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Leading commentator Josh Mahony from IG - are we seeing a US$ revaluation?


Hayward Tyler Group Share Chat (HAYT)



Share Price: 44.50Bid: 43.00Ask: 46.00Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Hayward Tyl
Spread: 3.00Spread as %: 6.98%Open: 44.00High: 44.50Low: 44.00Yesterday’s Close: 44.50


Share Discussion for Hayward Tyler Group


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Dinoken
Posts: 266
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.50
Can kicked to 30th June
23 Jun '17
Avg now have till 30/6 with results same day. Interesting week ahead.
 
flundra
Posts: 467
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.50
RE: Going to the wire again
22 Jun '17
Eyes peeled for any RNSs tomorrow morning or volume in the day. Right now it does feel like more can-kicking is on the way.
EdGasket
Posts: 149
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.50
Going to the wire again
22 Jun '17
Not looking good for a deal. Hope its not 'kick the can down the road' for another month.
stonedandbroke
Posts: 85
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:47.50
RE: Announcement
20 Jun '17
Also finals are out 28th June.
flundra
Posts: 467
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:47.50
RE: Announcement
20 Jun '17
A few thoughts on the possible scenarios we might now see.

The next key time/date is 5pm on Friday this week (23 June), when AVG must bid for HAYT or walk away. Extension is possible but becoming less likely as it’s already been extended twice. It’s eerily quiet, but something’s probably going to happen soon!

The possibilities include:

1 AVG make a successful bid. Who knows what value or format a bid would assume, but FWIW Wanglii’s straw poll on this chat board had a range of 48pps to 125pps with an average of 75pps and a median of 72pps.
2 AVG walk away.
3 HAYT announce new banking facilities.
4 HAYT announce operational news (orders etc)
5 HAYT announce other fund-raising. Unlikely imo.
6 HAYT release early some further information about performance from the financial year 2016/17, and/or forward guidance for 2017/18. Booking existing (delayed) orders should already be largely back on track, and new orders continue to flow, so I imagine HAYT will be keen to back this good news up asap with more concrete figures and (more conservative this time) projections for EBITDA, EPS etc.

2 to 6 could arrive in any permutation/combination. All could potentially be good or bad news (although I’m speculating it’ll be good).

WTFDIK but FWIW my best guess is that we’ll see AVG walk away, and new favourable banking facilities (including long term refinance of the term loan falling due now) confirmed simultaneously. Maybe we’ll also learn what AVG value HAYT at! The SP will yo-yo for a while as, for example, hot money chasing a potential bid leaves, but longer term investors arrive/return as stability returns, and HAYT is once again seen as a decent growth stock with a progressive divi. As an AIM small cap expect volatility, but also expect a return over time to 80+pps, all other things being equal. That’s where we sat happily in October before the current period of volatility kicked off. If AVG go away, I think that after the dust settles, the view (to quote the PM) will be that “nothing has changed” since October. Just minor delays in booking orders having an over-exaggerated impact on revenues, covenants, facility arrangements, and sentiment. However with long term banking facilities sorted, delayed and new orders completing and feeding through to the bottom line, and credibility returning, those concerns will evaporate. The focus will return to the world class business, partnerships and operational improvements from Luton etc etc. A bright future then awaits hopefully.
chanjael
Posts: 153
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.00
RE: Announcement
16 Jun '17
12 new pairs boxer shorts will be at the ready from Sunday onwards Flundra
flundra
Posts: 467
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.00
RE: Announcement
16 Jun '17
Well, my advice for next week would be:
1 Strap in
2 Tighten sphincters
3 Watch for volume
4 Expect anything
5 Be happy

re 2 and 3, check regularly for leaks lol!
EdGasket
Posts: 149
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.00
RE: Announcement
16 Jun '17
Why the talk of 'tomorrow' (today)? Next takeover announcement has until 23rd June.
graham-wales
Posts: 30,665
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.00
RE: Announcement
15 Jun '17
If RBS are on it means they know they are going to get their money back and HAYT will be back in profit. 80p if it does what you say tomorrow but very much doubt it at the moment.
EdGasket
Posts: 149
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:45.00
RE: SP
15 Jun '17
It would only be worrying to anyone over-exposed to this share who can't afford to lose the money. If you are worried then you have broken both rules:
1) Don't invest too much in one share
2) Don't invest what you can't afford to lose

I have 3500 shares so its just a side interest for me and I already made plenty trading these but of course I'd like to see a positive return on the 46.4p I paid; but if not c'est la vie.




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