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Good numbers out today from visa on bar and restaurant consumer spending in December.
Cinema sales are looking good at the moment which should benefit the restaurant group in H2. The cineworld half yr report is worth a read if you want to understand how bad the uk box office was in H1 2016 vs H1 2015, which I'm sure impacted those LFLs. For the second half films should be a tail wind.
Gourmet burger kitchen sold for £120m with ebitda of £9.6m. Tasty trading at £98m market cap with £6m ebitda. The restaurant group is going to surpass last years £127m ebitda for Fy16 and has a market cap of only £770m with virtually no debt. BUY. Also not sure why the citi analyst used a DCF for their price target and not EV/ebitda multiple.
- H1 2016 EBITDA £60m vs £59m in 2015 - current ytd LFLs -3.7% and improving from -3.9%. - soft sales comparatives in H2 from a quick look at last yrs reporting - bad news out the way now with the impairments and provisioning (mostly non-cash) - Dividend maintained. decent yield - v.low net debt - improved mgmt - improving economy I Would expect the valuation get to 8-10x ebitda pretty soon and not sure what the selling is about in the last couple of days. reckon full yr ebitda will be be easily over the £130m mark. BUY
- H1 2016 EBITDA £60m vs £59m in 2015 - current ytd LFLs -3.7% and improving from -3.9%. - soft sales comparatives in H2 from a quick look at last yrs reporting - bad news out the way now with the impairments and provisioning (mostly non-cash) - Dividend maintained. decent yield - v.low net debt - improved mgmt - improving economy I Would expect the valuation get to 8-10x ebitda pretty soon and not sure what the selling is about in the last couple of days. reckon full yr ebitda will be be easily over the £130m mark. BUY
I think there will be weak comparatives for aug15 because the weather was pretty grim.
The cinema sites could also be doing a bit better given recent film releases vs the film drought we saw in the first few months of the year.
Met office reports 6th driest July on record for central and southern England. This will be a benefit to pubs and restaurants.
I would be surprised if the don't keep the dividend given the cash generation and quality BS. Also I think last years sales comparatives will be a little less challenging than the first half. £6.00
By the sounds of it the maintenance/refurb capex increase will be offset by a decrease to new site capex so broadly flat on 2015 (£75m). The dividend seems v.well covered and with 30+ new openings for 2016 I think long term this should be fine.
The LFL growth in the prior year serms to be weighted towards the first half so I would antipate some less challenging comparatives in the second half. Not sure about the comment below that F&B does better in bad weather than good.
PE look for ebitda multiples in the 7-10x range in the restauarant sector so there could be some interest coming in based on the current market cap and strong BS.
Total sales up 4.7% and lfl down-2.7% with a small profits downgrade. It does seem like a bit of an overreaction. Could be weather and cinema release related as we have seen a pretty wet start to the year and leisure sites having been impacted by a lack of blockbuster film releases in 2016 + an early and rainy easter.
Supply demand imbalance still favours uk house builders especially in southern england.
the ev/ebitda multiple seems pretty good value at the moment vs some of the recent PE activity in the restaurant sector. 2015 ebitda was reported at £128m + lots of new openings for 2016 and the benefit of low energy commodity costs.
The dividend at 4.6% seems great value for this company. http://eatoutmagazine.co.uk/restaurants-enjoy-upward-trend-march-consumer-spend-visa-figures-reveal