acquisition of this company, implying a short time-frame of 36-37 days. The vote won't come a week before, they will need time to verify the votes and make the transition if the bid is successful so I would estimate early August perhaps. I couldn't see details in the Annual Report. I expect some who sold thinking this would drift lower will be disappointed, that was a nice buying opp 10% up on very little but expect those 36-37 days to go by quickly, especially when we receive notification of the voting day. GLA

Update on banking facilities

Further to the announcement of 30 June 2017 Hayward Tyler Group plc, the specialist engineering Company comprising the operating companies of Hayward Tyler and Peter Brotherhood, is pleased to announce that the repayment of £2.4 million of short term banking facilities and the annualised measurement of the financial covenants, have both been extended from 28 July to 1 September 2017, to coincide with the expected completion of the recommended acquisition by Avingtrans plc, as announced on 30 June 2017.
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,792
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:42.50
HAYT
25 Jul '17
Buys coming in now, ASK up to 48p
poole
Posts: 22
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:42.50
View Thread (2)
ANNUAL REPORT PUBLISHED
24 Jul '17
Annual Report of HAYT - 129 pages to read! -'Poised for Growth'
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,792
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:43.00
HAYT
21 Jul '17
PAYS up nicely on its proposed offer this morning and same sector SCH has benefited nicely. Quality investments, the like of which we all hoped HAYT would flourish into. Instead we are suffering from a low ball bid.

Just my opinion flundra but I think recent selling into low liquidity is just a sign of no forthcoming counter offer and the fact the bid was not for a set amount of cash but rather a ratio of AVG. The type of deal presented is advantageous to the AVG board (and those seated there post merger) as shareholders may exit prior to the completion of deal given risks involved here with financing. We have not heard any news regarding a counter offer or better looking results but equally rumours of worse than expected results is just a speculative. Lack of new orders does not mean order conversion is down and costs will be back in line with previous H1 norms I should think. To add to that the market seems subdued as a result of the current offer period and liklihood it will succeed in the absence of any shareholder activism or MC inspired counter offer. Maybe when a date for the vote and further details are provided we will see an uptick. Likely those in favour of the merger are collecting undertakings or assurances with the bigger players. I for one have made my peace with the merger now, despite my intention to vote against, such a merger will add stability here which is much needed. We expected the BoD to secure that for us but instead this is what we have. Such is the messy world of finance and corporate greed. Hopefully will pick up a few of these on the cheap in the next month or two
flundra
Posts: 543
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:43.00
RE: Been telling you.................
20 Jul '17
I quite agree the HAYT sp can be expected to hover a bit below the merger price to reflect the risk of merger not proceeding (all other things being equal), and it was doing this in the days post announcement.

I was thinking though that the subsequent fall of 10% on no new news required some particular explanation, because it’s such a significant fall.

I can’t see how any shareholder can vote yes with any conviction given the restricted newsflow. The picture now will be very different from March. I also wondered if sweeteners can be given to secure those irrevocable vote undertakings.

The balance sheet is perhaps stretched in the sense of “working hard” rather than stressed, but without updated figures and an explanation (which we’ve never had) for the long delay refinancing, we don’t really know.

My understanding from what the bod have said (until they went to ground) is that the strong H2 2017 performance anticipated in the half yearly report, happened/is happening, just the wrong side of 31 March! With all forward business pointers strong too. Order levels may not have been very exciting in Q1 calendar year 2017, but may well be flowing in superfast now.
poole
Posts: 22
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:43.00
RE: Been telling you.................
20 Jul '17
The HAYT SP is presently largely determined by the AVG SP which on its own is justified by its cash holdings and forward order book. That the HAYT SP is at a slight discount to the merger proposal terms principally reflects the risk the deal will not proceed for some reason. If one thinks the deal will be done and that looks likely then HAYT is essentially a cheap way into AVG. It is a good deal for AVG and once it is a done deal and the logic of the merger is better understood by the market (following brokers notes etc) the potential of the combined business ought to be reflected in a progressive improvement in the AVG price once the deal is completed.

I agree ELB did do a good job over the years but the BOD completely screwed things up big time on a number of fronts all at the same time over the last year or so. That HAYT's balance sheet was stretched was clearly a problem but less so if the required order intake and hence forward order book was in place. If it was then the BOD and the committed larger shareholders would I think not be supporting the present terms.

The HAYT preliminary figures claimed a record order book but that suggestion was due to the addition of Peter Brotherhood and in reality the order book was higher in early 2017 than at the end of March 2017. My reading is that they have been struggling to get the orders in otherwise we would have heard much more of them. Despite sterling weakness part of the problem appears to have been converting many OEM order prospects into orders in a timely manner or at all! Seemingly HAYT has been devoting additional resources to securing those or similar orders but that takes time. Meantime AVG has no certainty of HAYT short term revenue stream (or maybe it has via due diligence!) and has for its own shareholders to pitch its terms to reflect that.

I get the impression that many contributors to these threads have been there to make a turn and already done so but those (perhaps a minority) in for the longer term ought to do well relative to the current price by staying with the merged businesses.




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