Member Info for theski

Hmmmm...If it were results from KML assays wouldn't MTR trading be halted on the ASX too?

I don't know...I've not been fortunate enough to get in on one of those shares that "rockets" but from what I gather it's usually because they are hyped up! I suppose we're just lacking anyone influential enough to make that happen- it's probably for the best....

Well they've not started mining yet have they....? Plan says next year but who knows what could happen between now and then- Trump, covid, Ukraine...what next?

I'm happy to hold and watch things unfold- electrification as a macro theme, commodities supercycle, Cu shortage. It's the timing that we don't know for sure but all the elements are coming together to make a very valuable NSR for many years.

Indeed he did and it sounds perfectly reasonable to me. Simplistically we're looking at 2% of (mass of Cu x price of Cu) - costs. It's a bit more complicated in the early years depending on which licence area the ore comes from (i.e. T3 or not) but that's where it's heading. The mine construction costs might be being paid outright but assuming a 10% mortgage rate on the construction cost of $259M and something like 20% of the turnover is spent on other costs (power, transportation etc) at $8,000/t the NSR is over $6Mpa. With more deposits and further increases in capacity likely it's reasonable to consider this is only the "base case".

Well...I'm pleased that the CEO now has more shares in the company than I do but I wonder what's got into him lately!

Well...I was just catching up with Artemis and the seeming debacle at Carlow Castle!

Good to know that MTR have multiple people with technical background on the board (unlike Artemis from what I gather...).

That's useful Jonfon- the price right now is well justified on that basis. It's hard to put value on the NSRs but what we do know is-

-T3 should contribute from next year (capped at £2M)
-A4 will bolster the T3 output... I estimate that it's worth ~£3M pa.
-There are many other targets that would be covered by the NSR.

In 10 years time it is easy to see that the NSRs should be returning 10s of £Ms pa, which is nice (investment feels "safe")...but not particularly exciting. If they keep finding Cu and the Cu price keeps rising I expect things to develop much faster. We're getting there but it's still early days as I see it.

Adam

That's some link you pasted there...!

Obviously we're keen to see SFR get into production as that will start to realise value from our NSRs. This year is when construction should begin at T3 and I'm trying to get a clearer picture of the risk that COVID presents to this. As I understand it Botswana is doing "relatively" well compared to the UK (i.e. in terms of cases) but it seems Botswana will be waiting some time for the vaccine (e.g. https://www.ft.com/content/8c67349a-4fd2-3de7-a71f-1a72e72cddf2 ) so things could be problematic for some time.

I presume (perhaps naively) that drilling isn't really affected as I imagine this is relatively easy to socially distance, rather, it will be the mine construction activities that suffer but does anyone else have any insight on this?

Adam

Nice to see he is consistent in the ratings (with all of his picks). It's only a short update for MTR but understated in my opinion (and I'm not complaining!)-

"The nearby Sandfire T3 and A4 deposits are located close to the Kalahari Metals Kitlanya East Project, highlighting the development potential here. That’s not priced in."

Woah! That is not what I said! I don’t think the MOD takeover had anything to do with the LSE listing...

I also don't know why anyone in the UK would transfer shares to the ASX.

Back in November we hoped the news on A4 and associated value of the NSR would kick things up a notch...but it didn't. I agree that the dual listing isn't likely to change anything in the short term but it's all about the long haul and it can't be a bad thing to facilitate buying from a bigger audience. I seem to remember MOD listing in London didn't make any difference (and they were bought by SFR soon after).

I did buy some more this week- still holding... Think this was posted last week but worth a read if anyone missed it- https://www.miningmx.com/news/base-metals/44909-gold-executives-who-turned-to-copper-say-botswana-will-join-ranks-of-important-producers/

"Every time it looks like its getting somewhere, it doesn't".... can't sum it up any better than that! I still believe it's a great investment though- I believe we're undervalued so I keep my money where it is. I'm happy that the value isn't being diluted and there's every chance of a exciting find from the long list of companies MTR has invested in (I'm particularly intrigued by SAU).

I calculate the 2% NSR of the (now base-case) 50ktpa SFR Cu mine to be worth ~£3M per annum (at 8000USD/t) and if SFR can stick to their timelines that's a serious income stream that should materialise from next year onwards (for many years!). Multiply that if you believe in the district potential of the KCB (for SFR and CBE/KML) which isn't hard to do given the exploration data already available.

Keep the faith!

Adam

Another good sized one today...

That's a good question. Last RNS on it says Q4 2020 but that was in August.

The PAM prospectus came out in July and they went on to list in October. Given that we've not seen a prospectus it seems unlikely that it will be this year.

2% of much of it...just not the Namibian bits (but Botswana is SFR's priority).

No idea why we're up so much today but I like to think it's because I've started posting- should have done it years ago!

Thanks Mike- reassuring as ever. I don't disagree but there's been so many times that I thought we'd move to a new "trading range" I (personally) just can't get excited until it actually happens. There's not been anything like the NSR before though (and I'm not giving up!).

TF1- Potter is on many boards as you say...I've not heard much about David Royle since he was appointed- any idea if he's on any boards?

How long Chestec? I always take some comfort in knowing that bigMJ has been invested longer than anyone and always sounds perfectly content. Clearly he can afford to wait...

Morning all- it seems that the chat is only visible if logged in to LSE now so I've logged in and thought I may as well finally post...! I've been holding since 2014 at 1.6p (I think) and kept up to date through this forum, having bought many more since. I've seen posters come and go and often think I must be mad to have held on this long and committed so much time to keeping up to date, but all in all I'm still a believer. Good luck all and thanks for posting.