Member Info for Wait

Bigsmoke, you can't add the valuations of 1p + 2P + 3p together. 3p includes 1p and 2p.

So @ $8 itg 2p = $174m

· Multiple parties participating in the FSP following the signing of confidentiality agreements
· Management presentations with interested parties currently being held in Bogotá

"We are pleased to complete the update to our reserves and transition the review of our full portfolio to McDaniel and Associates. We have had feedback from participants in the FSP that they value the new independent assessment from McDaniel. ***** The report highlights the near-term value of the Company's CPO-5 asset. ****"

However if valuation is derived from these figures, it will be at the lower end me thinks

Yes, Amer are trying to make a market by getting all parties together at the right time. Keep government involved too.

Roth1 you are missing the point, the actual number doesn't matter. The point is if you were to value the assets now after two unsuccessful drills it would be significantly lower than in the excitement of January when 'ocean of oil' was the phrase being banded around as well as valuations in the billions of dollars.

While we wait, here another conspiracy theory
After Indico, JW went to India to get the sign off for the rigs. ONGC made an offer to buy CPO-5 and Amer accepted it in principal.
ONGC needed time to get the money together (internal tender for overseas development fund) so they switched the drilling plan to Calao and Sol. Calao was always a strange choice looking at the seismics. Amer *agree* as excitement at the time was high and they needed a period of stability for the sale to go through. Sure they needed to drill holes to meet license commitments but Calao and Sol were not optimal choices to say the least. Two more dusters would make the 'fair' offer more palatable to Amer's over excited retail investors.
6 months later, ONGC have progressed to have this financing available now https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/ongc-to-borrow-2-billion-through-unique-overseas-debt-programme/articleshow/70894128.cms?from=mdr
In July, Amer get frustrated at the lack of bid progress by ONGC and start the formal sale process, (triggered by a weak informal offer) in order to pressure ONGC to hurry up and also provide justification that the offer is at market rates. ONGC being owned by the Indian Government won't want to be seen as overpaying.
ONGC win CPO-5, Amer for $100. Amer and ONGC can both justify the price is fair.

Giles says FSP is competitive - important

"For the remainder of the year, we remain focused on building production to the top end of guidance, appraising the Indico field and progressing the **** competitive **** FSP in order to maximise value for all shareholders.""

only $46m cash - where is it all going?
Indico-2 spud in H2 2019 - WTF?! ONGC clearly don't want Indico 2 drilled as it may spoil their offer. If they weren't going to make a bid then it would be spud by now. Could be the case that an offer was being lined up much earlier in the year (perhaps when GC and JW visited India) and that's the reason why they drilled Calcao and Sol.

Could the board defend a hostile bid? They only have approx 5% equity and we know Michinoko is not controlled by GC.
Based on the Bod track record of failed delivery and fat salaries i think many here would accept 25p rather than risk carrying on another year with little activity.

Private equity - 25p

If ONGC are bidding for CPO-5, it will take months just to put a bid in, judging by their bureaucratic approach to everything else.

But that's OK by me if the price is a fair one.

Somethings going on, sure we'll find out shortly.

Just changed the amount from 17,641,689 to 17,131,594

They must have been promised work, or future upside otherwise why would they accept this early? Unless they were keen to get out the market.

If another institution accepts at this low offer, it will start to smell really bad.

Looking forward to seeing Michinoko's declaration

Worst case in my mind was no bid arising and things fizzling out. If going hostile, then this won't be the last approach from either or M&P or others

Which implies FIL were the ones selling down prior to the announcement and were doing so to reduce the price.

Based on last major shareholders from company site
R&M 6.18
L&G 4.67
FIL 6.63

Stated position based on recent RNS
R&M 5.9
L&G 4.35
FIL 4.82

Morning Star
R&M 5.03
L&G 3.17
FIL 4.35

Morning star not accurate

Agree Fred, I also find it strange that the premium is so low.

If you believe that M&P will make a more serious bid, or other parties will make competitive bids (as I do) then there is an opportunity to make some money. I'm heavily invested in this knowing the downside is limited imo.

"Sol-1 test is therefore running at more than 50% longer than Indico-1. The question is why? and how long can ONGC hold out before releasing the figures."

It could simply be down to testing two zones rather than one.

"They have certainly dragged their feet and avoided the second rig. I think we all know the reason why now. They were and are in no rush to prove up AMERISUR's resources"

Also question about whether ONGC are front loading the development costs - seem an awful lot of tenders on the ONGC web site that ain't going to be cheap. Investing more up front, while producing less is going to put more pressure on AMER.

My view is this was triggered by Parex announcing a strategic review a few days ago with a view to selling the prolific Llanos 34, 32 and Cabrestero blocks.

GeoPark and Ecopetrol are in a land grab process surrounding CPO-5. They recently won three blocks here https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190627005229/en/GeoPark-Announces-Significant-Acreage-Expansion-Llanos-Basin
If ONGC have first refusal, now might be the perfect time to maximise alternative bids without having to fully prove up the resource.