Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I read a few weeks ago that Venkat, like Staley before him, was saying the bank had to make it up to shareholders and that he and the board spent long hours wondering how to lift the SP. Totally disingenuous comment given that in the last fifteen years, shareholders have been treated like an unwanted cost and the sp**** cash dividends paid by the bank are done so through gritted teeth. Ever wondered what the CEO's in the last 15 years have done for shareholders?
John Varley - appointed 1/9/04 when SP was £4.78.
Bob Diamond - appointed 1/1/11 when SP was £1.71
Anthony Jenkins - appointed 30/8/12 when SP was £1.70
Jes Staley - appointed 1/12/2015 when SP was £2.28
Venkat - appointed 1/11/2021 when SP was £1.95
Current SP £1.68
So only Jenkins can say he left the SP in a better place than where he found it! But the bank continue to wrap itself up in legal failings and the board continue to plough the same aimless furrow - a further round of buybacks that in the years so far, have taken the SP from £1.83 to £1.68 and have not benefitted shareholders in any way. As for the cash dividend, based on the pathetically low SP of £1.87 yesterday, 7.5p equates to a return of 3.8% - I opened an account paying interest of 4.25% a few days ago! What is the incentive to invest when CEO's have a proven track record of destroying the SP (and thus shareholders capital investment) through the cavalier way they run the bank, where personal reward is all that matters to them. Those who continually argue that this bank stock is cheap and the SP will soon be back over £3, I am afraid are deluding themselves. Sub-£2 is the established norm for this stock. I continue to hold out for the unlikely aim of getting out at £2.40 - but I will I think, have to wait an awful long time and this bank has got to change how it goes about things.
An utter disgrace!
Just curious. With the excitement generated in the financial sector yesterday about a possible takeover of Standard Chartered, with the potential buyer now backing away, it got me wondering as to whether some entity would make my day and seek to take over Barclays. There is no obvious reason why this would happen, or happen anytime soon and is pure speculation. But were it to happen imminently, is there anyone out there knowledgeable enough to suggest, in ball-park terms, what price per share, the Barclays board would recommend acceptance to shareholders? I don't have that knowledge and have to go with my gut feeling and would suggest around £3.50. Any other views?
I'll stick my neck out again, given that Barcs has just fallen 6p in a little over a day and is still falling. On 3rd Nov, the day of the last BOE rates rise, the Barcs SP fell to £1.46. The following day it closed out at £1.53. I predict it will hit back to touch £1.61 at some time tomorrow. If I had the money, I'd put it where my mouth is, but I don't and I don't expect anyone to follow my advice. GLA.
Thanks Seav - I didn't see that.
Can't make it out with Barcs over the last few days. The SP seems to have gone in entirely the opposite direction to all other banks. Anyone offer an explanation?
Thanks badjob. Interesting your comment re. Natwest. I was only thinking how poor Barcs performance has been in the last couple of days compared to the other UK banks and noticed how Barcs had fallen nearly 1% today, whereas Natwest rose 1.75%. No obvious reason for it that I can see, other than the sentiment point you make. We'll see what next week brings.
I confess Bhavik I don't get charts, but have yet to see one posted on this site that delivers what is predicted. It has been a pretty disappointing couple of days for Barcs and a fall I didn't see coming, after the stellar day on the American markets a couple of days ago. Having reached 1.62, it now seems to be falling back to the low 1.50's (hope I am wrong), rather than kicking on to the chart predicted 1.69. Still I recognise it can be argued that in getting to 1.69 there will be bumps on the road, just as it can be said there will be good days on a fall back to the 1.40's. My take on it is that having done well to climb to 1.60 from a position of around 1.35 during a recession, it is running out of steam. And without forward momentum, investors don't like the doldrums, thus precipitating a fall. Hopefully some good global or economic news can inject some momentum early next week.
To badjob: Entirely agree with you. The dividend cancellation for Covid was a scandal, having gone ex-div. The bank deliberately hiding behind a Govt directive. But I see no reason, given that the losses didn't materialise, why the bank could not then have paid an extraordinary dividend to those holders who were entitled to the dividend in the first place. It was all too convenient for Barcs to hang on to the money. They are only interested in looking after those who run the bank and not those that own it. Even Staley pretty much said he felt embarrassed as to to how long-suffering Barc's shareholders were being let down and promised to rectify the situation with 'progressive dividends' (my ****) - he never did. And the buy-backs - don't get me started. What on earth has been achieved with the £2.5bn so far shelled out? The SP is still more than 20p less than it was when the buy backs began! And it sickens me how the bank points out what it thinks is an impressive Return on Equity rate, when it is based on the current and appallingly depressed SP. Dividend rewards are there for investors - I stress the word investors - the inference being long-term shareholders, some of whom (not me) will have bought in when the SP was nearly £8. Since those times, returns have been nigh on negligible in comparison to the sums they will have invested. It is so evident how difficult it is to shift the SP of this stock northwards and it is entirely down to how the bank has behaved over the last 15-20 years and how it has treated shareholders - it is the company not to trust. The only way they can start repairing the damage they have done is to now put shareholders first, but they have absolutely no intention of doing so.
Yes badjob, it was that I had in mind when writing my post, perhaps I should have better described it as 'stealth' tax.
Since I last posted, it has gone as I predicted and I sold a tranche on last weeks highs and am waiting for an opportunity to buy back. I'll stick my neck out further. I presume the cautious lull we are now experiencing, is down to tomorrows inflation report and Thursday's Autumn statement. I think this might see another 3-5p come off the current SP of £1.56 before the Autumn statement is delivered. Whilst I think there will be an initial bouncing around upon delivery of the Autumn statement, I don't think there will be a reference in it, to a windfall tax on banks and therefore by early next week I believe the Barcs SP will react favourably to the Autumn statement and I am hoping the SP will rise to break the £1.60 mark, with some initial 'bouncing off' at £1.59. So looking to buy back in at around £1.53 before then. Of course and as usual, this could all blow up in my face.
To Rookie1 - I will stick my neck out and say, subject to another bombshell being dropped (Putin, Barclays conduct, unforeseen domestic / global economic issues) I think we will see a reasonable rise in the Barcs SP leading up to the 17th November. If that follows, then I would be looking to sell a tranche on 16th November. The rationale for my thinking is that it is now out there - rising interest rates , worst recession since the great depression, unemployment doubling and so on - but the Barc SP and FTSE pretty much took it in their stride today. But I would expect some retreat / profit taking, before Sunak / Hunt deliver their mini-budget mark 2 on 17th November. I also feel that in the last week or so, the SP has been wanting to move into the £1.50's and out of the £1.40's. If it rises rapidly to £1.55 / £1.57 I will be looking to sell another tranche and buy back if it falls 4/5p. That is my modest strategy at the moment. But obviously none knows, we are all just working on our hunches. And please don't anyone follow my strategy - I have a terrible track record with this stock!
To Seaking1 - That's kind of you to say, though I still would rather be one of those making heaps!. I called it right with Powell & Bailey, but bought my shares back at £1.47 today to bank a £175 profit - which is exactly what I did last week. Small beer compared to my paper losses, but every little helps.
Thanks for sharing your experiences rasls. Across the pond I see that Goldman Sachs has recorded its 9th consecutive day of gains - moving well over 10% in that time! Share price movement only Barclays holders can dream about!
Thanks to 'onlyagame' for their comforting words. Sold a tranche yesterday at £1.51 with a view to buying back around £1.45 - £1.47. But interested to know what the views are as to how Barclays shares are likely to react to Powell's words today and Bailey's tomorrow. Both are expected to raise rate by 0.75, but the markets tell me that is 'baked in' already to the Barcs SP and it is more in what comes out of B&P's mouths in relation to the economic outlook, that will affect the SP. In recent months I have said it has proven good advice to pull out just before they speak and buy back afterwards, as the markets tend to react badly to what they say. And in the US in particular, I feel of late, that Wall Street has been too optimistic in believing Powell will soften his stance. As for Bailey, because the Gov't won't provide its economic outlook until 17th November, I expect him to rein in on his comments,. Equally however, he just can't stop himself from upsetting the markets in some way. So any views as to where the Barcs SP might lie on Friday morning? If sub-£1.45 I might hang on before trying to buy back.
I know exactly how you feel bladerunner. It is getting on for 8 years ago, when I made the biggest mistake of my life and getting involved with Barclays - with my holding then, at an average of around about £2.70 a share and the Barclays chief at the time saying they were looking to double the SP in 3 years. Well they managed to halve it instead! Since then, I have reduced my average to around £2.20, but it has meant increased exposure to a stock I want to get out of altogether. My current situation is that I am compelled to do something, rather than doing nothing. But my current strategy is dangerous. Selling a significant tranche at a 70p a share loss. in the belief that it will fall further and then buy back and bank the profit when it does. Repeat the action when another false rise occurs. But to think I have to bank well over £400 profit in such transactions to reduce my average by just 1 penny is a sobering thought! And the danger is of course that the SP goes the other way and continues to rise which, whilst good for the remainder of my holding, means that the 70p a share loss on the tranche sold is crystallised for good. Not good for my mental health!
Straw poll for tomorrow - Red or Blue? After HSBC today, I'll go red.
Spot on M1k3Y. The board at Barcs won't care two hoots if a windfall tax is brought in. As you say they will justify an increase in bonuses to take profits out of the windfall tax net and the only ones to suffer - as always - will be us, the shareholders.
Cheers Mr A and good evening. A totally unconvincing performance from Truss today and I think markets and the pound will come under immediate pressure first thing Monday morning and so I am thinking Barcs will be hit hard again. I should have sold some more this morning. I think Bailey is going to have to do something to calm the markets as well - but he's hardly your knight in shining armour! I also think they will have to pull the funding report and OBR input forward again from the rescheduled 31 Oct date. But I think the gov't / market relationship has become too politicised now, the markets are scenting blood and I wouldn't be surprised if they force Truss out. Her saving grace might be Hunt, who probably has more credibility and might be able to pull something out of the hat to appease everyone.
If you see a character called Nostradamus posting on here, it'll be me with my new username. Said weeks ago that there was money to be made in selling just before Bailey / Powell open their mouths. Took my own advice and sold a tranche at £1.73 and sure enough the markets tanked when Bailey / Powell spoke. I poured cold water on the optimistic outlook some were giving when the SP was in the £1.60's - saying both the FTSE & Barcs were likely to fall significantly. Said we were heading for sub £1.40 and we did despite some arguing there was support at that line. Said Truss would have to sack Kwarteng and U-turn n the mini-budget- others scoffed at my suggestion. Said there would be wild swings in the last 48 hours before close of play today. I now think Truss is in 'last chance saloon'. If she doesn't calm the markets immediately (and Bailey's got to help) then we are in for an early general Election with Truss out as well. As I said before, I think the markets are scenting blood and I don't think Truss will survive. I won't get too self-satisfied - I am still staring at a near £40k paper loss!