Member Info for Tomolo89

The company seems to be in a better position than a year ago, unless there's some insider knowledge going on dropping the share price. I'll be topping up until it goes back above 0.8p

Just need to wait for the next trading update. Shares are being bought back, company clearly sees these levels as a deep discount.

Yeah as soon as the market started to turn. Around 80p was the previous floor, we'll see when buying resumes again.

Seems a good buy at these price levels with the RNS this morning? Gold price holding well, has potential.

Looks like the company have restarted the buyback today. We'll see an RNS tomorrow most likely.

I was expecting a large buyback purchase announcement this morning after the increase in share price over the past few days. Very encouraging that this was a natural re-rate without insider involvement. If my understanding is correct, it'll be a few days before the company can buy more shares now with the rules regarding the 5 day moving average as long as the share price is sustained, which is even more encouraging for when they resume the buyback.

The key change on how the income is reported means that the balance sheet is artificially lowered for the next couple of years, as they already reported the full existing contract revenue in previous tax years. At these low levels there is a real chance to make a great return, so long as the company manages to keep their impressive customer retention percentages in the high 90s.

I really like this share as a long term hold, got a lot tucked away to see what happens with the share buybacks and dividend.

You should have been sent all the information when the offer was first announced. It was a rather lengthy document but I read it all. All shares in your work scheme would be tax free if they are bought out at the offer price, even if they haven't been in the scheme for long enough and are current marked as unavailable to sell.

If you sell your shares through the work scheme before the takeover then you will have to pay tax.

If you accept the offer price and sell in the outcome that the takeover goes ahead then you will not be taxed.

Revenue rose from letters, for the first 6 months, due to the price increases.

We've had another major price increase and we're coming up to our busiest time of year for letters. I'll be surprised if revenue hasn't increased for both parcel and letters year on year. Parcel volumes are crazy in my office. Letters are manageable for the moment, which means we're hitting our targets.

I added more shares today and will continue to do so.

I honestly believe the share price will be double after our election year. If royal mail can return to profitability then there should be big dividends to come.

Just had a crazy busy day. The bloke driving the lorry to our delivery office said the mail centre couldn't fit all the parcels on, so we're in for another busy one tomorrow.

I buy more shares the busier we get. Yes I'm just one office, but having seen the performance results nationally we aren't far off getting back to USO compliance and tra

Just in response to the previous comment. Nationally, I don't forsee the 98% USO target as achievable. So the £250 per worker won't be paid for any of the weeks. But the local targets will be achieved by some offices. My office is quite small and we have a handful of crazy hardworking staff who are helping to mop up all the overtime. So unless someone goes sick tomorrow, we might just hit the targets... it'll be close though!

I was chatting with some of the new starters about their pay. They earn £12.30 an hour, whereas an existing posty receives a higher basic plus a delivery supplement totalling £14.16 an hour. This is a saving of around £4k a year per employee and I'm surprised the shareprice isn't doing better than it is.

I added more shares this week, parcels have gone crazy and I'm predicting only a narrow loss full year for royal mail.

Having been lucky enough to get out before the crash, I didn't see myself ever getting back in on this one. But with such a big % increase of bitcoin, versus a small increase in Argo's share price, here I am.

If bitcoin holds, then I think we should see at least 10-20% increase risk week. If BTC continues to rise then I won't be selling my shares.

I'm a posty and I go by how busy we are to when I start adding more shares. Yes, I only see a snapshot from the view of my office but we've had a fair few busy days now.

When you're delivering twice as many tracked as you normally would be, including more special delivery items, it seems inevitable to me that the share price will eventually increase.

Far too many cost savings going on in Royal Mail to not be profitable by next year in my opinion.

Yes some people will book overtime when seasonal variation swings to a shorter week. The point is on average we do finish earlier in the summer. It's just a way of getting posties to work 2 hour for free in winter and not change their workload in summer.

Before seasonal variation we would finish say 2 hrs early a week and go home. Then in winter we would book 2hrs overtime. It's just a way of clawing back some of the natural variation with a seasonal workload.

24 minutes every day at winter is a guaranteed saving as you pretty much go over every day. In summer, most days you'll finish on time or better (depending on your office) - yes you get the odd crazy day every now and again, but it's nothing in comparison to winter pressure.

So, I work for Royal Mail and can give you the numbers and reason for the 24 minutes extra.

Why 24 minutes? Because 24*5 is 120. Or in other words 2 hours. Why is 2 hours significant? Because a few years ago all new 'full time' contracts were applied at a maximum of 35 hours, despite real full time being 37hrs. This 2 hour disparity attracts a supplement which takes into account the difference between full time 35/37 contracts. It's called SSPR rate and is inclusive of an extra payment that all posties receive, delivery supplement. Now this delivery supplement, when added to the basic wage creates an hourly wage of slightly over £14 an hour. The first 2 hours of overtime that 'full time' 35 hours (or less) contracted workers are the most expensive to the company and therefore they will use this flexible working agreement to try and reduce the need for any overtime.

There are a significant portion of full time 35 hour and part time workers employed at royal mail. This 2 hour weekly saving is worth millions of pounds a week and is a really savvy move by the number crunchers.

No more fake stamps

Less staff

Super sorting hubs

Price increases

I personally think we'll be having a great turnaround very soon.

Incentivising a 2nd class letter model means a massive cost reduction potential. If Royal mail are successful in pushing all users over to a 2nd class timeframe then it means rounds which previously went out every day could be rotated to significantly reduce staff overtime.

If you've got 3 days to deliver a second class letter, why would you deliver it the next day (unless you were going to that address with a parcel anyway).

I won't be surprised to see first class letters sorted separately to 2nd class in the near future to ensure next day delivery along with parcels. Those 2nd class letters will simply wait in the frames until it's the designated day of delivery for that particular street.

I'm a posty and a shareholder. I personally think this vote will be accepted, depending on how late a shift the later start times will be and just how family friendly flexible the company will be.

Our small office has seen 3 staff leave in the last couple of months, two more have handed in their notice in the last week and I expect another 2 to leave by the end of the year. Of course the company is waiting until a deal is agreed before making any replacements, as to hire on worse T&C's.

The savings that this deal will make the company are huge and I fully expect the share price to reflect this once the deal is voted in.

Why I think it'll be a yes vote:

Voter turnout will play a huge part in this ballot.

We know that the people that crossed the picket line will definitely almost all vote to put an end to the bullying and stress that they have received over the last year. The company announced this number of staff as around 15000 if I recall correctly. That is a significant proportion of guaranteed yes votes if turnout is low.

The people who want a payrise and don't mind the new terms and conditions, as it affects them less than others. e.g those without children or who rarely take sick leave. This will also be a large number of employees and again, those in this criteria will definitely be coming out to put an end to the loss of earnings that strike action has brought about, in order to secure the pay increase and lump sum.

I'm estimating a 65% yes vote to 35% no vote with a 75% turnout.

Very plausible that this could be the end for Simon Thompson. The amount of proposed changes and the effect they would have on the workforce are too much for the union to accept. The board needs to understand that for many Royal Mail workers, these changes will mean they'd need to/be better off finding a job elsewhere. So why would they ever agree to them?

If this continues into December then I'm worried. What Christmas retailer would rely on royal mail if there is a 0% chance of the order being delivered on time when ordered a few days before Xmas. Mass shift away from royal mail parcels incoming unless the board make a major change in direction. The CWU have shown they're not backing down. Two 'final offers' rejected almost instantly by the CWU shows how far apart they still are.

If a new CEO were to come in, they'd likely accept all the concessions the CWU have made and drop the rest of the proposals that they won't budge on and quickly sort this mess out.

Interesting times!

It depends on how big a likelihood bankruptcy is for you. For the moment, dilution should be off the table due to the drastic reaction over the last month. So unless you genuinely believe the company is on its way out, then now is a good low price to buy back in.
Bitcoin has been very stable and I personally think the company will look for alternative loans to see them through. I've only got a small amount of shares at 7.35p, but that's a price I'm happy to gamble at