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nyforever
I took a lot of flak regarding my O/T comments and other observations.
I did not notice a slew of shareholders coming to my support.
I have not sold a single share.
It amuses me to see how many of those naysaying, non-shareholding @rseholes have disappeared, probably never to return.
My definitive comment might be "Be careful what you wish for!??!"
FIN
Lots of talk about cashflow, which is so important.
And the one well that might significantly improve our finances is CLix --1001 in Palermo Aike.
We are maybe a week or two before getting an update.
If it is an economic or hopefully, even a great result, I do wonder how quickly it might be connected up to a gas export pipeline in order to make an appreciable difference to our income??
WT
And relating to my last post it occurs to me that many investors might not remember the meaning of P50 (mid case) or PMean from their school/college days, or even how they might be the same or different.
So I have found an "explainer," and can I suggest that you go to the last section entitled "What is the Best Estimate?"
It is all there.
https://blogs.dnvgl.com/software/2016/12/p10-p50-and-p90/
Again, I hope that this clears up the statistics used.
It is worth (for a bit of fun) though considering what the P90 of this well might be, given the location of the top of the Springhill??
WT
trellis35
I had intended to ask a question at last Thursday's "Time with the Team" session.
Sarah, kindly responded yesterday morning with this answer to one of my questions.
The question was related to CLix – 1001, the Capo Limite well.
This is what she sent to me:-
In our RNS of 19th December we said ““Operator volumes for gross (100%) gas initially in place (GIIP) for the Campo Limite area are 48.9 bcf (P50 mid case), with a Pmean volume of 68.5 bcf. Given the conventional nature of the Springhill reservoir, the Operator estimates a recovery factor of approximately 70%. The Operator’s estimated geological Chance of Success (CoS), based in on analyses of other wells in the area, is 70%, with the identified risks being reservoir presence and deliverability.” This is very clear.
The CoS of 70% was given to Echo by the well operator.
Given that we have our own geological unit, one might presume that they checked the efficacy of the supplied number.
I cannot imagine that they would quote this number without a little homework.
I hope that this helps.
WT
And because this is a fine Monday, a minor top up - just to take advantage of the very low SP.
WT
nyforever
We will have to spend money, in order to recoup higher revenues.
That breakeven point may be one year hence, or even longer.
The current WTI price is $45 before operating, transportation, taxation & selling costs.
The last time we did a series of workovers, we did not see how the end point of the exercise panned out.
If there was any medium term benefit, CGC got to enjoy them but we did not see the numbers.
And for those who have not been involved in workovers, after one there is normally an increase in production. Then over time, depending how quickly the new perforations get blocked by sand/debris from the formation the well production reduces until it falls to a number approximating to where you started from. Some wells can be a terrific success and some not so much. I am not saying that Echo should not go ahead with a workover program, what I do say that expectations should be reined in as the benefits can be marginal.
We must trust Echo on this workover program, but be aware that there may well not be a big jump in our revenue stream.
And I welcome a cost cutting program in Santa Cruz and a desire to increase production. The process of well optimisation particularly with an oil well and the proximity of the oil/formation water boundary can be a dangerous game to play. Once coning occurs, that can be an oil well ruined. Do we really think that the previous operators or Santa Cruz owners were so technically inept that they could not balance a well correctly?
My guess is that they took production in the last few months of their ownership to the very edge of increasing watercut (that is what I would do), but heck - what do I know??
WT
We have several, actually 3 bites of the cherry in Western Tapi Aike which is the "raison d'etre" of Echo Energy.
We have a chance of something in Palermo Aike.
I put no value on Bolivia, the Eastern Tapi Aike well or working over the 15 SC wells.
And if you look at the cost of a well workover.
The cost of the "hire of the workover rig.
Re-perforating the well.
The cost of a hydraulic fracturing operation.
Etc.......x15. Yeah, that'll be right!
And why did the previous owners not do it.
I know, because they did not have a team of top class geologists, such as we have.
So far, 5 wells and nothing economic to date!!
And Western TA is what I am waiting for.
The rest is pure window dressing with some income from SC, that may fall off the edge of a cliff in a few years time.
And the SC income will get chewed up by Mr Parsons and his friends unfeasibly large salaries.
Agree, or disagree but that is what I think!
WT
trellis35
I have had much memorable Welsh Lamb, but just the once, some Spring lamb from the Lammermuir's that came very, very close.
Daffodils on order, replacing the sad bunch that just got turfed out. Maybe some Raspail-Ay 2015 or Clos des Cazaux Sarrasine 2016 Gigondas, Jaboulet Crozes Thalabert 2012/13 or even a Bellene Cotes de Nuits 2013 - who knows??
I do have some Pauillac from Reserve de la Comtesse 2014, the second wine of Chateau Pichon-Longueville Lalande which is said to be drinking well. I always check with Cellartracker.com for the inside track on how a wine is drinking. It is astonishing the range of views one reads from the posting community. One does however learn which ones to trust and those to ignore!
Have a great weekend,
WT
No. of workover wells 15
Increased production per well 20 bbls/day
Nett profit per bbl to Echo $10 (current oil price $45/bbl)
(after operating costs & if applicable – taxation)
Days per year 365
Increased profit per year
15 X 20 X 10 X 365 = $1.1M approx
But the cost of the workover program must be taken into account.
So reperforating, hydraulic stimulation, electrical submersible pumps and the cost of the workover rig to be factored in.
Costs shared 70%/30%
So just playing with the published numbers on a Friday afternoon, taking a conservative view.
WT
The questions that I submitted to Sarah were:-
Why have the shareholders NOT BEEN ADVISED of “targeted volumes of hydrocarbons” on CLix – 1001,the Capo Limite well.
Why was the top of the Springhill, not where predicted on the Palermo Aike well?
What difference does the position of the top of the Springhill make to the interpretation of the Palermo Aike licence?
Was the seismic associated with this well inaccurate, and if not why not?
Does the position of the top of the Springhill in the Capo Limite well have implications for the rest of the licence?
Is the Petreven 205 drilling rig on its way to drill our first well in Western Tapi Aike or have CGC other plans for it?
We had a quote from Echo saying that “We hope to have a revised and updated investor presentation available in due course.” Wouldn’t it have been better to say “We WILL publish a revised and updated investor presentation in the NEXT MONTH/SOON. Why the obfuscation, you are the executive team and I expect positive descriptors rather than vague expressions that are employed that mean very little or nothing!!
Many investors are concerned regarding the drain on the Echo bottom line (Santa Cruz assets income) by the high salaries of Mr Parsons and his friends. Also, a raft of share options for what, we do not know? Echo is having a tough time at the moment, so might these salaries be substantially curbed for the moment until we are able to afford them – if we ever can? And currently, what is the total ECHO salary bill, including those paid to executives? An approximation will do!
What is now, the after-tax income that Echo will derive from Santa Cruz production, as our 70% share? What might it be after a round of prudent cost cutting?
CLix -1001 will shortly undergo, a simple inflow test. Why not go to fracturing the strata? Do we think that an inflow will produce an economic flow of hydrocarbons? If it does, will we then go to fracturing? Has a fracturing program for this well been devised? If we do one, after the inflow test; how long will mobilisation of equipment, materials and personnel take before it can begin?
Echo has drilled 6 wells so far. Has Dr Bessa been in attendance for any of these drilling operations? Has any Echo employed representative been on site for any of these drills? If not, why not?
Why have we never had any videos/photographs/blogs of these drills? They would be great PR which so far, we have been lamentably poor at doing!!
Do we KNOW, if any of the 4 wells we drilled in 2018 and handed back to CGC are now in production?
Can someone post and tell me if ALL of these questions were posted.
Were they answered?
WT
All is pure conjecture!
Only when a well is connected to and delivering to an export pipeline or flowing into a road tanker, it is just words.
We had a quote from Echo saying that “We hope to have a revised and updated investor presentation available in due course.” Wouldn’t it have been better to say “We WILL publish a revised and updated investor presentation in the NEXT MONTH/SOON. Why the obfuscation, you are the executive team and I expect positive descriptors rather than vague expressions that are employed that mean very little or nothing!!
WT
I have looked back on my posts and I did post that the session was 14.00 - 16.00.
Did the timing of the session change?
WT
I have given up.
What's the point.
An email to Martin Hull a stone cold certainty.
WT
I have just emailed 13 questions to Sarah, who says that she will publish under "ADMIN!!"
I still cannot access session due to "quota exceeded" error message.
This is an absolute joke.
You would think that the quota (number of participants) would be a big number?
WT
Not able to log in.
I get a "quota exceeded" error message.
So I cannot even see what has been said!
I will keep on trying as I have 13 questions to ask.
WT
14.00 hrs this afternoon for the latest "Time with the Team" session.
Quite rightly, there has been extensive criticism of Echo on a number of fronts!
If you wish to have a question answered, then prepare now and formulate your inquiry, register and log in!
I posted all the details, when the session was announced.
It is easy to post on this board and **** Echo off.
It is quite another thing to write emails to Martin Hull, book a one -to-one phone call with him or even post a number of questions on these sessions, moaning here achieves little.
It is the opportunity to make your views known to those in charge at Echo!!
WT
MrMarkyB
The chat on the share has not ended.
I imagine that it has taken a break until we have new information to discus.
For example, Echo might want to take a different take on how much they tell us about the Santa Cruz assets?
They may wish to update us on the proposed Workovers of Santa Cruz wells.
They may wish to tell us whether they are going to cut costs, across the Santa Cruz portfolio?
It may be that they can find a way of increasing production from the Estate without doing harm?
They might find a way of telling us why it was a surprise that the top of the Springhill was not where they thought it was.
And why was that? Was the original seismic inaccurate? Did no one think to do a new seismic before drilling CLix-1001?
And given that we now have misleading seismic on all of Palermo Aike, what are the ramifications?
For example, does that mean that the CPR that was the basis of our purchase of the Santa Cruz assets, be not worth the paper that it was written on. Note that may be in a good way, but might we need to do a new seismic survey? And at whose expense?
The Petreven H-205 drilling rig has now finished operations for us in Palermo Aike, will it now next be tasked to the West of Tapi Aike to drill our first well there?
And I find it frustrating that the website maps/info on Santa Cruz are minimalist and totally lacking detail.
If Echo wish to attract new investors or even retain the ones that they have, substantial effort is required to demonstrate their willingness to engage??!??
And given that Echo advised that of last Monday, the testing of CLix-1001 in Palermo Aike had yet to begin.
And it might be well to be aware that this will be a simple inflow test.
If not successful, they may deem it appropriate to fracture?
So we might get results from the inflow test at CLix-1001 within 3 weeks?
If they then wish to fracture the well, they may have to plan that operation, if they have not already?
And once equipment and materials mobilised, maybe another month for results?
So potentially, no holding of breath down in Santa Cruz???
So plenty to get stuck into there!
O/T
A miserable result in Cardiff, not assisted by a dropped "Gary Owen" and an interception - the fault fairly and squarely at our own door!! We deserved no less.
A decent enough win for Scotland in Rome.
Ireland at HQ might be a long day for whoever wins. Heavy rain this morning might mean a heavy pitch with 14 mph winds.
When I see how often the TV pundits get their predictions utterly @rse about face, all that I will hope for is an entertaining game. But all the players will want is to WIN! Enter stage right Owen and Andrew Farrell!! lol
WT
trellis35
I did not post on a GB Fino, it was the GB Matusalem Oloroso that is terrific.
Just hoping that there was no misunderstanding.
WT
trellis35
The Madeira Company that is most generally available is Blandy's.
Tesco stock Blandy's Duke of Clarence Madeira at £12.50 per bottle.
It is full and rich but not too heavy.
I don't drink Madeira normally, but if I am making a Madeira sauce to go with a beouf-en-croute, I will have a cheffy sip!?!lol
I do subscribe to the theory that one should never cook with a wine that you were not prepared to drink yourself.
Port, Madeira, Sherry, Sauternes & Barsac are out of fashion, so they are great bargains currently.
Some years ago, I found an amazing 100 year old sherry for a friends Christmas present. Cost £14!!
If you want an incredible after dinner tipple, then go no further than Gonzalez Byass Matusalem Oloroso.
Not cheap at £20 per half bottle, not easy to find but well worth the trouble. Once tasted, never EVER forgotten.
WT
WT
bskiny1
The Tesco website says that the current Tesco finest Vintage Port is from the 2007 vintage. This was an excellent vintage year marked 95/100.
The 2009 vintage marked 90/100, so good but no better. This seems to be the one that you purchased and maybe the 2007 at Tesco sold out and they are now on to the 2009.
The Port vintage to look out for when released is 2011. That is rated at around 97/100.
All of these scores are general vintage quality, some wines may be better, some not so much.
I bought a shedful of the Taylors 1994, that's enough for me.
From the current Tesco range, I would have gone for the Grahams Malvedos Single Quinta Port 2005, not a great year but Graham's do NOT KNOW how to make a bad port. Last Christmas Tesco had a terrific Dow's VP for £20 per bottle. If you like VP, buy at a years worth Christmas, that is where the bargains are to found.
Taylors Single Quinta is Vargellas, if ever you see that one at a decent price, snap it up!
Hope this helps.
WT