Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
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HITS, it was only a rough calculation. If I remember rightly , I think that the original bid of �1.40 per share plus debt roughly came to �1 billion. That was mainly the debt of course. The figures ( done on the back of a matchbox) all depend on that original bid having substance. If you are right and it never happened, then what Avanti would be valued at,if a bid ever came in,is anyone�s guess. Cass
It is possible to create various scenarios and one could be the appointment of Kyle Whitehill. His previous contract was short term (1 year I believe) and who is to say this isn't another? Taking charge of a loss making company would also include a thorough investigation and personal due diligence with the possible decision that the company had no future as a stand alone company. He had been in discussion with Rupert Pearce shortly before the GM but that could mean anything. A G2 meeting or something more? The likeliest reason was nosiness on the part of RP. Apparently RP a better talker than listener. Maybe he's under stress.
Cassius, I've not crunched the numbers re "then and now" market cap and debt, but I suspect you have... $550m less debt but more than 12 times the shares in issue. Thing is, I'm not at all sure how real that 140p offer from Inmarsat ever was. They were certainly very quick to distance themselves from any offer and state they were no longer interested at all back in late Jul/early Aug 16 - so I'm not sure that alleged 140p bid in any way represents a valid start point for any calculations as to current value as a potential acquisition. AVN has assets for sure (tin in the sky - now including H4 as you point out and spectrum rights). What it doesn't yet have is any commercially viable track record as a going concern - which is why IMO it's only worth considering the value of its assets and not its overall business.
HITS, we had a bid �1.40 and we turned it down when the debt was much higher than now. I believe an equivalent bid now would be around 30-35p. That is just based on market cap + debt. There was a far bigger debt before but a smaller market cap because of far less shares. Also when the �1.40 bid came, H4 was not in the sky and that has got to have added a lot more value. Romaron, thanks for the reply. I appreciate it. Cass Romaron, thanks for the reply.
Hi Cassius, I wouldn't wish to raise false hope and I have been saying for some time this is a binary bet. At the GM an officer of the company told me he had bought more. He could have been lying of course but why would he? The numbers attending were larger than at the AGM sans bondholders and there were more Avanti employees there. I suppose the main reason that keeps me here is Paul Walsh and the actions of the large shareholders (ex bond holders). There may be nothing left for us and the same shareholders/bondholders have a second tranche of debt giving them the opportunity to obliterate us at a later stage. This has been mentioned and the debt for stock may only have been a stay of execution. Throwing us a crumb would have been self-serving and possibly a sop to employees. I don't expect the company to exist a year from now because I expect the larger holders to jump at an opportunity to unload at a better price if one happens. H4 and the spectrum have value and it's more a case if anybody wants it and what they'll pay . I'm hanging on in case there is anything left for us. I have no idea of the value but if you asked me to pick a number I'd say it will bear no relation to today's price because those (ignoring Caledonian) left have few/none counterparties to trade with for any size. The daily amounts are risible and even the MM has forgotten them calling an auction if they are surprised by an interest. Our future (imo) will be in an RNS of a fait accompli. Us remaining PI's have no influence.
Can't see this being sold as a going concern for any worthwhile value at the moment... not with the level of (sure recently reduced but still sky high) debt.. The assets however (in-orbit hardware and spectrum rights) would be of interest to more than one. But what an asset sale would return to PIs, God alone knows. Nope, to deliver a return to PIs, AVN needs to weather the current funding shortfall and prove that it can operate profitably/
Romaron, you have sold to me the idea of Avanti being sold. Ever since the AGM that you attended you seem to be convinced this is the way things will play out . What price do you think ? 30p ?
.....there are always opportunists in the wings. I'm no expert but H4 may have some value to other satellite companies. Something convinced the bond holders to agree to a stay of execution. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-inmarsat-stocks/inmarsat-rejects-echostar-takeover-bid-says-it-undervalues-firm-idUSKCN1J42EC