J And P Avax R Company Research (0DO2)

In this note, we show revisions to our forecasts and our updated valuation of AVAX ahead of the company’s FY24 results (expected April 2025). AVAX’s H124 revenues and EBITDA were up 50.4% and 97.5% y-o-y, on the back of a raft of contract wins over the previous few years. The company has also guided that its €3.2bn project backlog is at a superior margin to its current revenues, implying that margins have improved and should continue to do so. We had reflected this in our prior estimates, but the mix between older and newer (higher-margin) projects has been slower than we had expected. We have trimmed FY24e revenues by 11.7% to €648m and raised our adjusted EBITDA estimate by 19.8% to €103m to reflect the updated sales mix. We expect further strong improvement in the margin, driven by recent high-margin wins.