RE: Ezj offer6 Jul 2026 13:30
It is the payoff matrix:
Very little chance of over 690p. Not zero chance, but can be discounted as realistic scenario
690p. Probably now a bit over 50% chance but
that leaves a sizeable possibility of no deal, or some sort of deteriorated 'acceptable offer. The downside for no deal is probably landing in the low 500s share price wise. So you've got a c17% downside risk to holding out, and a c12% upside risk. Your upside is hard limited. Your downside is best guess, but more 'unlimited'. e.g. 690p is a reasonable to assume ceiling, 500p is not a floor.
You may also have to contend with a share price drift down as cold feet/selling out gathers momentum as news go dark over the next 2-4 weeks