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Any chance we can move on from worrying about the Lanstead deal?
It's really not a problem and it's nice to know the day to day running expenses are covered for another 18 months and the exploration is also funded via JV. Therefore, there can be no doomsayers coming along and talking placements.
Yes, the necessary selling by Lanstead will cause a drag on the SP but only as volumes are low at present. We will still climb when the news pushes us that way and I'm confident that volumes will increase on that news to make that selling irrelevant.
Let's concentrate on the positives and ensure visitors to the chat are seeing all the good reasons to invest being discussed.
Agreed Swervington.
One thing that is quite obvious is that HE1 is a popular traders play, and that creates opportunity due to the volatility, and danger of jumping on intra day highs and hype before the traders exit for the day.
Be careful not to get roped in and check if there's any real reason for sharp rises other than trader pumps.
Hunniford.
With respect, why are you concerned at how many shares Lanstead are or aren't selling. It won't change their obligations to make payments to Oriole monthly, based on the sp at that time.
If they choose to sell more or less each month they are taking a risk of being caught out. If they sell more than the agreement and the sp rises significantly, they will come unstuck.
Ultimately, good news will bring volume and that will raise the sp.
Same as last time, MMs going after stop loss.
Beware of people who tell you this is just a manufactured drop, MM's playing games and all that.
They are ususally desperately trying to sell their shares before you twig.
Back above 2p soon...imo..!!
On the basis of what? I did say the mc was extremely high for a company with no sight of revenues or profit, particularly on AIM atm where there's no value generally applied to hope and speculation.
I'd expect to see 1p back again in the coming weeks.
'Well Wolfie I guess you'll be buying over 3p then.'
I won't. If it goes straight up I'll get over it, and good luck to you.
There's plenty of cheaper options about atm, it's just going to take a real shift change to get punters to AIM to move them.
I suspect this will drift a lot lower before any decent return. The mc is very high for a company not near producing revenue and profit. It is unual for AIM shares to have hope value atm.
I would expect the traders to move on somewhere else if news isn't pretty constant and when the volumes fall away it will return to a more sensible level. It's on my watchlist, but won't buy at these levels.
I agree Kutzz, there is absolutely no reason why Lanstead would want a lower sp, as long as they are selling at a similar average to the payment to Oriole. Whether that's 0.2533p or 10p makes no difference.
In fact, they have 83m bonus shares that will be worth more as the sp rises.
Yes Ginger, although the 100% centres around the benchmark sp of .2533p and not 0.19p.
So we'll have recieved less than average over the first six months, but should be substantially more from now on.
I would recommend a reread of the 1st August RNS on the Lanstead agreement, in the light of recent news. I know at the time I was very worried by it, and buying into the 'death spiral' rhetoric.
It seems rather more shrewd now we can reflect that the BoD would have been aware of the 'realness' of the impending JV agreements and effect on the sp.
With 1 billion shares at it's disposal Lanstead will want to achieve the best sell price possible or can sit and watch their investment grow as the sp rises. They have no obligation to sell as far as I can see.
Their obligation is to pay ORR a monthly amount which varies according to the relationship of the sp to the benchmark of .2533p. Should the sp sit at the benchmark, they would pay the sum based on 38.75m shares at 0.19p which is £73,625.
Obviously this was not good for the first few months when ORR would have received substantially less per month, nearer £25k I should think.
However, if the sp averages 1p over the 24 month agreement, ORR will recieve £7.0m against the agreement, and the related shares are already baked in to the current market cap.
I would guess Lanstead will limit risk by not getting too far adrift of the 38m shares sell a month as that would leave them vulnerable to a sp drop if they had not sold enough or a rise in sp if they had sold out too many at a lower price.
Therefore, volume is key, as with approx 20 trading days per month, 2m Lanstead shares sold a day would be a minimal disturbance.
Apologies if all very obvious, but i think it augurs well for ORR, and I'm confident the scheme will not weigh the sp down at all as the positive news flows over the remaining 18 months of the agreement.
I agree, volume is key to this moving up in good time.
Judging by the SP I would think Lanstead may have offloaded some today, in a controlled manner as they won't want to cause any large drops.
Savvy investors will soon scoop them up and maintain the general uptrend I'm sure.
Bought some more myself today, would like to have the control to ignore the markets for a couple of months and come back for a surprise but I know I won't be able to. I am excited to see this develop into a rare recent AIM success story this year.
Not a spectacular rise today but another blue day with reasonable volume means more shares have moved from the hands of profit takers who got in lower (fair play to them) to stickier hands who are more likely to stay around for the sustained rise to come over the next weeks / months.
It's all good, and the news incoming will keep this moving nicely. A big 2024 in store for ORR and it's shareholders.
Yes, I would agree Kutzz. I'm no chartist but it appears that ORR is establishing higher highs, which is a good way to stabilise a climb.
It's extremely difficult to sustain interest in any AIM shares for more than a few days beyond news atm so it's good that there are still a number of confirmations due in the next month or so.
Yeah, I'm not an advocate for spread betting in any way, just making an observation.
Unfortunately AIM is held back by several factors, but a lack of liquidity which prevents institutional investment at the lower levels and the practices of some BoD's are up there.
It doesn't mean there aren't success stories though, and I'm confident Oriole can be one of them, it just means it won't be valued at what we may believe is it's true value.
There's plenty of upside from here though, several multiples I'd like to think.
There is certainly some confidence about, and hopefully this will now push on beyond .3 during the week.
I just did a dummy sell and was offered .23 straight away, which I see as a really good sign. If those shares weren't wanted that would have gone NT. A steady rise throught he week would be ideal.