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TSX Lithium explorer International Lithium Corp prepares to drill at Raleigh Lake Watch Now

TSX Lithium explorer International Lithium Corp prepares to drill at Raleigh Lake
Exclusive: Hardman & Co Investor Forum - Severn Trent, Calculus Capital, Volta Finance, Residential


Falcon Oil Share Chat (FOG)



Share Price: 14.125Bid: 14.00Ask: 14.25Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Falcon Oil
Spread: 0.25Spread as %: 1.79%Open: 14.125High: 0.00Low: 0.00Yesterday’s Close: 14.125


Share Discussion for Falcon Oil




View all FOG Messages

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WetWater
Posts: 582
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.125
RE: No June drilling
22 May '19
Hmmmm - “*********************”. W W W Research-Tree dot com
 
WetWater
Posts: 582
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.125
RE: No June drilling
22 May '19
Regarding the Cenkos report - The full report is 39 pages long and can be accessed (after sign-up) at *********************.

I am am still traveling and haven’t accessed the report. I have reviewed the Cenkos Summary Investment Case and it was quite positive.

Maybe Namu will review the full Cenkos piece and report back to the board.
Naminanu
Posts: 35
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.125
RE: No June drilling
22 May '19
And on the bright side, POQ gets a thumbs up from Wet the Oracle Water. At least we have that, at a bare minimum. LOL!
Naminanu
Posts: 35
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.125
RE: No June drilling
22 May '19
Still haven’t read the Cenkos report. Will do so tonight. To clarify, the price target is gbp 41 (not cad).
Watch Falcon trade below the gbp 14 placement price today! POQ screwed retail investors, so why should the institutions be any different? ;)
schlemiel
Posts: 2,186
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.125
RE: No June drilling
22 May '19
I agree this is going lower. There's a seller. I've no idea who it is or why they're selling though I have, at least, convinced myself that it's Petrohunter related. I could be entirely wrong
bigones
Posts: 414
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.125
RE: No June drilling
22 May '19
I believe David Close said about 5 million over run. Trying to find it for you, also I don't think the rig hold down would be free, maybe POQ can shed some light on both issues. Plus Santos permit timeline will give us a better view of just how long till drilling. Again buying below 20 cents still working well, I know a lot of people said it wouldn't happen, but we are at 19 cents and IF drilling doesn't start in July ,then we will be even lower. Good field, big risk, possible big win, accumulate slow and cheap.
schlemiel
Posts: 2,186
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
22 May '19
It's gonna be July for drilling restart

https://gisera.csiro.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Water-16-Progress-Report-May-2019.pdf

The proposed end date for the above CSIRO exercise is end-June so one would assume that before any drilling is sanctioned then this would happen following submission of data by the CSIRO to the NTG
schlemiel
Posts: 2,186
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
22 May '19
I'd like to read the Cenkos buy note titled 'Full Steam Ahead'. I wonder if POQ will be able to get his hands on it and make it available on the FOG website?

If anyone does maintain regular contact with POQ then do please prod him to make this available

Thanks
WetWater
Posts: 582
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
22 May '19
BO: help me out here- I don’t recall ever seeing what the cost overruns were for the first three wells. You indicate you know - just a ballpark figure please. I wouldn’t think a cost overrun would be calculated since these were uncapped wells.

The rig is not on standby - Origin/Falcon have reserved this rig for the 2019 and 2020 drilling seasons - as I understand it the cost will be the same regardless of when it starts.

When should have Falcon factored in the new regulation cost - they are just now being estimated? Case in point - there appears to currently be a discussion going on on as to how to dispose of waste water - a major cost factor. New regs seem to be one of the factors that escalated drilling cost but it’s tough to estimate the cost of their impact until they are finalized.

The biggest cost increase was likely caused by the 2 year moratorium delay. Falcon had operated under the assumption that the budgeted amount for these capped wells was very generous - turns out drilling cost escalated more than Origin/Falcon originally factored in. As you can see by the easy raise this was just a bump in the road.

What is important is that drilling begin ASAP. The guidance for this looks to be late June or early July. It’s far too early to be crying the sky is falling. As we discussed the other day, the Santos nod will give us a clue as to Origin’s timeline.
bigones
Posts: 414
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
22 May '19
Nice job, but what about cost over runs, first off last wells ran over projected costs, a rig on standby costs, and that is 1 or 2 months behind. Costs for the toughest regulations in the world most likely not adequately factored in.
WetWater
Posts: 582
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
21 May '19
Hey OrsonM. Thanks for handling the “high math” question. Seems there are posters who want to twist and turn everything they can to cast a pall over Falcon.

I’m ready to see drilling get going if for no other reason than to give these guys a new focus on which to spin their negative outlook.
schlemiel
Posts: 2,186
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
21 May '19
Oh, there is no question that I am a f-ckin' idiot. That goes without saying. Like mi old Dad used to say, 'If thee had a brain thy'd be dangerous'....I accepted my intellectually diminished status many years ago

It's a strange share this one but now we can see 'on the ground' activity ramping up for the big day! And Morrison. I love that fella. A Labour win could've upped the investment risk here as they pandered to cli,mate change bullshitters. I sent Morrison an email congratulating him on his victory and for saving Aus from the Marxist virus. Cheeky sh-t, hasn't even bothered to reply...unbelievable
WetWater
Posts: 582
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
21 May '19
Schlemiel - As we all know this board has had this RS discussion ad nauseam - this is about the only thing Poods knows and he is not going to let it go. I have had extensive personal RS discussions with POQ on two separate occasions - I know exactly what his thinking is and I am in complete agreement. POQ has quit taking his’ calls/correspondence - Poods looks to have become a nuisance on more than just this board.

Lucky you for being tasked with this investigative assignment since you are the “new guy” on this board (??Lol!)
Poods
Posts: 157
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.125
RE: No June drilling
21 May '19
Schlemiel-

Despite your handle, you are the last one this board properly designated by your handle.In any event, you can either answer an important question if you know, or if not, find the answer to this question. Has FOG not been qualified to have a reserve split for many years? If so, this is probably why POQ continues to hide the answer with his silly "the shares will only go down"! There is zero proof this is correct, as much quality research on the subject, seems inconclusive.

So, since POQ and Ann refused to answer my question regarding the reverse split qualifications, perhaps with your chat board credibility and following, you could find someone to answer the specific question as to whether FOG simply has not qualified for reverse split status the entire time I brought it up. If indeed FOG has NEVER qualified and POG and the board knew all along FOG would not qualify, we will really be getting closer to the bottom of this important question. This is important, since if we could already have had a reverse split, FOG very possibly be in stronger condition for the unexpected, which just happened. Instead, we shareholders have had the answer withheld by being dancing around the question with the trading concern issue.

Fingers crossed, hope you and / or others on the board may know the answer to the requirements question and set the record straight, as the non-professional approach to the question of simply not answer a SHAREHOLDER'S QUESTION is not an appropriate response by management, including board members.
OrsonModesto
Posts: 296
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
21 May '19
False, they will need to pay roughly $10 million additional to finish out the program.

"The estimated gross capex for STAGE 2 and STAGE 3 is c.US$130 million. Under the terms of the Farm-out Agreement, Falcon Australia is carried for up to c.A$113 million (~US$80 million) for the costs of STAGE 2 and STAGE 3, equating to c.US$24 million net benefit to Falcon, with Falcon’s net cash contribution estimated at US$15 million, before contingency."

So Falcon's estimated cost to complete the program is around $15 million. They will pay $5.5 million with this recent placing. So around $10 million left to pay. (Not accounting for the $6 million in the bank.)

It's simple math, really.
bigones
Posts: 414
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
20 May '19
I believe you, can't raise enough money on a 19 cent stock, to cover expenses. With drilling delayed , results will be put off into next year and then Falcon will owe big money. Can't have a billion shares out and raise cash to drill 28 million dollar wells , at 30 percent next years wells will cost well over 30 plus million to Falcon.
schlemiel
Posts: 2,186
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
20 May '19
Poods - I think the timing of the placing was dictated more by Origin and the change in costs related to the upcoming exploration. I suspect it forced POQ's hand somewhat but the dilution is trifling compared to the eventual value that our 30% will become following appraisal and further exploration (assuming successful, obviously)

We shouldn't underestimate the importance of Scott Morrison's majority victory yesterday. The Greens were smashed right back in their box and have been absolutely neutralised. This stock's been derisked massively as a result and I doubt Canberra will tolerate any more bullshit from Hogan and LTG
Poods
Posts: 157
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
20 May '19
Bigones-

I have been telling the company to do a reverse split for years; but all on deaf ears. Sometimes people seem to enjoy shooting themselves in the foot. When I have asked a number times in the past, there was never once an intelligent response, for that matter, no real response, except the shares may trade down.

About a year ago I wrote a note here that after a frustrating search with Canadian regulators, I suspected but never had the regulations cited for me FOG simply was not financial qualified to do so. This was another reason I had pushed to get POQ and the board to consider such a transaction. He NEVER confirmed whether the problem was internal, i.e. puny balance sheet or something else. The benefits were explained by me and the only response was the shares might go down. Well, they are indeed down some 50% and we missed the chance (maybe) to raise more money at higher prices and same dilution. Now, our forward thinking board has panicked and diluted while raised roughly half the money we probably could have. It is good thing the geology looks pretty interesting for us, that a knowledgeable operation is drilling and POQ can regurgitate what he is told. I know a number of the chatroom listeners think me nuts, but at the highest institutional levels on Wall Street many years ago, very large institutions thought and paid me well for good advice and not my opinion of what golf club we should use.
coma
Posts: 42
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
RE: No June drilling
20 May '19
he said on Friday at a meeting with brokers it would be July
bigones
Posts: 414
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:14.25
No June drilling
20 May '19
POQ has been now hinting at July, officially said mid year. 10 days since comment period over for Santos. No decision yet. Sure looks like a reverse split needed by beginning of next year. 100 to one would make me happy.




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