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It was only a matter of time, good news all the same
BOOM Investors Chronicle BUY.
Just out.
The herds will be arriving here soon. The NAV is increasing by the day. Interims will be very interesting in November especially if they confirm the return to shareholders as previously stated. I wonder what the EBT is valued at now.
Simon Thompson thought it had back in November, the problem then, being Íde. https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2018/11/07/mxc-s-cashed-up-to-do-deals/?utm_campaign=Copy+of+ICDailyEmail_new2016&utm_source=emailCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=&plckFindCommentKey=CommentKey:d5a31376-4cba-48b9-ab8e-63facf44a24b
He commented again in May. https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2019/05/09/mxc-returns-to-trading-profitability/
Both recommendations were a buy to a premium to NAV, now a lot higher. From a punters viewpoint, he has a following, and will return to recommend a premium to NAV. Personally, I am invested in the Ravenscroft and Liberty Global aspects, which may encompass Íde, and management opportunism.
Long term friend of this guy, has the corner been turned, back on the radar and ready to buy at or below, we shall see.... GLA..xxx
The books are now closed for the year. At this particular juncture it seems a question of mathematics, all other things being equal, and I post on that basis. I would be surprised if the private companies were now valued at less than they were in February, and there are now only the two listed companies. The combined increase in value of Íde and Adept4 investments since last results to 28th. Feb is £15,083,963. With 67,203,349 shares in issue it amounts to an increase in NAV of 22p. per share, or from 97p to 119p. It is broad brush, granted, but I believe it to be a reasonable way to 'guesstimate' pending results. But that is purely for my own purposes, and it can be checked. In any event, there is ample headroom here for investors, particularly by the time one adds a 'decent' premium for the future, as with any other company.
Then I hope it will move right on up to £2 after it's had a rest.
After that who knows.
I bought a few more here today.
My first target is £1.60
Yes my trades not showing
LSE has stuck since. https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary/GG00BGK3LD00GGGBXASQ1.html
End of trading year on Saturday. There is 'news' to report for the period, of the better kind.
Surprised this hasn't moved again today still under nav
I have a £2 target here.
NT to buy now, they soon catch on............
Make that £10m or so. And do not forget Adept4.
It was well undervalued at last results. Since then, the rerate at Íde alone has increased the value of MXCP shares there from their low by over £9m. Would normally be seen as a tremendous result, but here - nothing so far.
Very strongly held and quite hard to buy.
This will be re rated soon and should step up to around £1.60
Way undervalued right now.
The problems with them appear to be resolved, and Pi's have shown their confidence. We have a small start so far on the recovery here today also. Sagacity, as mentioned by Sentrum, is one of those that could make it's way into MXLG, and if the listed companies happen to do so MXCP will not have to shell out as much for them, as part of their responsibility for MXLG acquisitions bearing in mind their holdings - in fact nothing at all with three quarters of the price being picked up by others. They would bag a profit at that time only on the existing share price, a higher one on any premium paid for the acquisition. And the loan notes would fall to be dealt with. It does not matter, but it will be interesting to see the terms of the Adept4 loan notes bought from BGF. One would think they would be substantially the same, but may be varied twixt Adept4 and MXCP. The Adept4 and Íde recoveries have provided some excitement over there, and it is more than welcome here, but I continue to anticipate the next MXLG acquisition.
The two ugly sisters as I call them appear to have turned a corner now thank god
Just a small point , I was digging around in Sagacity ‘s accounts and spotted 2 large dividends paid recently, all be it on the back of a bad year but they had a great year previously. There would be a sizeable lump for MXCP from these which will obviously show in the accounts.
If investors want a part of the Liberty Global deal, and I believe that will come, the only way is through MXCP. And MXCP gives investors the opportunity to take advantage of all the investments, albeit at lesser gain if Ide or Adept go on particularly well ( but at decreased risk ) against the private portfolio companies. I have simply sought to update the chat board in what I believe to be a factual way to form a basis for further views, of whatever kind. I believe my views are conservative ones, and longer term holders will know much more about the background than I, and may care to post. I am as confident as I can be with any investment, in fact at the highest point on my personal confidence scale. MXCP I think are also publishing conservative achievable expectations at the lower end of the scale. It is well nigh impossible to buy now at this price, which is well below value. I will go as far as to say that with the positive sentiment you mention kicking in, once the overdue rerating starts investors are likely to only be able to buy meaningful amounts by fill or kill, or telephoning their brokers.
Thanks Raleigh for those detailed posts. I’m invested here too and share many of your views. I would note that the past performance of investee companies (particularly IDE) weighed very heavily on the sp here. The 4x decline in MXC sp (from near £2 to near 50p per share in today’s terms) was sudden enough. However MXC have since backed IDE to the hilt (both financially and managerially) and now are more strongly geared than ever to their turnaround, which appears to be underway, and may be spectacular. If successful, we should see a a strong increase in NAV together with a very positive change in sentiment over future sp value here. I wouldn’t stop there though, because in addition, the Liberty Global deal offers MXC a clear strategy and customer for such prospect investee companies. I have bought into that vision, I hope it proves to be right!
I bought my first shares in Mxc Capital over a year ago at a time when shares were trading at an all-time low ( primarily because of the loss in value of Redcentric warrants ) In view of the partners personal shareholdings in the company, and expertise at buy and build, I concluded things must turn for the better, which in my view they have. With several share purchases, I have achieved only an 8% return - scarcely stellar, but I believe the price will soon advance at least closer to the last reported NAV of 97p ( which must surely be higher when next reported at EOY ) when renewed attention is drawn to the company through RNS or pundit comment, or pi's decide the investment case at this level is as strong as I believe it to now be, and having regard to recent events. It remains my view that the main drivers will be the Stephen Lansdown backed Ravenscroft tie up in the GIF ( MXCP have 8 investments there and 4 close to completion ) and the Liberty Global joint buy and build venture ( 3 acquisitions made and more to come, which may or may not include current investee companies ) I do not 'do' predictions - the share price is in the hands of current and potential investors - yet I think it fair to say that as we stand a price is merited of a premium to any current NAV, say £1plus. Moving on, the full process of value accretion ( including integration and so forth ) will take several years, including to the point of sale of interests in MXLG to Liberty Global. But MXCP are also opportunistic, and it is not beyond the partners' wit to pull off a quick deal as with Calyx. The owners are benchmarking their performance against what they have achieved since listing, ie. a return of 2.2x across all investments over 4 - 5 years, and so subject to the usual caveat of things going reasonably well, it is possible to see a market cap/ NAV of £200m and a commensurate share price by end 2024. It will be a long journey, but with a reawakened management, a mapped out future, cash in the bank for acquisitions, an EBT with future rewards tucked away to avoid dilution and squeezing the share price, and means of returning cash to shareholders from trading profits under discussion ( I think that will not amount to much ) it should not be an arduous, nail-biting one.
The MXCP model is to invest and take an active part in growing businesses to a point at which they can be sold at profit, through buy and build, and then reinvesting the proceeds into other ventures. This takes time, effort and cash for salaries and the like from central funds, in the case of some companies swallowing any profit from the related business activities. The last results showed a return to a small profit at trading EBITDA level, and excluding exceptional costs total administrative costs ( board, advisors, etc. ) were 1.1m for the 6 months. Hazarding £2.2m for the full year, that sum is covered every year on paper by the minimum £1.56m. return on loan notes ( recognised annually though not physically payable until end of term ) and ongoing £1m p.a. fee income from the Ravenscroft and Liberty Global partnerships, leaving a margin of £0.36m for any exceptional costs arising. Thus, as a generality, operating costs are secured under existing arrangements, allowing the increased value of investments to flow undiminished into the company bank account on successful exits, pending re-investment. It is a good position from which to concentrate on current and future investments.
I notice apparently scant regard on the chat boards for the price MXC Capital will exact for supporting and turning around Ide and Adept4. ( and not before time, resulting in previous deep gloom for MXCP shareholders - but the tide has turned and the share price is now on the way up again ) Ian Smith and Tony Weaver, together with other members of the concert party, are not philanthropists, and their efforts are geared to enhancing their personal fortunes through their individual holdings in MXCP, their interests being aligned with ours. I therefore revisited the loan notes, without which both Ide and Adept4 would likely not have survived. There are even suggestions on other forums that the companies are debt free. They are not, with MXCP being the major lender( Ide market cap £18.6m, debt to MXCP £8m plus interest, Adept4 market cap £7.04m. debt to MXCP 3.5m plus interest ) So both companies are quite heavily in hock to MXCP as one would expect, though this is not unusual and will aid their future success and intended increase in value of the MXCP portfolio, including those two. But it is an important, and I believe largely unrecognised, part of the MXCP investment case, catering for a substantial part of central costs for several years ahead. Loans have to be repaid, and the interest on them.
Ide - 8m. Loan notes of £8m @ 12% with first charge over Ide's assets compounded and rolled up = £15.7m at end of period, ROI of £7.7m. over 6 year term equivalent to £1.28m. pa. Even If redeemed early, all interest due until end of term will be payable to MXCP together with the arrangement and exit fees payable anyway and totalling 5%, ie. another £0.4m.
Adept4 - £2.1m Loan notes of £3.5m @ 8% p.a. = £0.28m. p.a. and may be compounded and rolled up with repayment of the original sum. This assumes the notes will carry similar terms to those with BGF, but they may well be varied when full details of the potential Cloudcoco acquisition emerge ( and they may or may not carry a similar share purchase option mentioned in my previous post )