Member Info for unknownquantity

Contrary to what you think the RNS fully confirms that Invinity’s VRFB technology has transitioned into a selected UK LDES initiative in round 1 of Ofgem's C&F scheme. In my view this is a major regulatory and commercial validation for IES and enables the company to book revenue once the financial aspects have been sorted out over the next few months.

More importantly, the fact VRFBs are now embedded in an internationally recognised UK LDES policy, the Endurium battery can now be promoted for future project wins globally. IMHO VRFBs will become a crucial part of LDES for RE producers globally, because VRFBs are so efficient at grid stabilisation over the 8-12 hour window. Moreover, only VRFBs offer: 1. long lifespans with minimal degradation (i.e. decades with very little capacity loss compared to lithium-ion, which means more maintenance and insurance costs over time). 2. Independent scaling of energy and power — energy can be stored in modular tanks, so duration can be increased (no need to redesigning the full system). 3. Non-flammable chemistry means safer operation and less insurance costs (especially in heatwaves when lithium-ion can be highly prone to fires). 4. VRFBs can be repeatedly fully discharged without the same wear-and-tear issues for lithium-ion systems. 5. 30+ years of use means far better long-term economics for LDES than lithium-ion.

In short, VRFBs are a crucial element in the sustainability and resilience of the RE market/electricity grid (especially solar and wind) globally. IES is on a great pathway.

DYOR, GLA LTH

I was not expecting such good news!

This is probably the strongest commercial validation the company has ever produced. First and most important, in Protium we have a paying customer, a distribution partner, and actual hydrogen sales. Second sale of two LC30 fuel cell generators. Third the cash balance and burn rate is looking good and modest income growth. This is excellent progression by the Board from R&D to commercialisation!

I would think that the next step is to see how profitable the crackers are in producing green energy over the next year or so and how well the LC30s operate in a hot environment. If positive, the current modest income generation will rise and we have every reason to believe that we have a large profitable business on our hands.

This is very exciting times for H-POW as we are now no longer just R&D but in the Hydrogen value chain and moving fast!

GLA LTH.

LTH - I'd be a bit more prudent as six months from FDA and the raise assumes all data feedback go without a hitch, which is unlikely. As a rough guess if pre-clinical data flows are positive over the next 4-6 months the partners will probably not wait to complete all the mechanistic and fibrosis assessments and move to a deal.

BTW you are right to point out a "global" licencing deal is an important new word in the vocabulary of NFX. That gives further credence to my humble view that NFX are working with Tier-1 partners to develop, as Dan has already stated, a combination therapy that not only modulates inflammation in the lungs but also facilitates natural tissue repair. That would be a game changer for LTH and IPF sufferers!

GL

LTH - assuming preclinical data satisfy potential partners over the next 6+ months the norm is to agree a licence/option agreement covering submission of IND (investigational new drug) to the FDA/CTA to EMA agreeing on milestone payments as NXP002 transitions through Phase I (tests on healthy humans) Phase IIa (tests on IPF/fibrosis sufferers), Phase IIb (further tests). Setting up the agreement will come IF and WHEN the potential partners are happy with the data feedback, which NFX is funding with the raise.

FYI Proof of Concept (PoC) could be reached in Phase IIa (probably around 4+ years away at this stage). As usual LTHs are taking up the risk in NXP002 but If we get an agreement then the partner(s) share the risk. That's the game changing moment all LTHs are hoping for. Dan says he's "excited". That's a hint things are going in the right direction in the data room so far.

GL and DYOR

LTH - There are are currently no known molecules that can "modulate the inflammatory process sufficiently so that the natural immune repair process can take place". But this is the key message from the RNS (i.e. NXP002's potential mechanistic differentiation). This matters because almost certainly only Tier-1 pharmas have the internal R&D to assess this differentiation. That's why more data are being requested by the potential partners involved. That's very encouraging, but it probably means another 6+ months of waiting before we have clearer indications on the performance of the NXP002 molecule at pre-clinical stage. IF positive, the next stage is almost certainly a milestone agreement on clinical trials to phase IIb (PoC) to assess first healthy humans and then sufferers of IPF/fibrosis on key issues like dosage and toxicity. If that's positive and you're still on board we are looking at a billion pound+ market and a lot of smiling sufferers who'll be saying thanks LTHs!

It is still a big "IF" at this stage but the request for more data from potential partners suggests positive momentum at Tier-1 level.

This is only my view. DYOR

GLA LTHs

The RNS confirms IES is now transitioning into the LDES value chain. The key take away from FlexBase is that IES can provide "innovative, modular solutions perfectly tailored" to the needs of the client. That's huge for RE producers globally.

LDES is indispensable to establishing sustainable and resilient RE and VFBs are now being seen by the public and private sector as a crucial part of LDES for several reasons: grid duration needs are increasing, fire risks are far lower than lithium (so insurance costs are far less with VFB), electrolyte lasts far longer (and can be reused after 25+ years) and initiatives like cap-and-floor are about to be launched. On top of that IES can apparently provide modular solutions that meet on-demand needs. Brilliant!

GLA LTH

Fantastic to see the Copwood project completed and in commissioning phase.

This is 100% the way forward for the UK, Europe, Canada, African Asia, the Far East to remove the problem of unstable renewable solar and wind energy production and justify investment in clean energy. Reducing the upfront cost of VFB through Endurium will open up RE security globally.

Nevertheless, one guy continues to insist only stupid people buy and use windmills.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/PErwhBZVhCY

BTW China has one of the biggest wind farms in the world...

GLA LTH

Thanks for posting.

I was particularly interested to also read, "If you’re able to turn off the fibroblast in the lungs, there is high probability will affect fibroblasts in other fibrotic diseases, because fibrosis underlies many high-value chronic diseases across multiple organs."

A platform/molecule with broad anti-fibrotic applicability could potentially address a wide range of fibrotic sufferers. That's a market worth many billions annually

https://www.imarcgroup.com/idiopathic-pulmonary-fibrosis-treatment-market

The question is, does anyone know of a company that is developing such a molecule and has opened up their data rooms to potential partners interested in developing combination therapies for IPF?

;)

GLA LTH

Yes, I agree with you ALBM very sad what we are witnessing and Trump has definitely prompted energy and military thinking in the DESNZ, MOD and NATO Members in the EU to review ALL fuel cell tech for off-grid energy needs, which in the case of military needs would be under the DASA accelerator.

DYOR, GLA LTH

This is the best news I've seen since that disastrous RNS last year:

- First JDA with a major global heavy industry company to use AFC's HY5 crackers (assuming testing goes well)

- Komatsu validates AFC's decarbonisation approach not only in one sector as they are in port construction, mining, roads, you name it... which potentially opens up major global interest in HY5 for several sectors

- RNS validates AFC energy's R&D pathway is on the right track.

I almost gave up on AFC last year but held because those HY5 crackers seemed to be too good to just go the wall. We should see a gradual share price rise as momentum picks up on HY5 role in decarbonising heavy industry (one of the hardest to decarbonise).

GLA LTH

-

I only saw the interview with Dan today and after analysing it, I have to say I've never been more positive on NFX over the last few years. Key points from the interview:

1) NFX have set out the scientific rationale (MoA) for NXP002, which may be more effective treating IPF sufferers than in tablet form, but could also treat other fibrotic diseases affecting the liver, heart, kidneys. That's key info for a potential partner.

2) Negotiations with potential partners are now mainly focusing on "inhalation specialist" companies. Very important for the future progression of NXP002.

3) NFX has clear strategy in those negotiations, i.e. it's looking to apply the most favoured de-risked route to a deal, i.e. a milestone-based development partnership to PoC (over the next 18 months) BEFORE entering into negotiations on a major commercial agreement. That's important because the other route would be to partner with an inhalation specialist (e.g. Vectura) to PoC, which would involve a massive fund raise to pay for the clinical trials.

4) FDA approval is likely. That's crucial as it appears to be the missing piece in finalising the milestone licence to PoC with the inhalation specialist partner.

5) Dan has NOT mentioned a fund raise is on the cards as he knows this is NOT in the company's interest. The only possibility of a fund raise is if (after FDA) the negotiations with the preferred partner can't be finalised in November and a small raise is needed. This actually could have a positive effect on the share price.

In summary, if NXP002 gains ODD from the FDA it's very good news for IPF sufferers and LTH. Fair value for NXP002 before a deal would be a share price equating to around £15 million valuation (0.8p).

DYOR (information only). I could be wrong I could be ...

GLA

Interesting to see the symposium yesterday on "Unmet needs in IPF/IPP a targeted approach to address disease progression" was one of two that was restricted (in person/online) to only the medical profession and those in the pharmaceutical profession (i.e. not meer mortals such as myself).

; )

GLA

Posted as info only for all LTH. DYOR

Well, that's a great RNS! Well done Dan and the team and good timing!

What is very significant from the RNS is that negotiating partners now have a clear MoA for NXP002 that supports multi-organ efficacy (i.e the heart and liver often affected by IPF). That's of major interest to a big pharma company. But the fact NXP002 may reverse fibrosis and so far has few side effects if inhaled (twice a day) and at the same time may have a positive effect on other organs IS OF MASSIVE INTEREST to a big Pharma who's also focused on other fibrotic diseases of the heart, liver, kidneys. IMHO there's one big pharma who would NOT want to miss out on licensing NXP002 (once FDA approved) for these reasons.

BI BI and GLA

Please DYOR

Another opportunity for world leaders who produce H2 crackers and fuel cells:

Japanese conglomerate agrees to co-develop large green hydrogen-based ammonia plant in India, to supply maritime fuel.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/japanese-conglomerate-agrees-to-co-develop-large-green-hydrogen-based-ammonia-plant-in-india-to-supply-maritime-fuel-in-singapore/2-1-1857008

GLA

Personally I'm very pleased to see the FDA application has been (finally) submitted as it will enhance third-party validation of NXP002 in the US. IMHO that shows Dan has almost certainly been negotiating with the big boys who want to de-risk NXP002 before agreeing a licence deal. Also, it further confirms my view that a milestone-based licencing agreement to proof of concept (valued at between £10-20 million) would be the best way forward for a company like Boehringer who's patent on nintedanib ends at the end of 2025.

Only (another) 90+ days to go... hopefully Dan will update us on some good news beforehand!

GLA

I have to say I was not expecting such a negative RNS and was expecting the placing late Aug/early September according to the figures I had. Revenue was so low that it confirms AFC were not on the right path under the old management. However, the RNS this morning confirms an oversubscribed placing, which when factoring in money raised from management, retail investors, pending grants and credits and existing cash AFC should have around £34 million.

In my view the dilution should equate to a share price of around 12-12.5 p but more importantly it will give AFC a cash runway of around 12 months to do what they've been saying in recent RNS. A priority must be the upgrading of their world class Hy-5 cracker to meet the needs of the S&P partner as that is where sales could start to roll in quite quickly in H1 2026. In that way they could use some of the proceeds to fund the improvement of their Fuel Cell as an integrated package with Hy-5, which is what the S&P partner will want at its ports, etc. globally.

Placings are horrible, but on this occasion I have reason for hope, because this time new management are buying shares and have a clear plan to commercialisation supported by partnerships that can get them to commercialisation.

In my case I'm requesting some extra shares (might not get them though!).

GLA

In the RNS on 09 April 2025, Dan Gooding concluded, "For patients with ILD's of an autoimmune origin, given such patients' background systemic therapies, an inhaled approach towards treatment would be highly advantageous in both development and treatment. We are excited by the results and continue discussions with potential partners, who also see advantages in NXP002 in terms of therapeutic optionality and future product positioning. I look forward to providing further updates in due course."

A company specialising in inhaled medicine linked to pulmonary diseases, whose current drug for IPF will lose its patents in Europe and the USA at the end of 2025/early 2026 and who has the cash to roll-out the clinical trials for NXP002 would be the most logical partner for Nuformix. IMHO Boehringer Ingelheim would fit that profile very nicely indeed...

For anyone interested please note licensing takes time to finalise - around 3+ months from the ODD confirmation end of April 2025. Given NXP002 has still to undergo clinical trials, I would expect a company like BI to opt for a safer milestone agreement with Nuformix first. That way they would stay de-risked until after the proof of concept (Phase 2a of the clinicals). I understand milestone agreements are generally preferred for this reason. However, that would still mean a milestone agreement of around £15-20 million is feasible.

Of course, if all milestones are met then a huge commercial deal is in the waiting for NFX and its shareholders... It's a billion-dollar global market

Let's first get some form of a deal over the line in the next month or so...

Good luck Dan and his team, shareholders and IPF sufferers!!!

Ref: https://www.ft.com/content/a0f79a5b-4bc8-48ca-bd5c-d68e29c57b98

"Decarbonising steel production involves either converting the facility to run on hydrogen or electrifying the process to remove the need for coke or coal."

AFC's route to produce hydrogen onsite with an ammonia cracker would enable many dirty coal/coke-fired furnaces in Europe to transition to H2 using the DRI process.

The alternative - no action - will only cause an increase in GHG emissions from dirty steel plants - responsible for around 10% of all GHG emissions. This will result in greater costs from the effects of climate change (storms, floods, landslides, drought) on the global economy. Europe is already spending hundreds of billions of pounds in annual rehabilitation costs.

Ref: https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/indicators/economic-losses-from-climate-related

So, once the upfront costs of AFC's crackers come down over the next 12 months, the demand for AFC tech will be enormous. This must be the trend, otherwise why are so many companies increasing the production of green ammonia globally?

GLA

AFC's aim to achieve price parity with diesel generators used by the construction, mining and other industrial sectors in 2026 could actually be brought forward to 2025 if oil prices rise by +20% this year. Currently, the higher upfront capital expenditure cost of buying AFC's H-Power 30KW generator is the main factor deterring orders, but if oil prices rise that changes for several reasons:

1. Lower O&M costs associated with AFC's generator compared to diesel will reduce the total cost of ownership.

2. Longevity of H2 generators is far better than diesel.

3. AFC's H2 generators produce no CO2 emissions and are able to meet different energy demands

4. EU and UK are committed to speeding up clean and cheaper electricity (by 2030), which includes improving access to H2 - both grid and off-grid.

5. The switch to H2 increases business resilience not only to climate change but geopolitical problems such as if oil stops passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

IMHO the case for AFC's H2 generators must be growing and I wouldn't be surprised if orders start growing in 2025 of oil spikes.

GLA

I though some investors might like my thoughts on Air Products decision to pull back from fixed green hydrogen production at Immingham. In my view it represents an important strategic shift by AP to another form of H2 production that is more mobile, scalable and cheaper. If Air Products are the confidential partner in the JDA with AFC, reassigning some of its resources to supporting the development of scalable ammonia crackers would make a lot of business sense. Air Products are one of the biggest shippers of ammonia globally and need on-site scalable crackers to convert it back into H2 to serve a wide range of industrial and transport needs. AFC has the tech but to gain a bigger advantage it needs to cut the costs further of their Hyamtec crackers in 2025-2026. Hence the agreement with Volex. If AFC achieve this it will almost certainly become a major player globally in the H2 market.

Investors should not panic with some retracement and hold - shorters are still there (unfortunately). AFC has a clear and clean pathway to commercialisation and their board has the experience to achieve this.

GLA

GLA