focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Calling for 38p price target, on 2P basis and Brent $65 and AECO $3/mcf (USD)
On a PDP basis price target is 15p. In Canada gas weighted names are valued at PDP, so 15p is the number to look for, not the 38p.
50% undervalued, and not sure what catalysts this team has to get the market to give it the valuation it thinks it deserves.
Athabasca's 'steam-to-oil' ratio on its own Hanginstone is improving every month. It can now compete for capital with its other assets (it used to be a bottom of the pile asset). I3, being the land speculator that is, knows this fully well, and will extract a proper pound of flesh.
Coincidentally, National Bank is the banker for both Athabasca and I3. Don't be surprised they put the transaction together, and 'reward' I3 with some much needed Canadian "analyst" coverage (that is not Cannacord)
"I kind of see us as property owners with a lot of scattered assets. Some providing decent yields (rental income). Others less so or nothing. "
Congratulations on not investing in an actual oil and gas company.
However, it does appear that this company would like to become one in 2025, by promising not to fool around with inconsistent drilling budgeting.
"he was a bit cloak and dagger when asked about Hangingstone an obscure asset in NE Alberta"
Hangingstone is a heavy oil sands play, most of which is owned by one of the stars of the WCSB, Athabasca Oil. Athabasca was my first win in the oil and gas space, and is a company has plans to develop that play for itself, doubling the production from there. They would be a buyer for sure.
...Majid doesn't know who Polus is, or that is his duty to help move that 236M share overhang out of their dirty paws, and into the righteous hands of a Canadian institutional investor.
"no dividend."
Oh my
"explains why i3e undertook another Capital Restructure so soon after the previous one - i.e. to offset the impairment charges"
Can you please expand on how that works?
"I think its interesting that there is only a couple of wells slated for Clearwater - these are nearly 100% Oil - a question for the upcoming meeting me thinks."
Clearwater is not proven out yet.
" I3e being punished in the market by old news (lack of spend in 2023). "
Weird. It's like they are paying that money in the form of dividend to folks who got the shares for free.
You don't drill, you get punished, but enjoy your dividends.
Imma use "fatally floored" from now on.
"Canadian shareholders are currently not that important - are you going to pander to the 10% or the 90% that stumped up the cash when it mattered ?"
That's some fighting words right thar! Polus already doubled its money, their 235M shares are likely free, and yet they insist on getting a dividend which stifles growth.
Speculation for now. Let's see tomorrow. Ironically, this may push retail investors out of the big or midcaps and into small and micro. Tax pools will be important. ITE is taxable already anyway.
"Apparently C$232,649M were to be spent this year according to the 2022 Reserves Report...but just C$36,630M according to the 2023 Reserves Report. DYOC."
Thanks for doing the work of comparing '22 and '23 reserve reports JoeSoap. Kicking the can down the road has been the real business model of this company. Don't know why they keep boasting about their "total return" model. They stopped growing in 2023. No wonder investors feel they are treading water here.
"'m starting to think the low valuation is primarily the oil to gas ratio. Hopefully this is rectified in the 2024 capex programme."
The company has advised its reserve auditor it will spend between $36M-$43M in capex in 2024. That won't move the needle much. Looks like they will go "balls to the walls" in 2025, when they hope AECO will average $4 or so.
https://x.com/DerAchsenZeit/status/1776697198866280643
"The $234m that you are referencing refers to something else entirely - I'm not going to explain it to you - your going to have to use your noddle and figure it out yourself."
That's a capex program that has been disclosed by I3 to the reserve auditor. If they can't generate $234M themselves (highly unlikely), where is that money coming from?
Cannuck - whwre on earth do you get your figures from ?
I got them from the GLJ report filed with SEDAR
https://x.com/DerAchsenZeit/status/1776697198866280643
Further to IBB_INVEST rebuttal: the market is the market. You can't argue with it. We're being valued at a discount rate of 20% which is 100% more than other peers in Canada are being valued at (10%). The market is saying we're 100% riskier than everyone else? Why? The asset is fine. The balance sheet is OK, and just got better?
Is I3 a good operator? Well, it has an opex of $14.80 that's terrible compared to a best in class operator like Peyto
Plus, GLJ estimates they have to spend $235M in capex in 2025 "n to
convert proved non-producing and undeveloped reserves and probable reserves to proved developed
producing reserves". They better have a banner year in 2024 then...otherwise they will lose reserves.
"Tony wont admit it.."
Why Tony do that? This is very concerning.
"When is a realistic expectation that CAD$3-5 could be achieved."
As early as 2025. See the bottom of the Reserve Evaluation for more.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/i3_energy/news/rns_widget/story/xlj4vpr