Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
This is the thing Ianfer.
In reality, Analysts are probably the most qualified to place a valuation on any business, and, if theyâve done their DD and homework correctly, should be able to value a business using industry standards, risk and asset value. Whether they are ultimately correct or not, depends on whether the company delivers on its objectives. What an analyst canât do is control the market or decide who sells or buys shares.
What investors tend to do, is base their âIâd be happy with a a buy out at XXp per shareâ on the current share price. If we were valued correctly at the moment, I suspect nobody would be happy with a 30p offer. Just because we are massively under valued by the market, doesnât mean the analysts are wrong.
Iâd go as far as to say, that assuming all goes to plan over the next few months, Malcy will probably be closest with his guesstimate.
I doubt weâll see a takeover here, in the short to medium term at least.
The share price in the 6 months preceding the Farm Out announcement was between 14p and 18p (roughly) and AP confirmed at the conference call, following the Farm Out, that the offer made for the company was dismissed out of hand and not high enough.
Iâm assuming that offer was at least slightly higher (north of 25p) than the highest price of 18p during that period.
I doubt anyone would make an offer now, ahead of the 3 drills in the next 3-4 months, and I very much doubt AP would entertain one.
We donât think that. Well I donât anyway.
There were 2 sellers imo. The first one started immediately after the Farm In RNS, and the second one was Covalis, possibly as a result of the first.
I thought that was clear.
BDC
âthen why are they opting to sell shares which cost them nothing to hold over the CFD that have a high cost to hold?â
Shares cost nothing to hold, but they cost the full value to purchase and therefore free up the most cash when sold (as you say). If you have a large (Long) leveraged CFD thatâs continually falling you have to keep adding to your leverage in order to prevent the provider closing it out for you at a loss. If itâs under water, you are still liable for the debt/loss after itâs closed.
You appear to be flip flopping between Covalis being Long or Short on a CFD to suite whatever argument you are trying to counter at any given time.
Unfortunately weâre at the mercy of SDX and their drill.
On the plus side, the timeline is âsqueezedâ now between the start of our on Shore drilling (now early May hopefully) and AE possibly in July. The next 3 or 4 months will certainly be busy and interesting.
I agree about the PR Gooner. They could and should have sold the story better, but the problem with setting timelines, is that circumstances outwith the control of the company can negatively impact them, hence why they said âaround the end of Q1â for onshore. They will have expected to have the rig by now, but have no control over SDXâs drill timeline and are at their mercy.
As far as Rig Mobilisation being âpriced inâ, that event may or may not positively impact the share price, but Iâd go as far as to say that as things stand, pretty much Nothing at all is priced in here. Being âpriced inâ (or not) is not the same as the Market ignoring news, which is what has happened thus far imo.
Ianfer.
The Market appears to not even be aware that Chariot exists, never mind the fact that they will commence a 2 well drill in the next week or 2. That, imo is why the rerate hasnât already started.
As Iâve said several times on here already, this scenario ISNâT unique to Chariot.. The other day I asked for examples of AIM listed companies that anyone felt were being valued correctly by the market, and that had had success (of any description) reflected in the Share Price. Aside from 1 âtongue in cheekâ response, nobody came up with one. The market will wake up eventually, but AIM is so broken, it appears that Chariot are going to have actually make a video of gas coming out the ground, in order for them to be believed. When that happens tho, we wonât be able to buy at these prices.
People need to get away from the idea that this is specific to Chariot tho, itâs isnât.
In that case MrPLO, youâd be as well selling here and coming back in July when AE is being drilled.
The upside potential of the Onshore drills, both with and without success in the deeper reservoir have been explained on here many times, so no point in going back over those, but imo even worst case will provide good to very good cash flow that will see a significant rerate.
If you donât believe that to be the case and/or see the Onshore Drills or Funding as a risk, I suggest O & G maybe isnât your bag, or that youâd be happier buying into ENOG rather than CHAR.
Anyway, Iâll leave it there, as itâs probably best to just let the Drill Bit do the talking now.
GL.
P.s. I apologise sincerely that the share price didnât react the way we all hoped after the distressed seller (who, incidentally, as I stated on several occasions, was there) was cleared. My bad đ