Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Andybe4.
I have found your post-catastrophe comments to be well-reasoned in the circumstances. I have just skim read some other recent comments, and many of us hold similar views as to what went wrong, and what would be the best way forward.
I believe that in the event of an entity acquiring 30% of the company, and contemplating a buyout, they would be obliged to offer shareholders the highest price achieved over the last 12 months c. 212p per share. I doubt whether many retail investors would refuse that offer in the current circumstances?
Regards, and good wishes.
It is still "early doors". I have just spotted one relatively big buy at £50K. Hopefully, a sign of further share price escalation to come?
sativa.
The least damaging exit for all concerned is currently a buyout by a large pharmaceutical company. The year high share price of c.230p would more than satisfy most investors at the current time. Additionally, the buyer would be acquiring a potentially valuable drug at a considerable reduction to previous buyout estimates.
It is a win-win for all concerned, including Synairgen directors, whose shareholdings would be worth considerably more than at present. As an investor I was hoping for a long term investment in this company. Sadly, it would now take a miracle for Synairgen to ameliorate its current situation, and restore investor confidence.
Thank you for your response Ghia. Your points are well stated and accepted. It is easy for me to be wise in hindsight. Bearing in mind the importance of the P3 Sprinter trial, perhaps the company should have maintained the original trial size? Additionally, there should have been greater awareness of factors that might have compromised the outcome , such as the improved standard of care administered to the patients when compared with previous trials? I remain hopeful of a successful outcome for SNG001, although I am less certain about its range of applicability than before? You are right in that the company has always conducted itself in a professional manner, and that there is sufficient stock in position for further trials if that is deemed to be the next step? I look forward to further feedback from the company.
The ill judged RNS last Monday has reduced my confidence in their ability to bring what I see as a very important product to market. The fact that the stock market reset the company's MCap to the £25m cash balance at the outset of Monday's trading speaks volumes. There was a similar effect, though to a lesser extent, following the underwhelming presentation of the P2 Home Trial results. Lessons should have been learned from that unfortunate event. My view on this may well change if the company can take appropriate steps to quickly restore some market confidence following last Monday's disastrous RNS. However, at the present time my wish, as an investor, would be for a large pharmaceutical company to pick up the baton. This would serve the purpose of bringing what I view as a very important drug to market considerably faster than is currently possible under Synairgen's stewardship. Additionally, investors would be able to walk away with their investment capital restored, and even with some profit?
Doc83.
I have been thinking the same all evening. The company did not learn from the mistakes made in the Phase 2 Home trial. The devastating RNS issued last Monday is purely as a consequence of yet another flawed trial. They got away with it last time, and as they were able to spin something positive from the outcome . It seems less likely that the same will be true from the Sprinter results. Their naivety in spending so much capital on forward planning, and failing to such an extent in the Phase III trial is questionable. They have developed a very good product, but whether they have the strategic capability to bring it to market raises more questions? My hope is that the there will be sufficient in the ACTIV-2 P2 results, together with the data from the company's own trials to attract the attention of a major pharmaceutical company?
I am being somewhat disloyal to the Synairgen team, who have otherwise earned my respect. However, their important product needs to be brought to market. It is doubtful whether the company as it stands has the capability to deliver?
....... with the latest information from Polygon. In particular as I "gambled" on future good news on Monday afternoon, following several hours of thought. I purchased another 50K SNG shares for c. £13K. This still leaves me with a mean share price of 113p for my 200K shares. I am still dancing with the devil, but it is good to have Polygon as a dance partner.
Good luck to all Synairgen investors. We will need quite a few more ducks to line up from here, but today's news eases the "pain" considerably.
Thank you Doc83.
It was indeed your chillingly accurate phrase that I quoted earlier. If only the share price had moved in the opposite direction? I was reassured by your reply as I have been with other constructive contributions this week. Your comments are reflected to various degrees in these other contributions, showing that we are all looking for a positive way forward from the current situation. I remain hopeful, and like you, am first awaiting some further clarification from the company, or some indication as to how the IIs will proceed from here.
Regards and good wishes.
"It’s disgusting that the MMs did that, surely 40-50% would be have been more fair?"
In last Monday's RNS, the company declared that it retained £25m in working capital. The opening share price valued the company at near enough that amount. A stark valuation by anybody's estimation, but this is what realists on this board were expecting. I still remember the "£10 or 10p" thread, which emphasised the binary nature of this investment. The contributor who initiated that thread was 100% correct as far as the downside was concerned.
I am genuinely sorry to read about the suffering of so many good people during the last few days. Most of us have taken this journey over the last eighteen months. We have shared high hopes, but everything ground to an abrupt halt at 07:00 GMT last Monday.
I may be delusional, but have not given up on this investment. Richard Marsden and his team may well be able to salvage something out of the situation. Originally I was looking at doubling my investment in two years; my current aspiration is to exit with my original investment capital. A MCap of £220-230m is needed for that to happen. Whether this is now possible remains to be seen?
Everything depends on the next move from the institutional investors? If they, like me, are down by c. 80%, they will be reluctant to sell at the current share price. The deeper analysis from the Sprinter trial results together with the ACTIV-2 P2 data, when it emerges, will give us all more information regarding what might be possible.
On the evidence from the outcomes of the P2 Home and P3 Sprinter trials, the company has conducted two successive flawed trials from which it was difficult to deduce anything of value. This together with the time taken up by the trials means that Synairgen has missed valuable opportunities, that might have otherwise materialised. I am not apportioning any blame, but pointing out that the company was over ambitious in its growth strategy, and perhaps should have focused solely on verifying the efficacy of its product before proceeding with the next steps? Everything always seems so obvious in hindsight.
As ever, I extend my very best wishes to every genuine investor on this board. We have all been hit by a metaphorical sledgehammer this week, but life goes on.
Thank you Kevin1977. I was about to write something similar, but could not express it better than you have done. Synairgen has not gone from a company full of optimism, to what some of these perverse individuals describe, overnight. All genuine long term Synairgen holders are still nursing a massive disappointment from yesterday's RNS, and should not read too much into the comments of recent visitors to this board.
I have checked my notes, and could find nothing to suggest that the trial outcomes would not be met. I do not blame the company or any of the major personnel involved. They were all true to themselves throughout the last year or so. The major issue as I see it lies with the design of the last two company-led trials. Both failed to demonstrate the selected outcomes for different reasons. An objective contributor gave a positive critique of yesterday's RNS from a statistical standpoint, focusing on the fact that an improved trial design would have resulted in the statistically significant outcome that the company was seeking.
When I showed the RNS to my wife, whose role included the clear presentation of information for a large organisation, she was surprised at its stark negativity. This was undoubtedly another own goal by the company, with a far greater consequence on the company's MCap than last year's presentation of the company's Home Trial results. This surprised me given the huge improvements in information from the company previously brought about by a capable recently appointed director of communications.
Many unfamiliar contributors will continue to harp on about Synairgen's demise for the short term. They either have a financial interest in doing so, or are the kind of perverse twisted individuals which I have always tried to avoid at all costs. I shall pay little attention to their contributions.
All the best to you and your family Kevin. Enjoy your holiday this week. I remain a believer in this company and its personnel. There are uncertain times ahead, but I choose to believe, based on my detailed research over nearly 18 months, that it will recover over time.
Thank you GGGT.
You have summed up today's unfortunate news perfectly. Sadly, many of us were in a position to exit at the end of last year with a good profit, but chose to believe in the company, and the science underpinning SNG001. In doing so, I lost sight of the disappointment that followed the home trial results last year. There is even greater disappointment today. I intend to hold, and am hopeful of some recovery in the longer term.
Your advice on investing in AIM is valuable, and will help to shape my investment strategy in the future. Additionally, I will resist the temptation to invest so much in a single company in the future.
I should add that this thread originated from a green rectangle. Hardly surprising!
Regards, and I wish you better fortune with future investments.
It is impossible to buy any shares -even 5000 - at the moment. I am as disappointed as the next person, though not despondent. I have maintained my shareholding for 15 months. I haven't bought or sold a share in that time, and intend to hold my stake for an indefinite period - at least until I can get my original stake back. This may well take several years.
My advice to fellow investors. Stay away from bulletin boards for the time being. They will be rife with not so nice individuals, as this morning has proven. These people are best avoided as they are not here for any good purpose.
How could so many of us, with such detailed positive research underpinning this product have got it so wrong? In particular, I would be interested in obtaining some feedback from the Reddit Synairgen group, whose opinions mirrored the long term optimism of this board.
Good luck everyone. Keep well, and look after yourselves.
I am surprised that some contributors are dissecting and underplaying today's news. All positive developments, however small, are welcome in my opinion. I do agree though that it is high time for Alessandro Zamboni to deliver the long overdue first IM deal to truly launch SYME for once and for all.
There has been very little churn of late. I suspect that the more significant (though still on the small side) sells are due to investors moving some of their capital elsewhere while awaiting developments? Like others who contribute to this board, I am wondering whether IB might be sold to a larger company, which might be in a position to proliferate its technology more rapidly? As things stand, this is an investment for the long term, as progress seems to be slow, although encouraging at times.
The pandemic is not going away anytime soon, despite the optimism conveyed by Governments including our own.
From an article in today's New York Times:
* The Omicron surge seems to be slowing in much of the world, but the W.H.O. said it was keeping an eye on an Omicron subvariant. New cases worldwide dropped 19 percent from Feb. 7 to Feb. 13 compared with the week before. But, the agency added, the drop in testing rates around the world means global case numbers might not reflect the true spread of the virus.
* The W.H.O. also cautioned that the subvariant of Omicron, BA.2, appeared to be “steadily increasing” and was now the dominant variant in China, India, ****stan, Bangladesh and the Philippines. Denmark was the first nation to report that BA.2 had overtaken BA.1, the version of Omicron that first swept through the world.
* Scientists have said there is no evidence that BA.2 is more lethal than BA.1, though BA.2 could slow Omicron’s decline. Vaccines appear to be just as effective against BA.2 as they are against other forms of Omicron.
Thank you for pointing that out volatility. Fruitsnveg and Docdaneeka had hinted at the same thing a few weeks ago, although they apparently hadn't checked jaffjoon's posts? I had similar thoughts, but gave jaffjoon the benefit of the doubt as he seems to be a nice guy. Bearing in mind the time line he has created, it is going to be difficult for him to explain away the discrepancy when he finally announces the "birth".
The other question is why did he bother to spin this yarn in the first place? It had an element of "feel good" about it, although jaffjoon had reached the point that he was somewhat repetitive and boring in his contributions. Someone wrote the other day that he would sell all his shares and go away for good, if jaffjoon repeated the tale one further time.
My initial expectation for the declaration of the Sprinter results was January 2022; subsequently I have extended it to the end of the current month. If this fails to happen, I will further extend my anticipated date to the end of Q1. By this time, I will have exhausted "early 2022".
I care little about when the results finally arrive, and am more interested in their quality. At this point, there is little doubt in my mind that the results will secure a serious upgrade to the company's MCap. Moreover, the longer the results take to arrive, the more I am inclined towards thoughts of a potential bidding process to buy the company. This would be my preferred endpoint, provided the offers are realistic, bearing in mind the quality of the company and its primary product.
Based on what I have read here, I view the Redditt Synairgen group as a mere mortal might look up at the Gods on Mount Olympus. Oakleaf72 has often described himself as their messenger. He has apparently brought us tidings of great joy in cryptic form this afternoon. I would like to know exactly what I going on? I could offer some guesses, all of them positive. I suspect that it won't be too long before the truth is revealed.
MrCosts may show signs of inconsistency, but his comments are always thoughtful and on task. It is reasonable to ponder whether Richard Marsden is currently working hard (probably true, if his excellent work on Synairgen's behalf is anything to go by), or else away on a (well deserved in my opinion) break?
Yesterday the board was visited by members of the crazy gang. One of them suggested that RM was less efficient than before? I would claim that there is plenty of evidence to support a diametrically opposite opinion to that one. One DC comics reader, who was possibly on the wrong board, wanted to organise a "League of Shareholders" (sounds a bit like Sean Connery's last film) with a view to overthrowing Richard Marsden for his" late delivery of results"? This is despite the fact that our highly esteemed CEO remains well on track to deliver by early 2022, as he previously anticipated. I wish that these badly informed occasional visitors to this bulletin board would take themselves elsewhere for their amusement.
All investors should remember that no one forced us to take our investment decisions. We undertake research, and conduct our business subsequently. I agree that Alessandro Zamboni’s comments regarding timescales have been lamentable, and have left a trail of frustrated investors in their wake.
However, we can only blame ourselves on this occasion. As a serious investor, I have always owned my decisions. On this occasion, I still retain a strong opinion that this stock will turn a corner in Q2, 2022, and will remain a long term hold in my portfolio. The patience of Job is currently required , but it will be well worth the wait.