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Eloro you really should not post such stuff, in fact it’s a concern you even think these things. The handbrake on Africa’s progress has always been corruption. It’s very very difficult for Western companies and even if you get in a regime change can send you back to the start. I think the worry for Pensana is that now the AWF is sitting on paper losses plus there is no reliable sign the the company is going to get airborne. Their patience will not be unlimited. Plus they must be starting to wonder if they’ve backed the wrong horse. Must be last chance saloon now.
The market has spoken, it looks all over for Pensana. They announce ‘financé and the shares tank. Pretty obvious why. The Angolans will replace Pensana, the sp will now fall sub 10p. And it will be nothing to do with FUD, shorters, Chinese agents and the like. Alkemy will be next.
Wasarunner, good post thanks however The only box management cannot tick is the nickel price and I figure this will become the single most important determinant of the sp. Indonesia’s role and the apparent willingness of western consumers to turn a blind eye to environmental concerns appear to me to be big factors.
The fact the sp is 26p should tell you everything you need to know. This isn’t going to happen. And it has nothing to do with FUD or shorters, China’s every more strident complaints look more ridiculous by the day. I actually think his ramblings are rather sad. Hogsnipe, Tony, Mumbles and several others have accepted what I have been saying for two years. Alkemy posters have yet to see the light. PA is a menace, his silky tongue drags in gullible people, even professionals like M & G fall for it and then nurse their losses. Who were the institutions that participated in that 120p placement? What do they think now?? I genuinely do not believe that anyone has shorted Pensana, the sp has crumbled because the market either does not trust or does not believe PA. And why should it? Nothing he had ever promised, either here or in any of his previous incarnations, had turned out to be true. Fact.
This announcement looks remarkably similar to the August 2021 RNS, which stated “ABGSC will be initiating their detailed due diligence shortly and will look to be in a position to target a bond issuance during Q4 2021”. The company never bothered to inform shareholders what happened to that one. Or for that matter the Great Wall finance plan. So now we have ABSA looking to syndicate a loan. The Angolans have kindly supplied some lipstick but the outcome looks sadly predictable. I guess one also has to take into account the company has a tendency to gild the lily ( I am being very kind here) so there will inevitably be some distance between the RNS and reality.
It’s a stupid comparison. RE oxides hit $200/kg in 2011 and then collapsed as low as $10, give or take. That’s why Lynas shed 90% of their SP. It wasn’t because of some halfwit running round claiming to be the messiah of rare earths who eventually got found out.
You've got to love this. Paul's other venture, Alkemy, forms a subsidiary, Tees Valley Lithium, in Janaury 2022. TVL has a paid up capital of £1.00 and no assets. Except £1.00 cash. Alkemy has recently published its annual report for the year to 31st January 2023. Here is an extract:
"Since TVL's launch in February 2022 we have been extremely busy...we have completed a Class 4 Feasibility Study for TVL's Wilton LHM Refinery demonstrating exceptional project economics, including a pre-tax NPV of £2.8 billion and gross revenues of £49.2 billion."
You do have to smile, I mean the guy is totally and utterly incorrigible. Revenues of only £49.2 billion. Market cap of the group today is £10 million. Get in there China before its too late!
interesting post gp. i have followed creo for more than a decade and i have no doubts at all about the product and the technology. chris han**** is genuinely a genius. the trouble has been that you cannot just put the product on a shop shelf, you have to get consultants on board literally one at a time and offer training as part of the sales package. this is very labour intensive and time consuming. which is also why so much interest is being shown in the relationship with intuitive, where bulk sales could be made and the training problem largely falls away. i think the company made mistakes, it’s headcount is way too high, the acquisitions have been a distraction not an asset. there have been some governance issues too. a non executive director was recruited, placed almost immediately on the directors’ remuneration committee and within six months approved massive cash bonuses for two directors, ostensibly on the grounds that the acquisitions had been such a success and despite the onset of the pandemic. pretty daft in my mind, plus any bonus should have been in shares not cash, with the cash reserved exclusively for its original purposes, product development and working capital. so there have been some bumps in the road, covid very unfortunate when you need access to consultants and hospitals, excessive recruitment (imo) and until recently no sign of a clear sales strategy. having said all that i remain very confident they will prevail and recover the lost ground.
BBD, yes good point, would be useful to get a measurement of the CREO applications, say as a percentage of robotic surgery. Appointment good too, I think what we need to see now is the promised reduction in headcount and a lot more detail re the sales strategy. With almost 300 staff how many are engaged in sales, how are they going to build and accelerate the training programme, it all seems agonisingly slow at the moment. The company has assured the market that the latest raise will be the last needed, it looks pretty marginal to me.
China. The fact remains that if you had heeded my advice (or drivel as you prefer to call it) you would be extremely well off. Imagine if you had sold at 185p! I hope you have had the sense to avoid ALK. Here’s a question for you, not a difficult one, the home page for TVL’s website carries the banner “Tees Valley Lithium is Europe’s largest independent and sustainable lithium hydroxide producer”. Is that a true statement? Does TVL produce any Lithium hydroxide?
BBD. The data I have showed that in Q1 2023 Intuitive revenues were up 14% and combined rivals down 6%, which was how I got to my 90% figure, however you may well be right. I 100% agree with your post, I do sometimes worry that if the Creo suite of products is as good as we are led to believe then why wouldn’t Intuitive snap it up, if for no reason other than to shut competitors out of this avenue?
MO. Creo is partnered with Intuitive. They have a joint development programme. TVL and ALK have nothing. They don’t have a site, they may have identified a bit of land they like, Pilbara has nothing to do with either of them. If I thought I had the same views as you I’d probably shoot myself.
Sundrum. Looks to me like you are admitting a porky pie. Desperate times. Desperate measures.
MO you say a fraction of $1 billion could buy out ALK and TVL. And you are absolutely right. One billionth would take care of TVL, which has assets of £1. A few more billionths would take care of ALK. You want to stop musing!!
ALK owns TVL. TVL was incorporated in 2022 and it has an issued capital of £1.00 and its assets comprise cash of £1.00. So in a sense China you are right, TVL is worth £1.00. Now visit TVl’s website. it claims to be Europe’s leading lithium hydroxide producer. But wait a second. Is that true? No it is not. Right now it has nothing. It might want to be Europe’s leading lithium hydroxide producer but it has no money, it has nothing. Except the £1.00. Misleading isn’t it?
Sundrum. Not aware that M&G and ASWF committed to financing Longonjo, where did you find that? I did see that they were granted the right to participate in future raises, a typical bit of Pensana speak, with pre-emotion rights they can do that anyhow. For what it’s worth I don’t believe that there will be any finance, not in June or July. Share price indicating a negative outcome, my guess is we are heading for the 15 to 20p range. Cash position must be desperate again.
We know that Creo is partnered with Intuitive, which has sewn up over 90% of the world surgical robotics market. Intuitive has a market cap of $115 billion and trades on a P/E ratio of around 100. Incredible numbers. It would seem that the Creo suite of instruments offers Intuitive genuine and real advantages, certainly this is what Creo itself is saying. That being the case it would be no surprise if Intuitive took out Creo, particularly given the opportunity to do so at maybe half Creo’s peak valuation. Or looking at it another way it is almost a concern that they haven’t!