Member Info for Thorpedo

HH3 wont be drilled until HH2/2z are proven. UKOG will not spend the money (it does or doesnt have) on it until HH Portland is proven via HH2.

HH1z, I presume that this is not been drilled yet for 2 reasons. It is producing and making an income for UKOG at the moment. The only significant income it is currently getting currently and the second reason being UKOG may still be working out the best way to get the maximum out of the Kimmeridge.

Once (hopefully) HH2/2z is proved then UKOG will move on to the next drill. Whether it would be the low hanging fruit of HH3 in to Portland or HH1z in to the great potential Kimmeridge is for SS to decide. If it was up to me it would be HH3.

Seadoc
Thanks I have added it to my reading list.

I have managed to average down to 1.37 (which is about the same as YA's maximum conversion rate) I think long term the SP will far in excess of what it is now. There will be spikes which I am not clever enough to sell at and then buy back lower so I will hold for long term growth.

Strangely when I go to the races part of the fun I get is getting the odds at the right price and getting better odds than the SP (Starting Price). Even when the horse/dog doesnt win I feel as though I have beaten the bookies.

Tellurian forward sold before the deal, hence no TR1 on their 275m shares. What they have done since is anyones guess. I presume that they are selling as and when they need to.

I am not sure if YA's limit of £3m per quarter rolls forward or not. If it doesnt roll forward any sells are probably them clearing the shares before the next quarter starts on the 16th of this month.

Hopefully Tellurian are out or nearly out and YA are restricted to £3m as £3m sells isnt going to dampen the SP much if the CPR is good.

That said I am not looking to sell on a good CPR, my investment is here for at least the next two years with all the various ups and downs that will bring.

drawdown not conversion

Scallywag3
130% of the SP on 16 August - the loan conversion date, which was at about 1.05 at the time.

Sachs1
The YA three months period for £3m ends on 16th November after which they are free to sell the remaining £4.2m at will.

The bigger question for me about YA is why have they only sold £1.3 when they could have sold £3m. I have seen YA operate in other shares and their MO seems to get as much of their cash back as quickly as possible. I have seen them delay final conversions before but not on this scale. Could it be that they believe the SP will rise and they have a maximum purchase price of 1.37 so the profit is potentially huge. They have an almost guaranteed 15% but they can delay for potentially 10 times that.

Scallywag3
Whilst I dont usually agree with Penguins I do on this point. I think my calculation (which I dont have to hand) was the maximum conversion price is 1.37.

I am happy with this as the SP was 0.85 when the deal was announced. With the 10% discount YA could have got then the conversion price was 0.76.

Or put another way the £5.5m loan could only cost £3m of dilution as at the deal date price.

Idespair
Correct Tellurian must have forward sold some of their shares before 11 September 2019, hence no TR1 for them. They may have completely sold out or be selling now. I guess we will never know.

Seadoc
"I challenge you. When have I lied?"

When you stated that there wouldnt be enough money to light a lightbulb (or something to that respect) There was in fact £12m. Do you want other examples.

Seadoc
You still havent explained what you could have gleamed from a copy of HHDL's micro-company accounts from 31 December 2018 that would be relevant as of now over 9 months later. They provide a snapshot of the balance sheet as of that date. For reference a copy of the 2017 accounts can be found here. https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/document-api-images-live.ch.gov.uk/docs/Y2SPis4wWfZdNEx8pHO4nK15UTMZLhoS0uQjubQ_Zg0/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3OTWE56HW%2F20191025%2Feu-west-2%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20191025T153725Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=AgoJb3JpZ2luX2VjEDwaCWV1LXdlc3QtMiJHMEUCICI97aKomOVbzfxDFoYDSVKfF46UKWoS%2FfGcVytnYqWTAiEA5WtRP5tQ1zqL3ApocXEqTXhnanHpMg0QLM%2FyjxumrXYq2gMIRRACGgw0NDkyMjkwMzI4MjIiDDK6TCzSy%2BuWmD06Riq3A1EptlWyW9lnTVQHtk8%2B0%2F1lAxY%2B3y3EYO8c9bA%2FKOBNzl8sL7JZmlBT9X%2BOL%2BwaJiNIVEXQHe%2B4pGFn857PqQu8Zvs996ceq7qj%2Fd4aWVAxSDW%2BaLCW1p1p%2FWvAgGKJIRoQm2NSHrgmbbQKaCOBrzLVr0SduANKCArqoEs955VJbK796MxAahdOzetf1KMACSGlQrwti8uc4uoEnnyT7wzUMREGQzzXjqcG260zTHpHViufYegRrb10WrMoPMnN25ccx9xmEFvo1aXnKQQREuo%2FRsbAD%2FFRDmNa18LL8ETSDAuEWjnAXSsQYOG7gMjv68VukOGHOhQI377xhKvgzGYJ0SArSiDdRZK%2BQgXdSqWxPrzDRWhAYIAhxJNZTSQlJC15S1O2L%2BesfEEyZ1kPfknngkuXAaDu1ISqq9FZGUrcnTHOHzziD65eoKIgQJXpfxrrpje29BnutU4tEL4hibMU9WjnXkjIzwgOqJy6tmUcvK6Rch8vnIddbGC%2BtzAKjzLUxlq%2FFg77YSZDKgp5O9XD%2FYBzaG123y0351V9d6cShn9Xk6tQ5oRbptVEWx8%2FrGLsl1uh%2FDcwmLfL7QU6tAGszUc9mjujuwR29c%2BOgVphqMBfZfR80mFfoMW2stnmcj7Idmr0K4JEqwTUwrZcShLSJV5wsQEdCoeIb8Budh49YnRaGR5s2muH5Wotx7bmHCMzR12NqbrSKtitlyww8ZNIHx6arkCxS5seb4nn8J1Evg%2Bzsu4N6CLk%2B0EGZFI3225owQoRBU%2Fbf9VzE%2BtXwPck2n3y4VEU7zraIVGk6A13mU2TSRlzobxqqKR4xZX77d0rUJg%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=16e5351ca0893c3a26041798e6ed7220dcd52c920edee5a2ed49a1d20792f924 you will see there isnt much you can gleam from them.

Also HHDL posted the Consolidated accounts on Companies House just for you.

JayKay
"To suggest I'm 'deliberately misleading by ignoring relevant facts' just isn't on, and you know it..."

I think we both know that you are.

Good luck in your stratagy whatever it may be. Mine is to wait for success or otherwise of HH, IOW, BB and see what happens. Short term dips wouldn't normally bother me but with the YA issue they do. The lesser shares they get the lesser money I get when the value is correctly realised.

That said every conversion to date is well above the 0.85 price when the deal was done. So the £12m is more like £10m for " Bleeding profusely" I am happy. xx

JayKay
Then you are proving that your statements are deliberately misleading by ignoring relevant facts.

JayKay

Yes I agree a P/E of 25 is inappropriate do we agree that a P/e on HHs profits of 12.5 is reasonable.

JayKay
The BPs have a higher P/E because they have a higher percentage of plays in production than development. The younger Companies are developing wells and therefore the costs of the development reduces the profits and therefore the P/E.

Or for example let's say UKOG HH make profits of £40m pa and get the market P/E of 12.5 that would give a Mcap of £500m. If they spent £20m of that on say developing Godley Bridge then the profits would be £20m but the Mcap would still be £500m giving a P/E of 6.25 similar to the P/E you state.

Yes

Penguins
There was a Kimmeridge update on 30 September. I, as someone who is invested, dont need a daily update.

This drill is mainly about getting Portland to production this year. The progress of this is what is and should be RNS'd.

As you have said previously to others stick to the facts what has been RNS'd and dont speculate about what hasnt.

Now we know why SS had to take out Magelan before the start of the drill.

A 69% increase in UKOG share of a pie which keeps growing.

Wizard
It says it because that is what is going to happen. HH1 and HH2z will be in production by the end of the year.

YA operate on the basis of getting their cash back as quickly as possible so they can lend it again and also to reduce risk.

That said I have seen them pull back before on other shares once they have received a good chunk of their money back but not all of it.

Their maximum price is c. 1.375 so the rewards are there should they wait for a CPR to me it is a no lose gamble for them to wait but as said above that is not how they generally operate.

Penguins
Look at the date of the 1,946,922 reported today. It is dated Tuesday the 8th.