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@news
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4)Alan Green said "more news flow" and right enough, last night the Hastings ANN, 27 Mar 2019. I checked the NAIF and they do not usually lend to biz of that size. The Queensland Treasury is in charge. The infrastructure funding eg $50m for an airport. So, not sure how they managed it. So, NAIF is doing due diligence. This may be the 1 PROJECT on the go.
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I certainly found last night's HAS news interesting. I was fairly surprised that the Australians didn't seem phased though! Perhaps they need a day or two to take on the news...
One pattern consistent with the Founder - he like to look for very big projects:
Case in point - Sonora : 10% of potential world supply.
HAS-6% of world supply.
Now Gas in Oz.
I dont follow tiny or medium resource deposits.
So, if there is a transformational one in the suite of 10 or 2, then look out shorties.
@news
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MY OVERVIEW - Observation:
1) Notes - From what you posted on BCN, lets say the notes are $4.78m = £3.67m
This has to be paid by early Dec 2019. It could be re-financed again, one cant rule that out.
However, lets say it is paid via the norm. Or they could even get a strategic investors like the Sheikh etc?
]===
Come early next week we should have paid back a third of the total. A strategic investor on board might be interesting. Though I suspect we'll either realise some decent profit from one of our assets, or alternatively if we are able to get a good move on developing one of our up to 100% Australian assets then we might do a placing on the back of share price appreciation as the value of our direct assets begin to be better reflected in our market cap - assuming all goes well!
A.Green: Said news flow - next day NAIF - my.
So, which may be the deal and ?
EMH has been talking for some time to the like of the major car makers. However, maybe wonga wont come out. Why?
German govt had to in the end offer funding. So, maybe, he does NOT have the connections to the big cheese/s?
As for Sonora, if the legals have been set up to be able to sell w/o P.S, well, that*s going to be a blinder?
Hope there?
@news
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Sonora is now waiting for funding.
Advancing.
EMH is behind - Europe is going to be next.
]===
It wouldn't surprise me to hear that unlike what BCN is posturing, EMH has no intention in taking it to production - their game plan edging towards a sale to a major or an EV company - meaning we could realise our potential there sooner than our JV's in BCN which might be destined for the long game...
It was in a tweet.
Sonora per Mail said at the time, it could supply 10% of global supply - that is not small.
The FT story re: Livent wanting to buy Argentine lithium [brine] and Australian assets - they want long life = MAJOR projects eg Tier 1. PLS [Lithium Aussie] is over $2b mkt cap from recall?
So, any BIG PROJECT of 100% is MARVELLOUS?
All to do with NPV and of course funding.
@news
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The Founder said he did not agree with the name change.
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I don't remember him ever saying this. He seemed quite happy with the change of name to KDNC from what I remember. Got a link?
@news
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All the caps I got of the Aussie firms are from tonight*s Hotcopper ASX site before their open.
]===
Thanks. They might have the wrong number of shares, but more likely they are using the bid not the mid, to calculate the cap.
Sonora is now waiting for funding.
Advancing.
EMH is behind - Europe is going to be next.
Wild cards - imagine finding the next ? via 100%
On-topic for KDNC - REM. The Founder said he did not agree with the name change.
@news
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I have listed REM>KDNC*s 10 projects but not Clancy as I seem to not see it on the KDNC website.
]===
We may have sold out, or my records could be wrong, but for your information in addition to what you have listed I have us down as owning:
CLY: 140m shares
NMX: 160k shares
LGC: 749,817 shares
Additionally we own some of Leogang, 10% I think, but I presume that project is parked for now.
All the caps I got of the Aussie firms are from tonight*s Hotcopper ASX site before their open.
CONTD
Alan Green: One project-strike a DEAL & small project - TRANSFORMATIONAL.
This we all know. Any junior explorer could just one day find a project that they paid not a lot for ie did not cost an arm and leg and bingo. Eg GGP - Havieron : 9 holes drilled at a cost of some £2m and at Hole 5, industry noticed.
After hole 9, Newcrest farmed in US$65m. Aaah, did not take a genius - that one as the intersection would have given the game away + the grades etc.
WILD CARDS
Where is the deal?
Where is the transformational ? In the 10 or more to come?
I think it is in one - 2 of the 10.
Green mentioned the names.
Outlook: Dont discount the ....Look at the tweet tonight from the Founder.
News, 27 Mar 2019 Wed
Strategic Review REM>KDNC
DYOR. Please check. IMO. No warranties.
No final $$ done yet.
Preliminary overview and review.
@news
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JOINT VENTURE
1)Bacanora Lithium [BCN,London] 2.77% & 30% JV [not Ventana, Mexico 100% BCN-Stage 1]
Status: Awaiting Financing
19.75p, Mkt £26.56m.
NPV US$1.25b
...
ASSOCIATE CO:
European Metals [London EMH] - Cinovec, Czech Republic Lithium {Largest in Europe]
19.2%. Kiran Mozario sits on the board, hence with 19.2%, classed as Associate co per a/cs.
16p. Mkt Cap £23.46m
NPV US$540m [approx]
]===
Might be worth clarifying that the Sonora NPV stated above is pre-tax and based on $11,000/t LCE whereas the EMH NPV is post-tax and based on $10,000/t LCE.
I have listed REM>KDNC*s 10 projects but not Clancy as I seem to not see it on the KDNC website.
All stocks are analysed and its how accurate one can get to the modelling of value [normal variance].
MY OVERVIEW - Observation:
1) Notes - From what you posted on BCN, lets say the notes are $4.78m = £3.67m
This has to be paid by early Dec 2019. It could be re-financed again, one cant rule that out.
However, lets say it is paid via the norm. Or they could even get a strategic investors like the Sheikh etc?
2)From a biz point of view, the strategy for REM/KDNC is to "trade" its way out as the commodity stocks are almost at the bottom [juniors] - Mickey Fulp*s recent interview is helpful although one could already see that.
3)EV is now readying and Alan Green said that EMH is "fast advancing."
That we know from the German govt*s push re: recent news of funding.
4)Alan Green said "more news flow" and right enough, last night the Hastings ANN, 27 Mar 2019. I checked the NAIF and they do not usually lend to biz of that size. The Queensland Treasury is in charge. The infrastructure funding eg $50m for an airport. So, not sure how they managed it. So, NAIF is doing due diligence. This may be the 1 PROJECT on the go.
How big is the JV area - then we can get an idea of multiples or the same as the Stage 1 project.
From one of my posts, Hasttings rare earth could supply 6% of GLOBAL demand from recall and it is going to Germany. For a govt to fund 100% OF THE PROJECT is really wow?
5)BCN-Alan Green said they have 2.25%. So, that appears not strategic so may go? Alan Green talks of 19% in EMH so it sound as if this is BCN 2.
6)Lenigas told investors years ago, that the BCN JV was structured in such a way legally, it could be SOLD without BCN*s approval. Need to confirm or re-check so dont quote me. That is what I recall.
7)Macarthur Minerals - Cameron tweeted a pic of him at Macquire*s - he does not tend to post irrelevant pics so may be there to discuss etc. The Macarthur stake is pretty strategic at 10.1% [DGR has 10% +- of Solg*s £770m mkt cap so Tier 1 in this range anyway] Iron per Fortesque just posted appears "hot".
8) REM Greenland - On the KDNC site, there is a map with these red lights flashing. GREENLAND is listed as one of these lights on the world map. Then, under projects, it is CLASSED ON ITS OWN MERITS AS KDNC GREENLAND sort of thing. So, they appear to consider it on its own merits. Look at GGG*s mkt cap, quite reasonable but was higher. Iron the peer has already got through so GGG is next per my post below.
9)Australia- LOOK at A40*s MKT CAP vs Kidman [think Kidman is supply Tesla?]. A/c to Haplo, A40, Alliance Minerals is waiting for off-take. Genius - the grade is sought after ie Bald Hill-Alliance Minerals $A40.
One to watch.
Then the other 2 in NT, one of which is near the CXO [see my post below].
These could be quite o.k but need to investigate further.
ALAN GREEN
-2 things he mention [pl
@news
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2)Hastings Technology Metals [HAS, Australia]
Joint Venture [Stage 2] -YANGIBANA Rare Earths, Australia
A19.5c, Mkt Cap A$136.1m
NPV A$447m, Annual av free cash flow A$137m.
News: NAIF [Australia Infrastructure Fund-Potential Funding-Due Diligence] 27.3.19
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I've got number of shares in issue as 778,075,683 which @A$19.5c give a market cap of A$151.7m
I've had a quick look through and it all looks about right to me from memory! Good work.
@news
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Investments:
1)Macarthur Minerals 10.1% [Canada] - Iron Ore project in W.A {Deal with Glencore 21.3.19}
C11c, Mkt Cap: C$32.7m.
NPV: $2.65b {12.2.18} . Capex: US$335m
Status: BFS & Financing etc
]===
I believe we have 30m shares. There has been dilution since we purchased. I'd stick with what we are reporting in our RNS's "Cadence holds approximately 10% of the issued equity interest in Macarthur" rather than your 10.1%. Or use 30m shares if you are valuing based on shares.
I'll see if I can spot anything else worth me commenting on.
Thanks. I will start to type.
Great about Greenland REM.
We should find out if our licence renewal was granted soon. Take a look at:
https://www.govmin.gl/en/current-licences-and-activities/status-for-licence-applications
Perhaps as early as next week. Fingers crossed! ;-)
IRON ORE
"Fortesque Andrew Forrest believes the GLOBAL iron ore mkt will see a shortfall, and a price JUMP to $100/t after Vale suspensions. Forrest said other producers may not be able to increase output but Fortesque is evaluating options."-7min ago, Wed 27 Mar 2019 https://twitter.com/AmberMining/status/1111010219813933058
RARE EARTHS
LITHIUM
COPPER
in the mix for EV metals in the Cadence portfolio.
Investments:
1)Macarthur Minerals 10.1% [Canada] - Iron Ore project in W.A {Deal with Glencore 21.3.19}
C11c, Mkt Cap: C$32.7m.
NPV: $2.65b {12.2.18} . Capex: US$335m
Status: BFS & Financing etc
.
2)Auroch Minerals 6.7% [Australia]
A$7.87m Mkt Cap @6.1c.
JOINT VENTURE
1)Bacanora Lithium [BCN,London] 2.77% & 30% JV [not Ventana, Mexico 100% BCN-Stage 1]
Status: Awaiting Financing
19.75p, Mkt £26.56m.
NPV US$1.25b
2)Hastings Technology Metals [HAS, Australia]
Joint Venture [Stage 2] -YANGIBANA Rare Earths, Australia
A19.5c, Mkt Cap A$136.1m
NPV A$447m, Annual av free cash flow A$137m.
News: NAIF [Australia Infrastructure Fund-Potential Funding-Due Diligence] 27.3.19
ASSOCIATE CO:
European Metals [London EMH] - Cinovec, Czech Republic Lithium {Largest in Europe]
19.2%. Kiran Mozario sits on the board, hence with 19.2%, classed as Associate co per a/cs.
16p. Mkt Cap £23.46m
NPV US$540m [approx]
100% PROJECT
KDNC Rare Earth Greenland
Licence near World Class Kvanjefeld, Greenland [GGG]. See post below.
[GGG:ASX - A5c, Mkt Cap A$58.89m]
NEW PROJECTS - up to 100%
Argentine - Hard Rock, San Luis
3 LITHIUM ASSETS - 4th Mar 2019 RNS
-1 in Western Australia {PICASSO} near the high profile Bald Hill Lithium mine belonging to Alliance Minerals [A40:ASX -A18c, Mkt Cap A$241m]
To see how large A$241m mkt cap is, one could look at Kidman Resources [KDR:ASX] at A$1.2, Mkt Cap A$505.9m,
-2 in Northern Terr, Australia including Litchfield project near Darwin, contiguous to Core Lithium ground [ASX:CXO] at the Finnis project - CXO A5.4c, Mkt Cap A$38.19m.
-Alcoota Project, 145km to Alice Springs, NT, Australia.
DYOR. Please check as there can be errors or not the latest figures or typo error. Just a rough listing.
News
Wed, 27 Mar 2019
ALAN GREEN INTERVIEW ON CADENCE MINERALS, FORMERLY REM
on 26 Mar 2019 https://twitter.com/Brand_UK/status1110545306666631169
Mr Green gives the latest overview of KDNC [Cadence] projects & inc raising £1.3m @0.15p.
Typo error in header: Should read "100% and not 110%.
Greenland Minerals [ASX:GGG] announcement, 27 Mar 2019.
-"The co added to its share price yesterday after shaving off US$38m off its civil engineering cost."
-"GGG expects to mov onto project financing & development after securing mining licence and follow a similar path taken by its NEIGHBOUR and PEER, Ironbank Zinc Ltd [ASX:IBG] which HAS A LICENCE for its flagship project."
-"$1.59b NPV"
-"43.4% IRR"
-"37 yr mine life drew on JUST 10% of the project*s JORC compl."
-"Planned open pit"
-"Financing cost US$831.9m"
-"Partners & Contractors-Shenhe & Tetra Tech."
KVANEJFELD RARE EARTH DEPOSIT -GGG {Rare Earths & Polymetallic}
" 1 of the more SIGNIFICANT GLOBALLY.."-Dr Mair [MD,GGG]
Link: https://twitter.com/proactive_au/status/111059198629625857
CADENCE [KDNC, new name for REM] lists REM GREENLAND [legacy from Founder*s days] as:
**** "GREENLAND RARE EARTH PROJECT"***
-"Will watch the progress that GGG makes over the coming years as it develops this WORLD CLASS ASSET."
From Cadence: https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/greenland-rare-earth/
Posting on REM as it was an REM project under the Founder, as Chairman of REM.
News
Wed 27 Mar 2019
DYOR. Please check as there can by copying errors.
As I said, REM was mentioned on Twit about 5p.
Zest plc was a shell and it was taken over and renamed REM. Over in Canada at the time, it was difficult to raise funding for mining. The Founder of REM was approached and he went out there to inspect Sonora Lithium in Mexico belonging to Bacanora, Canadian listed.
That was how REM entered into Sonora. via funding the drilling. Looking at the size of the licence and the almost continguos mineralisation that had a more surface expression, it was not hard for investors like Phalen to figure out that the lithium at Sonora was huge. Others said that all that was needed was scooping and trucking to the mill. Added to that was the fact that Sonora was close enough to the USA.
Indeed, subsequent drilling and technical reports have now proven that Sonora has 300 yrs of supply of lithium and that if in production, it will be No4 after the big 3 in lithium.
Investors also figured out at the time, that REM would takeover BCN. Indeed, it did happen and REM offered 88.5p but it was rejected.
This is history now.
So, I was looking at how the projection of 5p came about?
Today, Bacanora listed in London now has a share price of 17p with a mkt cap of £23.53 million with shares in issue at 134m. Bacanora is SEEKING FUNDING of some $400m currently @ Fri, 8 Mar 2019.
I looked at some of the industry lithium benchmark examples that is in the news eg Nemaska and Lithium Americas.
Nemaska is seeking funding for its lithium project also in the $400m range. The share price of NMX [Nemaska] is Canadian 37 cents with a mkt cap of C$317m. The 52 wk low is 27c and high $1.48. At the exchange rate of £1=C$1.7 approx, Nemaska would have a mkt cap of around <£200m.
On the other hand, Lithium Americas has obtained funding from their Chinese partner, Ganfeng. Lithium Americas*s share price is C$5.60 with a market cap of C$500m. 52 wk low is C$3.74 ahd high C$8.85. So, the mkt cap is approx £300m. [With funding]
So, it appears that the market itself is pricing Nemaska at £200m without funding and with funding £300m for Lithium Americas that has just started work.
REM at 2.25p = £95m [history then]. So at £200m=4.5p.
No doubt, REM would have to prepare documentation if the takeover were to proceed under the Takeover Rules.
History appears to show that 88.5p [no doubt M & A worked out fair value as is norm?] was "fair value"?
So, that appears to be the "good news" investors were talking about.
I never attended London AGM*s, REM parties so I have no knowledge of that.
This looks at what happened then and what the market is attributing to lithium projects currently.
So, this ends the topic of REM and the question etc put to me on Twit about REM.
Fri, 8 Mar 2019
Not editing as rushing off.