The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
As a day trade or scalp to jump on using a CFD with instant execution its brilliant, because you're never going to have that volatility and hype so readily available. In general everyone is just wanting to get rich quick and posting on social media the millions they've made. No way in hell would I be holding any of those stocks long term! It is unfortunately going to come crashing down on a lot of people in GME buying shares potentially near the top of the squeeze. I wouldn't want to be the last man in when that disorderly exit comes.
Sad true story is I was actually looking into buying a few hundred GME as a laugh 3 weeks ago when The Big Short was showing late night on BBC as its Michael Burry's top holding in his portfolio, but it was low on my list of things to look at. I could've become an accidental millionaire! :'(
I played around in the AMC squeeze as the risk reward was much more palatable than the current prices in GME, flipped it and ran.
LochinvarLass is right that GME was shorted to over 140% of the total float, and it was initiated at a fairly low price too so retail was able to band together and pretty much margin call Melvin Capital. A lot of brokers immediately upped the margin requirements to 100% for leveraged trade for all the high risk stocks like GME, AMC, AAL and KOSS.
Issues arose with stopping actual stock purchases because of the sheer volume of trades going through. We're talking billions of shares traded over average volume at nearly $450 a piece, so none of the brokerage firms actually had the capital to front the trades and payout while the share purchases were being settled with the clearing houses.
You're not going to get everything right all the time. Sitting on 263% return for the last 10months I can afford to be wrong once in a while. However I am still in profit for Sareum, even as a late comer.
But since you feel the need to dig through post history to dispute what is written there direct from the horse's mouth, as I've stated previously I believe the value in this company to be in their SDC 1801/1802 compounds and the other two drugs are side pieces. And until something fundamentally changes to affect that hypothesis I'll remain long here. This is nothing but a lotto call on the potential huge value of their TYK work.
....No matter how much glitter you sprinkle on it Sierra has left SRA737 in a massive turd of a situation.
We may expend our limited resources to pursue a particular product candidate, such as momelotinib, and fail to capitalize on product candidates that may later prove to be more profitable or for which there is a greater likelihood of success. In addition, we may intentionally halt or terminate programs in order to conserve capital and focus on our remaining program or programs, which may increase our reliance on those programs to be successful.
Because we have limited financial and managerial resources, we focus our research and development efforts on our product candidate, momelotinib. As a result, we may advertently or inadvertently forgo or delay pursuit of opportunities with other product candidates, including SRA737, that later prove to have greater commercial potential. Our resource allocation decisions may cause us to fail to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities. Our spending on current and future research and development programs and product candidates for specific indications may not yield any commercially viable product candidates. In addition, if we halt or terminate programs in order to conserve capital and focus on our remaining program or programs, it may increase our reliance on the success of such programs and raise our exposure to the risk of failure among any of our programs.
33
While we have currently suspended development of SRA737, we are exploring options for potential future development of this product candidate, if any. However, there can be no assurance that we will successfully obtain development support or the funding necessary to advance SRA737 on commercially reasonable terms, or at all. If we are unable to obtain such support or funding, we may need to permanently cease development of SRA737.
I'll just leave that there...
"Our portfolio also includes SRA737, a selective, orally bioavailable small molecule inhibitor of Checkpoint kinase 1 (Chk1), an emerging target for the treatment of cancer which has a key role in the DNA Damage Response (DDR). We are currently focusing our resources on the development of momelotinib and have suspended development of SRA737. However, we are exploring options to support potential future continued development of SRA737, if any."
@Belhus - Cheers for that, wasn't aware. Makes me ask WHYYYY!!! Guess great scientists don't always make good businessmen...
@Lazarus2 - I and my account balance do really hope you're right mate...
@sadoldgit - Touch a nerve? Its a manner of speech, I'm more than happy to change it if its suits your pedantism. But the FACT is that Sierra have gone on record stating they're focusing on their own prop. drugs. The FACT is that they have diverted millions in the funding away from SRA737. The FACT is that there is zero mention of the drug at all on their website. The FACT is that they do not need to remove a drug from their advertised pipeline in order to seek partnership. These are all FACTS stated in black and white on Sierra's own regulatory submissions. Just to please you, in my genuine honestly held belief based on the FACTS presented in front of me it seems extremely unlikely that they will be progressing this drug any time soon. However as stated in my previous reply, I and my account balance are more than happy to be proven wrong.
I think people need to come to terms with the fact that nothing is going to happen with Sierra and SRA737 any time soon and stop looking at it through the rose tinted glasses. A lot of US pharma companies have readjusted their pipelines and focus following COVID. There is now zero reference to SRA737 on Sierra's website. Anywhere. It is not shown on their pipeline. It is not shown in development. It is not shown looking for partnership. It's non-existent. If you're a pharma company developing a drug, it'll be on your website, at least somewhere. There are no further clinical trials listed on the US.gov website. The latest releases from the company state that their focus is now on Momelotinib, and their quarterly financials also reflect that with millions of dollars removed from further SRA737 development. Sierra also recently participated at the HC Wainwright investors conference, not one mention of SRA737 either, what it can do or that they're seeking partners.
Following the renegotiation, the language by Sierra was the same cut and paste BS from their last release. Unless Sareum have put a timeline on them, theres nothing stopping Sierra from just sitting on this for years. Not a problem for them, but it is for us if our income is from 3rd party upfront and upside payments.
The next RNS from Sareum we'll have is that it's being handed back and frankly thats the best possible outcome for us. Let's just hope that they had the foresight to include a time limit and termination clauses so we can take it back and move forward.
I don't have a stop loss set on this and didn't see the RNS until well after market close because I wasn't expecting anything to come out, let alone something creating a 30% drop.
Only have a small recently opened position on a gamble here so not really emotionally invested in either time or money. But lets' be totally honest here - if this program was of any value or worth anything to begin with it'd have been licensed for helluva lot more than £50k. "Here I hold the cure for cancer and I'm going to give it to an unnamed Chinese company for less than the price of a decent model Porsche..."
For me the real excitement here is still TYK2/JAK...US firms are giving it a look in but nothing with the Europeans yet. Still holding my lotto ticket looking out for a partnership with GSK or Sanofi.
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis/spotlight/interest-tyk2-might-soon-tick
Is SRA 737 still going forward or has it been mothballed for the time being? Going from Sierra's quarterly releases Q3 they've cut back nearly all the spending on it and have stated their devoting their efforts on Momelotinib. SRA737 doesn't even get a mention in Q4 release. I've written off SRA737 for the time being as I simply don't believe its high on Sierra's priorities.
My hopes in the near term are pinned on the therapeutic uses of SDC1801 for COVID and a FLT3 breakthrough from the Chinese.
@livepari4 "Could be that it was overbought last week in anticipation of deal and now people selling to balance their portfolios. I see it picking up from tomorrow."
Was thinking just the same thing... I was one of these muppets buying in at highs hoping from a Christmas Eve present from BoJo. I'm not cashing out though, will probably average down a little when it settles. I still think Lloyds is one of the safer banks to benefit post-Brexit.
May not be life changing but...every little helps
**I'll get my coat
To be fair to Cupid while everyone is wailing on him, have a look at the historic inverse correlation between the FTSE and GBP in the absence of other external factors. But yes when there is such strong positive investor sentiment when you have stocks moving +5/6% across the entire market any currency effect is currently negligible.
Am I the only one thats looking at the Warner Bros film slate and think the films are pretty $hite anyway??
I’ve been thinking about a new long term green investment (10 years+), and I’m gravitating towards BP. Speaking with a couple colleagues they think I’m crazy to want to go long in an oil major, oil is on the way out...everyones going electric etc etc.
But I think that BP are poised for good recovery in the short term (0-3 years), oil will pick up to moderate levels again, people still need planes, container vessels and cruise ships.
And in the longer term they seem to be making the transition to green energy far quicker than any other competitor. Am I right in thinking they own POLAR and Chargemaster accounting for 70% of UK fast charging infrastructure? They already have extensive access to existing real estate in the UK and abroad to readily convert petrol forecourts into fast charge hubs. Their logo is green and looks like a flower (sounds stupid but branding is a lot nowadays)
They are looking to scale back their oil business and have a lot of assets in that segment of the business they can sell off prior to looking to share holders to raise capital...
...am I missing anything or am I barking mad?
I can see where the studios are coming from with this, and it's interesting seeing the analogy brought up in other threads about eating in and dining out.
Theres a food wholesaler in Battersea that specialises in high end artisan food, your Iberico hams, proscuitto, smoked salmon and what not. They sold only to the fancy restaurants and cafes until COVID hit. To stop themselves from going under they decided to open their doors to the general public. Speaking to the owner while it's been a massive shift away from the way he's used to doing business, he's not selling anywhere near the volumes as before to the restaurants but its ticking over and theres money coming in.
All these restaurants that were supplied by him aren't going to magically close overnight just because he's supplying the public directly too. Folk are still going to go to restaurants and eat his meat, when able and they're still going to make their own meals at home.
People are still going to watch films in the cinema and, they're still going to watch films at home. You'll find it'll likely be the same people that want to stream at home are the same folk who wait to watch it when the Blu Ray comes out.
But if you can't guarantee anyone buying your meats at all, it makes sense to find an alternative way to sell them in the meantime. Especially when the advertising budget of a film can come up to half the actual production costs, they've been stung by running expensive ad campaigns to find the release dates pushed back and end up having to start the hype machine up again.
You just have to look at my post history to see I'm pretty bullish on CINE in the long term but my concern is realistically we're probably looking at 2017 levels of revenue servicing 2020/21 levels of debt in the short term on reopening.
When CINE reopened the first time, I like probably many others on here did the unscientific test of seeing how easy it was to book seats, sadly they didn't seem particularly packed (potentially due to a crud film slate). The massive jump in revenue in 2018 is proportionate to CINE acquiring REGAL out in the states, and also accounts for the big jump in debt. They also done quite a few renovations of old REGAL sites last year that were supposed to pay off within the next 2-4 years. The timing of COVID has just been disastrous for them. You can take on debt, reduce profits to increase market share for longer term domination, such as Amazon circa 2012 (just look at their FCF/share back then) but it's servicing those debt payments in the meantime... COVID goodwill re rent and covenants will only last so long. The interest outlay alone is pretty staggering. The next 6 months will be make or break for them.
I won't compare Arcadia being able to draw funds to CINE. Arcadia has been struggling for years, mainly because just like BHS Phillip Green has no interest in actually running businesses and stripped it bare. Mooky is pretty invested, interested and genuinely seems to care.
5 green candles daily in a row on the daily, I'm not worried too much just yet.
Playing with the chart on CMC Markets, showing almost a text book tweezer top on the daily and the same ascending wedge breakdown as October on the hourly, as long as it doesn't crater like last time I'm hoping for a reversal from this level a la 30th November and a slow grind upwards through to mid-January. Software predicted minimum pain of 314, max of 295.85 so we could potentially see a nice bounce from here.
Historically this price level is one hell of a pivot in either direction...
Trading 212 has limited the maximum CFD buy quantity to 1000 shares, they're clearly of the view that this is going to run and don't want to have to pay out.
Take a look at the FCA shorts disclosure of where the remaining funds that are short here have first opened their positions and extrapolate their average. The newest short position is TEKNE with an average likely in the 60's from the open date, I'd be starting to worry if I was them. However the other remaining shorts have positions first started and maintained from £1.50 - £2 so they are still well in the money. I have a gut feeling that rather than shorts manipulating this is Jangho selling into the rise, but guess will have to wait and see.