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Sirius Minerals Share Chat (SXX)



Share Price: 22.40Bid: 22.40Ask: 22.44Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Sirius Minerals
Spread: 0.04Spread as %: 0.18%Open: 22.62High: 22.90Low: 22.17Yesterday’s Close: 22.40


Share Discussion for Sirius Minerals


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Superleggera
Posts: 2,082
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.40
RE: One year? 3%
Sat 23:34
So, the port and MHF is going to be an outsourced capital item from third parties. Could it be that only the port and its related infrastructure legitimately qualify under the IPA "transport" infrastructure ordinance for eligibility?

As Cranleigh states, within the prospectus total port/MHF CapEx would amount to USD 229M (included in ST1) and USD470.2M (outsourced). I'd argue that the third party port and MHF funders are taking a monetary, construction, commercial and enterprise risk over and above other ST2 funders, so perhaps merit an HMRC underwrite most.

Prost
SL (goodnight)
 
Sxx2018
Posts: 66
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.40
RE: One year? 3%
Sat 21:16
Interesting posts. Thanks.
Superleggera
Posts: 2,082
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.40
RE: One year? 3%
Sat 19:40
NE
For me, you and Cran have made a convincing case. I like your 45% CapEx underwrite average figure for live IPA projects thus far. It's as good an estimate of their potential commitment as I've seen.

Now, all we need to know is the minimum volume of sales that ST2 funders require before they will fund.

Prost
SL
Soundingoff
Posts: 2,294
Premium Chat Member
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.40
RE: One year? 3%
Sat 19:28
Thanks for all your excellent posts and research. 2018 is going to be a very interesting year for SXX.
Rebess
Posts: 2,792
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.40
Re One year 3%
Sat 17:58
The more it is underwritten the more the vulture capitalist will want their finger in the pie. - It has become the way now that risk-free/highly profitable loan investment opportunities, like PFI for example, are the most desirable. - I know it's a cynical point of view, but wait and see what clothes a pure debt arrangement wears.
sheps8
Posts: 1,612
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.40
RE: One year? 3%
Sat 16:49
Thankyou for your response to my question NE and other contributors to the subject, having a busy weekend so I'll take time to respond next week.

Sheps8.
NoEasy
Posts: 669
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.40
RE: One year? 3%
Sat 16:20
The system has substituted � for the £ sign in the below post if that makes it easier to read.
NoEasy
Posts: 669
Observation
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.40
View Thread (2)
RE: One year? 3%
Sat 16:15
SL in respect of your, "I've had another look at the IPA website and the existing projects they've underwritten. There doesn't appear to be any corollary in the percentage of total CapEx underwrite afforded to any of them, so its difficult to make any predictions using that indeterminate, overly simplistic measurement."

I carried out the same exercise in November last year and posted the following, "Large finance to secure but I expect a large chunk to be underwritten (IPA). The amount guaranteed, prior to Hinkley Point C's �2b, works out at an average 45% of total investment (9 projects generating over �4b worth of investment of which �1.841b was guaranteed). Not saying we will secure 45% but with over �36b still left of the scheme which is available until at least 2026 there is room for optimism."

Now call it luck, wishful thinking or whatever but 45% of $2.6billion gives you $1.17billion. Now didn't a certain Cranleigh post some of his musings earlier today, "If, rather than legacy, £transport£ is the criterion, I could see the MTS $858m, the associated shafts (probably part of £Mine site development£), the roadwork spend and the pro rata contingency amount all being eligible - perhaps around $1.2bn or more."

There we have it case solved. Who needs Columbo on tele on a Saturday ;-)))
LostInTheCasino
Posts: 181
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.40
View Thread (2)
RE: One year? 3%
Sat 15:38
"then, for now, anxious patience is becoming the predominant sentiment when holding SXX shares."

lol, whenever was it not the case SL?? Anxious patience has been a constant requirement here for me from day 1.

I think we will all be put out of our misery (in a good way!) over the next 3-6 months. Not long now :-)

ATB,

LITC
Superleggera
Posts: 2,082
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:22.40
RE: One year? 3%
Sat 15:08
Cranleigh
Your interpretation of the wording "includes" and "TRANSPORT system" in relation to our projects qualification criteria lends weight to NE's "legacy status" theory of our project within the IPA and goes some way toward answering my question.

I've had another look at the IPA website and the existing projects they've underwritten. There doesn't appear to be any corollary in the percentage of total CapEx underwrite afforded to any of them, so its difficult to make any predictions using that indeterminate, overly simplistic measurement.

Initial IPA eligibility metrics for calculating support are.............project is financially credible
...project is ready to start construction
...project represents value for money

The application is then put before a risk committee.

Without more informed detail on the amount of sales agreements required before ST2 funders fully engage, and the degree of HMRC involvement, then, for now, anxious patience is becoming the predominant sentiment when holding SXX shares.

Prost
SL




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