Member Info for Uh-oh

This too was my first thought about Adastra upon reading the news this week. He wrote in a convincing way, regularly.

On the other hand, why didn't the company try to raise money when the price was c.7p.

On balance, I have found Adastra's comments helpful and informative, but this company comes with baggage and the deeply discounted placing at a ridiculous 1pps tells me that it remains a company whose BoD should not be trusted.

Can anyone please explain why on Investegate, shorts totals 7.29% with 10 different institutions (https://www.investegate.co.uk/company/SN./short-positions), but on short tracker, shorts total only 4.27% with 6 different institutions (https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0009223206/)...

I always looked at shorttracker.co.uk, but I am wondering whether Investegate is a more reliable source.

I certainly agree that the shares look oversold. However, recent pronounced price falls, from over 300p, suggest the company is saying one thing to shareholders and another to its brokers. Why else would the shares collapse when the company is so optimistic (from 2027)?

The management need to communicate much more effectively as well as clearly if the shares are to return to favour. It is in their hands and at the moment, they, especially the relatively inexperienced CE, appears not to understand this.

When a group reports that it has "93% of revenues secured to 2029", such visibility to earnings makes the c.6x p/e and yield of 8%+ (>12% incl. the special divi) look completely wrong. Sure, the delivery of newspapers and magazines is ex growth, meaning SNWS will not grow fast near term unless, in particular, there are earnings enhancing acquisitions. It is generating prodigious cashflows though, to fund such moves. Add in the fact that one of its largest shareholders is Silchester, which has built an unenviable reputation for investing in undervalued shares, and everything points to these shares being an absolute 'total return' steal at 67p. DYOR.

Whilst I do not disagree with various people's comments today about the figures being disappointing and the outlook being for more of the same, this has always been a 'slow burn' of a stock, with R&D taking many years to come to fruition. In the meantime, it is subject to market forces and atm this is all about China and the pressure on pricing and volumes. The company will continue to be a prodigious cash machine though and so whilst a reduced payout in the future seems likely, it will still generate more cash for which it has a need. Therefore, the shares should continue to offer a very impressive dividend payout.

What many shareholders fail to remember, however, is that a share price falls by the value of the net dividend paid. Therefore, you are never better off. You are simply moving a sum from one hand to the other hand, with the overall value of your holding plus dividends unaltered. So, the shares, like any stock, need to be valued on their fundamentals and I think these remain very attractive over the long term. I wouldn't rule out a pharma / biotech company taking the company out, once cashflows start to come through on the neurology side in particular. After all, the world needs an answer to the horrific Alzheimer's disease.

Hi LL. TW at SP has done some no. crunching, partly due to the almost complete lack of research available, and he believes ECOB shares could be on a forward p/e for 2026 of 1x (I jest not). The shares, therefore, have the potential to be a multi-bagger from even these c.20p levels. In support of his belief that this is a company now to trust and to back, he has bought shares at c.22p in his SIPP.

The guys at SP are not just excellent journalists, but with their financial backgrounds, they are also able to read Balance Sheets back to front and upside down. In my view, they are that good. That is not to say that they get every investment right, but their record of finding winning share tips is incredibly impressive. In my view, ECOB, in which I had an average buying price of 7.6p from Nov.'24, still has lots of upside potential and so I too have bought shares this week at just over 20p. DYOR.

I agree that today's trading update is encouraging. The consumer division suffering as much as it has done y-o-y looks a touch worrying, but it shows the reliance upon key authors, especially JK Rowling and Sarah J Maas. The latter has had a gap of c.1 year between publications, so a decline into 2025 was always going to happen. The release of her latest book in June 2025, however, augurs very well for 2026 numbers. Does anybody know how many of the contracted 6 books, which she has to write, have now been published?

The H1 figures were always going to be a nothing event, Shandypants. It is all about the future, not just H2. If the company is maintaining its position re existing forecasts, I believe that means FY eps should be at least 6p. Assuming some growth into 2026, with a very strong balance sheet, a half decent yield and scope for an earnings enhancing acquisition, which is a better deployment of cash than buy-backs, there are reasons to be optimistic. The small size of the co., however, combined with the lack of liquidity in the shares and lack of catalysts near term to push the shares much higher may mean that shareholders have to wait for some corporate activity, or directors share purchases, to push the shares higher.

Does anyone have a feel for profits and earnings projections into 2026 and 2027?

I read recently that Cavendish had pencilled in a decline into 2026, but so quickly are contracts coming through, I suspect that earnings of over 5p are now likely.

I can understand that the Board of Directors felt it appropriate to reject the first 1 or 2 bid approaches by KKR without shareholder consultation because approaches happen a lot and many are simply opportunistic. However, anything beyond that number really ought to become of public interest, for shareholders to have a say because they are the ultimate owners of the business, not the Board of Directors who are merely there to help in the running of it.

Assura's 2 announcements on Friday and today, effectively, are trying to force KKR's hand at a time when AGR's management of the business has suffered through its high LTV preventing much capex. KKR's deep pockets and impeccable timing, with the commercial property sector at its low point in the cycle, could suggest an offer of at least 49p, leaving a little wiggle room to go to 50p if there is a competing offer. Whatever price, I suspect shareholders will sell out because there is so much value elsewhere across the sector.

What worries me is that profits warnings usually come in 3s. As Guitarsolo alludes to, this has been a great company and investment, but right at the moment, considering how downbeat the statement is, with the promise of 'jam tomorrow' if the rail cycle normalises, I am wary of buying into this sell-off which, depressingly, is back to 2021 levels.

In my view, the new De La Rue will be an attractive business, growing well into the future, with solid order books. However, whether it has a future is questionable for 2 reasons:

1. As part of its restructuring strategy, it could be that both divisions are subject to take-overs. Arguably, the Currency division is the attractive one and on sum-of-the-parts, makes the business worth a lot more than the current share price.

2. What if the authentication business does not sell?

Atm, it is critical to DLAR that the deal with Crane goes through because without the receipt of the £300m proceeds, it will leave the company with a big pension fund deficit and, more importantly, leave it saddled with debts and at risk of breaching its banking covenants because it needs to repay a £235m revolving credit facility by 1st July 2025 and it will not have sufficient funds to do this if the authentication sale is not finalised. In turn, that would make signing off future Accounts difficult as there would be a material uncertainty as to whether the business can continue as a going concern.

Time for the tin hats, therefore! On balance, I think the shares are a firm 'hold', if not a 'buy on weakness'. It may be one only for the brave though.

Toli, I am sure that you've seen it, but the 10%+ rise in Kooth's shares in recent days is linked to Harwood / Rockwood Strategic IT taking a 4.53% stake. Being one of the consistently best small / micro cap managers, with a great record of taking stakes in businesses in which it sees scope at least to double their money, it is the sort of news that is needed whilst newsflow from the company is more negative, than positive.

...and today's pathetically small Directors' purchase, to the value of £2,500, gives all the wrong signals as well.

I do not expect all Board Directors to be rolling around with spare cash, but they need to understand how markets work. Eg, when your share price has lost 10-20% in no time at all, on the back of very little, a serious purchase needs to be made by 1 or more Directors. That has not happened so far with IGP and the longer that the Directors do or say nothing, the more likely fear will take over and the price stay depressed. Idiots!

Do not get too carried away, oldbutnowisa. The company, sadly, lost its Chief Executive and founder in late August. The company will need seriously good management to keep firing on all cylinders into 2025. A period of bedding down may be required first.

With my sceptical hat on, I thought IGP's recent trading update was woefully short of the sort of information required to justify the extent to which the price has risen in recent months, on very little news. Compounding my scepticism is my previous mention of the company using RNS Reach to dribble out some information, something that was designed to support the share price even though it would not have been new news. I think the PR company needs changing at he very least!

Ultimately, the collapse this month is probably to do with fears that 'Reeves the robber' is about to destroy AIM by removing BPR from qualifying companies listed on this market. With small caps being very illiquid and market makers not wanting any stocks sold (for the time being!) to be on their books, there is only one way that some of these shares can go, especially as the greater the fall, the more fear kicks in and buyers then go to ground rather than being courageous and buying into a dip.

Lemonade, how about asking that question to Harwood (seriously). They are top notch small cap managers who only ever take a stake if they think that they can at least double their money within a reasonable timeframe.

Dodger, JNEO shares are an absolute steal atm, on < 12x p/e, growing well and throwing off plenty of cash.

The shares are almost certainly drifting because of the impending Budget and concern that BPR will be abolished. I would not worry, even if there will be a major overhang if abolished. Ultimately, on fundamentals, the shares are cheap and should be bought.

I'm always wary of companies that announce profits warnings, especially smaller ones, as they so often come in 3s. OMG is not trading well - fact. However, its Balance Sheet strength offers hope if it can find an earnings enhancing acquisition to bolt on alongside Vicon & Vision Systems. Until a deal materialises, I see little to go for other than a bid (in my dreams!).

Hello Martin (+ Rivaldo). I read your Private Punter messages with interest and I am currently looking at CNC, following the giving up of gains post its most recent results. Thank you anyway.

In the meantime, I have just bought 70,000 NWOR at just under 16p because I share your views that these shares look very cheap, with the business growing quite well, costs being managed effectively, it throwing off decent amounts of cash, to add to its already healthy cash balance of c.5pps, the forward p/e being little more than 5x, the shares yielding c.4.7%.

Oh, and as Rivaldo mentioned recently, Harwood is now up to 5.07%. Also Aberforth, another highly respected value manager, has a 19.4% stake.

What is not to like apart from the nature of the business which, I suppose for those not believing in the old print world, will not be for everyone.