The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Well, I've no idea what prompted this one I just hope its for real this time and not the P & D team returning for a third bite of the cherry....either way i'm back out again as this price will do me nicely. Not saying the spike has finished but its too nice a profit to turn down without there being a good reason for the rise
Just for once.....and only once.....wait for it.......I agree :) We could debate 'bottom' V 'pause' but who am I to quibble. We'll make a techy out of you yet x
Hope everyone had a good weekend, thought I'd have a quick look at where we are before next week. Support well and truly broken and which ever tool you look at from a T.A. perspective this is only going one way. Looking for a test of 9.25 in the coming week, but I'm reluctant to trade it this time as i'm not sure it will hold but we'll see what the volume (if any) is like. https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/hzd9y6yX/
Thanks Bram not bad so far taken profits a couple of times on trades and sold enough of the last batch for a free carry on the balance. As for U69, Bogs, Dave and 6z..... You can laugh all you like but T.A. and sound risk management prove pretty successful for me. As you well know T.A. has predicted the top and bottom here pretty accurately several times now. Just because you don't like what T.A. says it doesn't make it any less relevant, but if you think insulting people on a 'B.B' who have a different perspective to you is a better investment strategy than studying a chart and debating T.A. then good luck to you.
Well I said it would break 10.5 again but my prediction was a couple of days late as I thought we would get there by Friday, anyway I see we are down to 10.35 today. As you can see from the chart, now we have broken well below the 200ma, made a lower low from the 22nd of august and broken the support lines there's nothing in the way now to stop the drop further, 9.25p being the next target and then 7.05p. As to timescales its hard to say as the volume is so low but I'd anticipate next week sometime for the test of the 1st target. https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/hzd9y6yX/
If the NAV had recovered post the reporting period they would have said so in the update as they have done on previous occasions. If anything as sterling has strengthened since the reporting period the likelihood is that the NAV has fallen further. Also I remember 9.25p very well....it was the price I said it would fall to when you were all telling me I was talking rubbish :) The same as I was a happy seller at prices over 13p when you all told me it wouldn't pull back again. Anyway whether you hold or sell is up to you but looking at the chart you can see support has been broken again so I think, as it has done each time in the past, it will move back down to the next line of support. I reckon It could well move below 10.50 by the end of the week, the 200day m.a. might provide minimal support but I don't think it will hold it and the next target is 9.25p again. Whether 9.25p provides support this time will be very much dependent on volume but in the absence of further news the NAV of 7.05p is an inviting target and if we get there it will attract some volume and perhaps bring back some much needed momentum. https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/hzd9y6yX/
I can buy 75000 at 12p and the rest are readily available on neg trade...check the MM's order sizes. But if your talking about the trade at 10.20am this morning it was a sell that's why the price was marked down afterwards
That is correct, however the NAV at 7.24p means the value of MAFL's investments with L.S. valued at cost is £2.5 million. Taking the share price of 12.5p values MAFL currently at £4.35 million. Therefore the market has already factored in a premium on MAFLs investment in L.S. of £1.8 million. That's more than 10 times their investment of £170K...an excellent return by any standards however none of that profit has yet been realised and it won't be realised until or if they can sell L.S. That's why MAFL at the current prices should be considered as a punt, there is certainly potential here but its important to also factor in the risk associated with the current valuation.
Hi Zan. Its the value of MAFL assets that actually creates the risk here. The current NAV or valuation of MAFLs assets is only 7.24p as per the last announcement from the board. We are currently trading at appx a 70% premium to that NAV so the market has already priced in some appreciation of the asset due to the potential of L.S. If something goes wrong the share price will immediately fall below the NAV and hence my final target of 5.50p. Most investment vehicles trade at a discount to their NAV rather than a premium so the 5.50p is not unreasonable if something goes wrong. L.S. undoubtedly presents good potential but people are getting carried away with the valuation put on it. Don't forget MAFL's investment in THC was only appx £170k, so even if they realise 10 times their initial investment the effect on MAFL's NAV will still not bring it up to the current market cap. That's why MAFL is still a punt. If L.S. doesn't come off people could easily lose half their investment here and that risk is balanced against the potential return if L.S. comes good but even the board have said there is no guarantee at present that the resources in L.S. can be economically extracted....it has potential and the drill results to date are encouraging but nothing is guaranteed. That's why in my opinion MAFL at present is only a tradable share with a high risk profile rather than a solid long term hold and consequently why I would be very cautious about extending any investment beyond a modest % of my portfolio. If you can trade it to get to a free carry all well and good but I would exercise sensible risk management on anything beyond that.
My opinion is that put simply you're in 'No mans land' currently there is no market so its just drifting along in the range. Technically its virtually impossible to say where this will go next in the short term as there is insufficient volume to give any meaningful interpretation of the market and the next likely move. Any traders that were playing this share should either have moved on or are sitting on free carries with their remaining shares. At this stage its a red or black bet as to whether you will make or lose money. On the longer term picture, technically if LS comes good it will move up but it needs to break 13.5 before you will generate any interest. If LS doesn't come good initially it has to break 9.25 on the way down and then there's nothing in the way of 7.24 and then 5.50p. Either way news will dictate the next move as its the only thing that will create a market. There are people here that talk as if LS is a done deal, but if that were the case the share price would be an awful lot higher than it is now and you would have traders still playing the share, as for anyone on the other side, nobody is going to short MAFL when volume is this low, so in terms of sells its simply a question of whether people get fed up waiting and decide to move on to employ their capital elsewhere. So if you've got less than 5% of your capital here and your happy with a 50/50 bet then I can think of worse places to be. For those who have more than 5% of their capital here....well they aren't going to listen to me or anyone else as they've already convinced themselves that they know better than to adopt sensible risk management or look at a technical opinion. From my own trading perspective i've got a free carry on my remaining shares which I've put a stop loss of 9.5p on. If LS comes good i'll make some money if it doesn't i'll sell with everyone as the price collapses. The difference for me being that my shares have cost me nothing, so i've got nothing to lose....a nice place to be with a red or black bet:) Anyway good luck with whatever you decide. I'll pop back in from time to time to see whats happening but unless the P & D crew reappear there's really much worth commenting on. Here's the trading chart but at this stage it doesn't mean much.....TA needs volume and there just isn't any here at the moment. https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/hzd9y6yX/
Home again after a lovely trip, the Rhine cruising was ok, but I loved the Bavarian and Austrian Alps I highly recommend it if you get a chance to visit that part of the world. Nothing much happening here, the volume is so low its just bouncing around in the range but still honouring the trend lines. The only news that will move this is the sale of L.S. but I wouldn't anticipate that happening until they can produce a JORC and prove viability and that will require a lot more drilling. So in the absence of any news other than drill updates I expect it to drift towards the NAV but the way its going I think any real movement either way will require a lot of patience. https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/hzd9y6yX/
Sounds like a plan..... I did have a buy order in at 3.25 but i've since pulled that and looking for a retest of the 12 month low of 2.63 but it'll need to bounce and hold before I buy...theres just too many things that don't add up at the moment.....anyway good luck with your punt...ATB
Hi Jolly, you still in here or did you get out on the last little spike? Whats your thoughts on where next before the finals are out?
If they are so cash rich then why cant they find £1 million to repay the CULS it makes no sense. If you had several million in the bank would you pay 7.5% per annum to borrow money?....Until there is greater clarity over the real state of their balance sheet I won't be touching this with a barge pole!
I'd be very very careful, I've seen this several times before with GNG appx 200 - 250K buys go through in a short period of time pushing the ask and the bid up quickly, P.I.'s jump on board helping it along then the original buys get dumped and the bid pulls back to a new low. I wouldn't mind betting that you'll find there are significant CFD put on to capitalize on the the spike and subsequently CFD shorts put on to capitalize on the fall. It stinks of market manipulation. Just to be clear I have no positions in GNG long or short though I would potentially be a buyer sub 3p but it would have to hold the previous low of 2.55 before I'd buy. The only thing that would change my perspective would be director buys and they havn't bought any since 2012 despite the mega low prices. All looks very dodgy to me.
I've been reading through the latest RNS and I fail to understand why people think this is going to go up. The facts are they had £400k cash left (now the burn last year was over £400k...but lets be conservative and say between now and when they make an 'Investment' they burn £50k leaving £350k....at the current share price, that means whatever investment they make has to return over 2000% before the NAV reaches the current market cap. However good DB is...he isn't going to do that any time soon, yet people seem to think despite the atrocious history of VMP that this is going to make money. I'm sure I must be missing something so please enlighten me someone. Thanks
Be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of months. The £1million CULS is due for repayment soon, and at the current share price. Hanafin aren't going to convert to shares so GNG will need to come up with another £1 million. Given we were told in the last trading update that they have already borrowed another £0.8 million this year taking there bank borrowing up to £1.8 million I wonder where the extra million is going to come from? If Hanafin don't convert (which would have been bad enough at the equivalent of a 36% dilution placing) will GNG have to try and get an even bigger placing away? I'd be interested in anyones thoughts? Heres the quote from last years accounts :- "Following a negotiation with Hanafin, the Board reached agreement for repayment of £1.5 million of the CULS in five installments, the last of which installments was paid on 6 May 2013. It also agreed to the remaining £1.0 million being replaced by a new issue of CULS, which expires on 30 June 2014, carries an interest coupon of 7.5% and is convertible into ordinary shares at a price of 5p per share, which represented a premium of 51% to the mid-market closing price on 22 March 2013. This new CULS is convertible at any time until expiry, if it has not been previously redeemed and, in the event of notice of redemption being given, the holder has the right to elect to convert into ordinary shares in the Company. If converted in full, the resulting ordinary shares would represent 34.6% of the enlarged issued share capital of the Company." Although the terms attaching to the new CULS seem unduly onerous, the board had no option but to accept the terms as the Company, for the reason stated above, was unable to repay the previous CULS in full.
You could well be right....its a weird old share small volumes lead to big moves...mind you thats true both up and down. They are a hard one to research and their P&L and balance sheet makes no sense. Also the lack of director buys even when we were down in the two's shows a lack of confidence. I guess its the age old game of trying to call the bottom and hope you've not caught a falling knife. Hopefully you've got some more ammo for a second batch if need be. I'll probably kick myself tomorrow when it jumps 25% but for now I'll still hold out for a lower entry...anyway good luck with it, you can give me a nah na na nah nah if you prove me wrong :)
Thats brave...thought you would wait till the low threes. With no news out of Geong and the general woes of emerging markets I still think we will retest the lows. Going on their past history I doubt there will be any news till May and I've got a sneaky feeling in my water that they might just do an issue to bolster the cash as it seems to be dwindling. We still have no real clarity on the true cash situation when is cash not cash...when its net cash according to Geong :) Anyway good luck with your punt
I think it will go back to 3p because there was no reason for the rise from 3p in the first place. Furthermore the directors weren't even buying shares when they were at 3p, if anyone was to really know it was a bargain it would have been them. They even issued an RNS after the rise from 3p stating there was no reason for the rise. Also increasingly the cash position seems to be open to interpretation, we were originally informed cash was 4 million now it has changed to net cash of just over a million but they have also had to borrow money, add that to the issue of accrued revenue that hasn't even been invoiced yet and everything looks far less than rosy....hence my 3p prediction. I have traded GNG several times and i'm confident i'll get a good opportunity to get back in but not at this price. Personally i've got an order in at 3.25 but think there is every chance we will see 3p before we see any rise again