Member Info for YoungHarry

Thanks Paddy, I'm not betting against GGP unlocking Scally's secret stash of mineralisation...

BTB Agree, on the basis of the Numis resource estimate alone it could double from here.
More with helpful step out results
More should there be a HAV05 in Scally
More should POG rise
More should NC make a move, next January being the obvious moment when they could take the opportunity presented by the shut down to announce all of the drill results available to them and MRE.

In 2019 we've seen from NC's actions and comments, HAV is going to be a mine.
In 2020, could GGP intercepts at their Scally targets make it a gold district?

On the basis of your track record on this BB, if you say 20m oz then its 20m oz.
With 20m oz, value would be worth over 10p per share at $100 per oz in the ground with POG and Scally upside

After the NV farm in deal, GH said the market just hadn't understood the significance of the deal and referred to the residual values (given NC being a low cost producer and proximity of Telfer).
At that point there was no guarantee NC would progress beyond their $10m commitment.
At this point they have set a timetable 'to support the potential delivery of a maiden resource' and the market still hasn't understood the significance of the deal.
Working backwards, a share price of 3p suggests a 5m oz resource, GGP's 30% being 1.5m oz at $100 per oz in the ground.
A trusted poster at Reddirt (who has a flawless record to date) is now talking about a 20m oz resource.
Now consider the impact of gold at $2,000 oz, what would the market value of GGP's in the ground share be then?
Now consider the impact of a successful drilling campaign at Scallywag.
Significant upside here as matters stand with POG and Scallywag tail winds.
If there is a better investment in the market please let me know!

Let's say $100 per oz in the ground.
Current MC $134m represents 30% of a 4.5m oz.
4p = 6m oz, 6p = 9m oz

Link to post 1794 is a must read for anyone with an interest in GGP.

The analysis is described as 'fag packet' but as most readers would agree, it's a sophisticated fag packet.

One scenario based on 1.5g per tonne with 40% mineralisation equates to 8.6m oz.

GGP's 30% = 2.58m oz, say $100 per oz in the ground = circa £193m, current market cap £89m

Broker target of 4p beginning to look a little conservative with the rest of 2020 promising more drill results, first incepts from Scallywag targets and possible bid all adding to the considerable upside.

On the question of the difference between the responder rates among US and European patients, it is clear the latter results were the deal maker and the former results were not a deal breaker.

Given how many new shares have been issued, the percentage of the drug handed for the new trial and uncertainty of FDA approval of the new trial design, the share price is showing remarkable resilience

Hi Chartbuster
Some poms have worked it out and filled their boots. Corporate action during 2020 would not surprise me as NC has been signalling to investors the significant strategic importance of Hav.

At a market of cap of £67m or $84m, a 10m oz discovery would cost NC an average of $15 per oz.
This would comprise $9 per oz for 7m oz (acquired from the $65 farm in) and $28 per oz for the 3m oz balance.
A 5 m oz discovery would cost NC an average of $30 per oz.
At 4p per share (the in house broker's target price), market cap $178m
A 10m oz discovery would cost NC an average of $24 per oz ($59 per oz for the 3m oz balance),
A 5 m oz discovery would cost NC an average of $49 per oz ($118 per oz for the 3m oz balance).
Under all scenarios NC would acquire the rest of the GGP portfolio at nil consideration, would capture full benefit of sunk investment in Telfer processing plant and rising POG (Citi forecast of $2,000 per oz within two years).
NC therefore face a dilemma between waiting for more assays (to mitigate risk of paying too much) and the market making them pay the target price.
In the meantime, investors can reflect on the scale of mineralisation at Hav, on one dimension alone 748m of mineralisation (from 426 - 1174m) is just short of the combined height of the Empire State Building with the Shard sitting on top). It's big, it's cheap and its going to change hands, just a question of when and for how much

Were you too busy sharpening your knife to listen to the presenters yesterday?

Company said the MAP is nearly ready to go but - for various ethical reasons - incompatible with running a PIII trial at the same time. You can interpret this decision how you like, but the options include they've decided not to invest £1m in the MAP, they are confident of a deal within what would be a two year long MAP.

The RNS makes it clear, initial visit for the open study was used as the baseline.
The primary objective was safety and they delivered on that.

The RNS makes it clear, initial visit for the open study was used as the baseline.
The primary objective was safety and they delivered on that.

The company's strategy which combines clinical, regulatory and commercial activities is to bring Lupuzor to the market. To this end the company 'continues to engage with potential partners as well as consulting with regulatory advisors on potential pathways to market.'
Clinical progress has been through identification of sub groups with higher responder rates in the PIII trial, most notably patients in the European cohort with elevated levels of anti dsDNA positive auto antibodies, a bio marker of disease severity. Of 79 patients in this sub group, responders rates were 71.1% on active and 48.8% on placebo, clinical impact 22.3%, p value 0.0218. Of 43 patients in the sub group with low complement the responders rates were 68.4% and 43.5% respectively, clinical impact 24.9% and for those 34 patients anti dsDNA positive and low complement 71.4% and 40% respectively a clinical impact of 31.4%. In the Life Sciences Division report, 'Disease Modification in a spectrum of severity for Lupus Patients,' Navid Malik concludes, due to the outstanding efficacy results seen in the recent PIII study including only anti dsDNA positive patients should generate a positive outcome for the next Phase III study. Robert Zimmer noted that remission observed in the PIII trial was unprecedented, the remission rate of 32% in the open label study at the final visit compared to the initial visit is extraordinary. Regulatory progress: the above analyses have informed an optimal design for a second PIII trial as the second leg of the existing Special Protocol Assessment as follows: patient recruitment, patients with anti dsDNA positive status / biomarker for severity and standard of care with steroid dosage regime starting high and reducing throughout the study. A new study protocol is under discussion in a regulatory policy environment that is open to reviewing the failed Lupus clinical trial regime. Commercial progress, the clinical and regulatory developments present an attractive package for potential commercial partners. The structure of a deal could be based on an licence or a special purpose vehicle (which would allow the company to invest in part of the second trial costs and attract a higher percentage royalty). With a clear target patient group, supportive clinical trial design, small wonder Lanstead is confident of a deal. Along the way, the company will realise the currently stranded £2m investment in Incanthera, unlock the value of Elro and Ureka and subject to a rising share price maximise funding from the recent Lanstead deal.

It is clear IMM requires a new regulatory pathway to stand any chance of success with Lupuzor, this is the message from Navid Marik's analysis and no doubt a requirement of any interested corporate partners. Such a pathway to allow for a focus on patients with the biomarker and regulated standard of care in place of clinical trial standard of care which appears to inflate the placebo effect. This explains postponement of the MAP and new focus on the regulatory / corporate partner discussions.

Tim stepped out of the discussions between IMM and Incanthera as he was conflicted. He would not have taken part in any of the discussions and not in the formal (and utterly bonkers) decision to invest the £2m. Today the cost to shareholders of that decision is laid bare. Tomorrow, the shamelessness of the directors responsible will also be laid bare. None have earned their grossly inflated pay.

jd3291 For we know Reddirt is a bloke in Stoke who sits at home in his bedroom all day or chap called Rupert who works for hedge fund in Mayfair, either way how can you possibly trust what anyone writes on BBs

The directors will no doubt be looking forward to the AGM when they will be able to explain and justify at length and in detail the £2m investment in Incanthera. Of course they won't, so instead expect to be distracted by two dead cats - results of the extension study (Wednesday am or close of business) and Navid Malik's report.

Have a look at Greatland Gold (GGP), DYOR. Key points, last year they drilled a world class intersection at Haverion in WA, this led Newcrest to enter into a farm in deal. Drilling is underway at Haverion and two of GGP's other assets. A seller has depressed the share price to below the post farm in deal announcement levels. The bet is that there will be good news flow between now and end September / early October.