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Sirius Minerals Share Chat (SXX)



Share Price: 33.34Bid: 33.30Ask: 33.36Change: 0.34 (+1.03%)Riser - Sirius Minerals
Spread: 0.06Spread as %: 0.18%Open: 32.88High: 33.34Low: 32.60Yesterday’s Close: 33.00


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PerArduaAdAstra
Posts: 1,528
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.20
RE: Trade Bill
Today 10:44
Hope. The sort of emotion that, rather than pull up the drawbridge and leave myself in splendid isolation, would lead me to prefer to work from the inside in order to be able to mould and shape an objective to better suit my needs.

per ardua ad astra
 
JH77
Posts: 1,639
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.34
RE: Trade Bill
Today 10:41
Wrt cash flow....i understand that sales of poly will commence prior to the mine actually going into production (using the excavated material extracted during construction of the mine shafts)
stokey12
Posts: 1,765
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.20
RE: Trade Bill
Today 10:40
OR/PAAA - You both seem to be working that politicians are either adults or capable of anything approaching an adult discussion. May I ask what is the basis for such a presumption.
PerArduaAdAstra
Posts: 1,528
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.34
RE: Trade Bill
Today 10:37
‘’they fail to start real negotiations’’
.....
Good morning, OR. Considering it is we who have decided to leave the union, in an ‘adult’ situation is it not entirely correct that it should be us whom suggest what we want from our decision - rather than wait for the other members to draw up for us the terms of our leaving for us? That’s hardly ‘taking back control’ is it! And since it has taken our divided government over two years since the referendum to draw up a set of conclusions anything like being able to be agreed (two senior Cabinet jobs later), I’d say it’s a bit much so suggest that it is the other members duty to ‘’start real negotiations’’.

Further, in the ‘adult’ negotiations you envisage, wouldn’t it be somewhat more conducive to productive negotiations if participants desisted from using unnecessarily inflammatory rhetoric such as ‘roll over’, when clearly neither side would be realistically expecting any such thing?

Cheers,

per ardua ad astra
stokey12
Posts: 1,765
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.34
RE: Present Cash Flow Valuation
Today 10:33
OzinHk - You need to change the Corporation Tax rate to 17% as it is due to go down to this by 2021. Also it is unlikely that any Corporation Tax will be due during the 2020/21 -2022/3 tax years as the accumulated trade losses would offset any Corporation Tax due. Also I am not sure that you are right that there would be no cashflow for the next 7 years. After production costs and debt repayments I would anticipate some cashflow.
OzinHK
Posts: 6
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.34
Present Cash Flow Valuation
Today 10:22
I would love some input on this, as I am trying to work out some valuations on potential future cash flows.

I have made the following assumptions:
Paying the full 20% corporate tax rate with no deductions whatsoever for Interest or Depreciation.
0 cash flow for the next 7 years (paying down debt for the mine being open from 2021 start to 2025 when they have repaid all 3bn of stage 2 debt). I worked off a margin of around $90. ($145 per Tonne, 10 Mta per annum at $30 per tonne cost, profits taxed at 20% then used to pay down debt load)

I then worked off them being at 13Mta for the next 5 years, then 17 Mta for another 68 years being conservative on both of those. I also assumed the average interest rate for the next 80 years as being 7%.

So at 145 per tonne for 80 years, that values Sirius at $USD 11.9BN (GBP9Bn)

Push the price up to current potash spot, leaving all else equal, values Sirius at $USD18.5Bn (GBP13.9Bn)

Happy for input, can easily change some of these metrics/correct some assumptions.
OldRascal
Posts: 620
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.34
RE: Trade Bill
Today 10:18
A no deal scenario will only arise if the EU are so worried about losing the U.K.’s money that they fail to start real negotiations. We cannot simply roll over and accept their terms without adult negotiations.

OR
PerArduaAdAstra
Posts: 1,528
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.34
RE: Trade Bill
Today 10:10
There's absolutely no chance a no deal scenario is already priced in. Despite considerable evidence to the contrary, a bull market is anticipating a sensible outcome that will minimise disruption to the economy as much as possible. A no deal scenario would cause absolute chaos — from the potential for food and medicine shortages to flights being grounded. On the trade front, without regulatory cooperation some sectors could lose their rights to operate, with areas such as financial services badly hit and intellectual property rules stymied. Further, those sectors not caught up in a regulatory nightmare will find exports to the EU would automatically be subject to the EU’s common external tariff; with all that entails.

No, rest assured an Armageddon scenario is not priced in whatsoever. No doubt a cause of much regret is that all this self inflicted harm was entirely avoidable. Anyone who voted leave without factoring in the political administration involved in untangling 40 years of cooperation and harmonisation - with all the attendant potential for chaos involved - either did so without deliberating thoroughly before coming to a decision, or worse, didn’t consider such a situation quite worthy enough when compared to their very own swivel eyed wet dream.

Cheers,

per ardua ad astra
Rosewall
Posts: 6,567
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.34
It is that time again (update)
Today 10:03
Firstly, many thanks to Sally, Ann, Jo and Paddwah (shhhh, you are incognito) for your donations. They are appreciated and will spur me on. I only know you from the boards but I thank you for your help.

With the brilliant weather, it has been very easy to make the time to get out on the hills as training for the charity walk on 11th August – just over three weeks away. I have been using my time to get fit again after a long winter. My first outing was a good long walk to the Cononish gold mine (ticker SGZ) and then on to the foot of Ben Lui. My second outing was at the nearby Ben Chonzie. This weekend I was exploring the Glen Moy area. Between these outings, I have explored the Corrie Fee nature reserve, the Kilbo Path and the Sidlaw hills.

Driesh and Mayar, the two Munros I shall be climbing, are technically straight forward. The trouble is that it takes a good hour’s walk to the Corrie Fee and then an hour and a half to get out of it. It is a pig and you are left with rubber legs and that’s before you even get sight of the Munros.

So, with three weeks to go, if you would like to sponsor me on behalf of British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK and Diabetes UK please visit the Just Giving page at https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/i-must-be-mad-to-do-this-2 . Many thanks for reading.
OzinHK
Posts: 6
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.34
RE: Trade Bill
Today 09:59
Stokey12, I get what you mean, i guess all old trade deals will be moved to the new agreement, what ever that may be, to be compliant to UK law when it happens.
stokey12
Posts: 1,765
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.28
RE: Trade Bill
Today 09:35
OzinHK - My concern is less of any action by the EU in relation to tariffs my concern is that any Free Trade Agreement would be delayed if certain amendments were to be passed. My principal concern is that say HMG are negotiating, or intending to negotiate, a free trade agreement with Brazil whihc would see tariffs agreed which are lower than in an agreement with the EU. If some of the amendments were to be passed we would need to wait while the negotating mandate is agreed by Parliament before the agreement is negotiated. That is just one area of potential delay.
duracellAA
Posts: 399
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.28
RE: Trade Bill
Today 09:30
Is the bad deal/no deal not already priced into the market as there was no guarantee that we would be getting a good deal from the EU in the first place.
NoEasy
Posts: 980
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.18
RE: Trade Bill
Today 09:28
Apologies for the grammar. In a bit of a rush.
NoEasy
Posts: 980
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.18
RE: Trade Bill
Today 09:27
"I would also hope that sufficient finance may be obtained without the the guarantees of HMG and the increased cost of that."

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sorry but that's utter tosh OF. The HMG guarantee decreases the cost, massively. Not only does it tie up a significant amount of debt to the governments credit rating, thereby securing significantly reduced interest rates on that lending, but it reduces our need to find $2.6-$3bn of finance outside of that low interest rate. I'm not saying we definitely wouldn't be able to find that funding but I reckon that could bea fair assessment is we wouldn't.

The HMG guarantee is absolutely critical to the success of this project.
OzinHK
Posts: 6
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.18
RE: Trade Bill
Today 09:25
Stage 2 would be well and truly announced by then (I would hope!) so the correlations may change, but the current Beta (rate of change in price) compared to the FTSE is 1.35. So a 1% drop in the FTSE should price in at a 1.35% drop in SXX.

I suspect that the share price will trade sensitive to potash and general commodity prices more than any Brexit deal by next March as the risks will primarily be commodity price and ability to build on budget and on time. I dont see the EU putting tariffs on imports, for example, on any Brexit deal.
northernisler
Posts: 241
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.16
RE: Trade Bill
Today 09:16
Oceanfox
I'd be interested to hear posters thoughts on the likely impact upon the ftse generally of a confirmed 'bad' deal or a 'no' deal come next March.
I'd like to think SXX would be relatively unaffected and it might even be considered a safe bet for holders of other stock more directly affected. Might investors run here for cover thus keeping our sp at stable or would we part of a stock-wide crash?
AscotMatt
Posts: 91
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.14
RE: Trade Bill
Today 09:14
I don't think we can trust anyone currently in government or opposition to tie their own shoelaces yet alone negotiate the most complex event in our lifetime. They seem to hate "Business" and thats worrying.
jesse11
Posts: 345
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.02
RE: Trade Bill
Today 09:09
Agree with this post and the previous, this government is in disarray, quite worrying, regards Jesse
OceanFox
Posts: 4
Opinion:Hold
Price:32.98
RE: Trade Bill
Today 08:52
I think it is right to bring up the threat of government incompetence, particularly on their current record. Most people, and that includes industry, would now vote to stay in the EU out of fear of that incompetence rather than any other reason. I would also hope that sufficient finance may be obtained without the the guarantees of HMG and the increased cost of that.
stokey12
Posts: 1,765
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:32.96
Trade Bill
Today 08:34
I am a bit wary of flagging this up but I have a concern that the current position of HMG is such that some of the amendments to this bill will be passed other than HMG's own amendments. Some of these amendments will slow down the process of agreeing free trade agreements. This might impact on sirius in that it cannot benefit from the agreements until they are made and could in certain circumstances increase costs as a result of the delays.
Scotman
Posts: 11,657
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
Stereophonics
Today 01:15
Treat yourself to an absolute gem of an evening. This Thursday (19th July) at the Scarburgh open air theatre.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GqQF12ETHU
NoEasy
Posts: 980
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: Myo FYI
Mon 21:31
Cheers GK. Makes sense.

Chesh, this is the info site I worked from. Solid looking equipment as you would expect and not chucked in in a morning between cups of tea hence my query reinstallation/disruption. Nice photo's and also gives a run down in pretty much layman's terms.

http://www.siemag-tecberg.com/cms/upload/downloads/en/TI_05_South-Deep_e.pdf
duracellAA
Posts: 399
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
RE: Myo FYI
Mon 20:12
The two typos I picked up have now been corrected, glad to see that they read emails and act promptly.
Mr.dt
Posts: 126
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
Youtube vids
Mon 19:55
Great to see sirius minerals highlight that already they are creating jobs through apprenticeships giving great opportunities to the younger generation. Also great to see they encourage the young to insert that young energy into forward thinking ideas! This is what is going to turn sirius into a world enterprise in 20 years time when it comes to new ventures and one of the many reasons I continue to invest. Well done sirius, what a great company!
GaiasKidney
Posts: 3,243
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:33.00
Off for a week
Mon 18:25
as of 6am tomoz. so will try with a few answers now.

Chesh. One winder runs two skips, in this case 39t. empty skip some 15t I guess. Example:

http://www.sudburyminingsolutions.com/wabi-ships-50-tonne-skips-to-saskatchewan.html

NE. Yes I was thinking about interference when they went to dumping the construction only winders (S73 PA) and install the first production winder to aid construction. I am assuming the placing of the cable drum for the first winder would have to be centred directly above the centre of the shaft to facilitate the supporting of the roadheader. but once production is reached the drum would then have to be offset to one side (~2m?) to allow space for the other drum to be set 2m to the other side of shaft centre to take it to 13.4mt/y. Two winders, four skips in a square, four corner pattern from above. sure they have a plan.

Myo/Dcell. Wsite is soooooooo obviously a v low priority. not that worried about that though. they have more important work imo.

Re 'little steps' and 6.7mt/y from one winder then it has to pay for its self from retained profit.....Then more of that from 13.4 to 20/ Haha, try selling that to divi hungry SL. He'll luv ya for it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ATB

GK.




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