Blencowe Resources: Aspiring to become one of the largest graphite producers in the world. Watch the video here.
https://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFKCN1TU0FV-OZABS
This is kind of a big deal for all companies in country.
https://miningmaven.com/blog/913-miningmaven-podcast-115-with-david-archer-of-savannah-resources-sav
It’s actually a valid question imo. It’s ofc a bit more complex for us as we must combine China and EU in the deals we do as Portugal needs the integrated value chain but we need to sell already 2021. Atmo it’s a bit of oversupply in China of spodumene due to slow capacity build out and seasonably lower EV sales. This will change. And as Osaka says. Refineries will be built and we will be part of it one way or the other. Important to add. Not all spodumene is created equal. Quality is key and it varies a LOT from the Aussies.
Well, this half of the year will be crucial. I want to see the DFS, get offtake on both the spodumene and byproducts, I want to see some good funding alternatives and know more about Aldeia. We have proven we can produce high quality and that is key! Even more results like that would be great to have.
What we need to do is get the story out for real. I’m hoping progress on above would help a lot. Lithium market is hard but as long as we keep our opex in check we will make a lot of money.
This is now scaled down to very conservative imo. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xzQC_VFoIwwIfgxxDDr100HbsQxhGwcOzv1ExbfFlMM
I would get excited given the optimism from NVS, I don't think he would dare to over promise now, the John Meyer note - would he write like that if he wasn't quite confident it is good? And just the general fact that we are sub £20m cap with a lot of gold on top of the best exploration licenses in Africa.. Each to their own but I have been and am still loading up. "Imminently" we will see what the first holes have shown.. Cheers
Hi! No revenue so will rely on market for cash. We have enough for the rest of the year and it’s said no more placings to retail. Capex will be funded through debt and pre payments from customers and maybe some streaming deals etc, plus a bit of equity probably. From 2021 free cash flows should be strong above $70m/y...
No brainer of a deal. The prospects of Aldeia are huge. It could really be like a new Grandao. Having been there (proof page 4, far right), you see the spodumene on surface. It’s a current quarry. Can’t wait to hear more re B and C as well!
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7swaaKIl8bvWHI5VWJ5ZFU1a19YYUhMVFJGanYtMUZxY0hF/view?usp=drivesdk Personally I expect their TP to be north of 25p post DFS.
I’d say resource upgrades, fact that we’re buying 25 % of the assets for pennies of a dollar are sp changing news. Problem is. Sp isn’t changing bc we have too few buyers. Other stories somehow better at creating excitement. Fundamentals should win in the end and we have a fantastic resource in a good jurisdiction with great economics. Not much more we can do.
Savannah, via an issue of new shares to the vendors, is acquiring the outstanding 25% minority stake in its advanced Mina do Barroso (MdB) spodumene hard rock lithium project in Portugal. The deal, struck at 5.63 p/share, values 25% of MdB at £9.1m. MdB’s Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) Completed By Year End In a July 2018 Scoping Study, a post-tax NPV of £184m, was estimated at an 8% discount rate. Since then, the company has started a BFS to be completed by year end. By drilling they have increased resources and have upgraded from inferred into indicated and measured. Analytical testing has shown that already low levels of iron are smaller than originally expected and metallurgical and marketing work has shown much greater potential for by-product revenues. However, in line with all lithium markets, the price of spodumene concentrates have fallen from the US$900/t highs seen in July 2018, hence, the conservative $685/t assumed then, is around the current price and the financial numbers in the BFS may be pulled in opposite directions. Shares Trading At Big Discount To Our Valuation If 25% of MdB is worth £9.1m, so 100% of MdB is £36.3m or 3.5p/share, or 70% of the current share price. 75% of the £184m project NPV is £138m, which is 13.2p or 2.6 times the current share price. Savannah retains ownership of 20% of a Heavy Mineral Sands project in Mozambique and varying majority holdings in two Omani copper projects. In spite of little recent visible signs of progress on either, we maintain our respective £25m and £5m valuations. There is dilution with the share issues, but this is offset by the move to 100% ownership of MdB. Hence, our Savannah valuation increases to £170m from £140m, but our per share valuation slips to 16.2p from 17p. Europe’s Most Significant Spodumene Project This MdB deal is very good and gives Savannah 100% ownership of Europe’s most significant spodumene hard rock lithium project at a cheap price. It simplifies the company’s structure and reduces project funding uncertainties.
Yes. The devil is in the detail. And as no one wants to run the numbers. Fully diluted (only counting Gangfeng, no warrants etc) pre tax npv net to bcn is 250musd. Apply 30 % tax and its 175mln usd. And for BCN being in control. Wouldn’t say that.. Bacanora has over 50 % of the project through 30+22.5 % and then - if they want to - an additional 27.5 % of the project. At no premium. That is key here. You are selling 80 % of the asset at no premium, fully dependent of your SP. On the flip side, GFL if anyone can see the project through and npv can go up/down with pricing and smart engineering. But 80 % of that goes to Gangfeng. Quite binary. If it’s good, they will use their options. If bad, well, it doesn’t matter.
Sub 30 % IRR ( it sure if it’s pre or post tax) for Germany makes it really hard to finance. For a big project like Sonora it makes sense. It’s up to the financiers and not us. I’d rather take a low capex high IRR project. But that’s me.
Actually my post was more towards balancing a view to the poster who asked if he was naive/clueless etc. again, good luck. Be open to opposite views is my top of the day.
What’s the fully diluted post tax npv per share net to bcn? Gangfeng has 75 % of the upside. That makes those deals quite easy as they bought without premium and will buy without premium. Sonora economics not great but it’s big so could make sense. All good, for Gangfeng. Germany, not happening. Anyways. Agree to disagree, you have to listen to both sides.