Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Why worry about the price from week to week? The long term story here could be fantastic. They produced 6500t of copper of which they got 60%, so the share price is where it is off the back of 4000t of sold copper attributed to the company. If production goes to plan this year (virtually nailed on) they will get 60% of 10000t -> 6000t If the ownership issue is sorted out and they get it all, then 10000t will be theirs. And then they will build a second plant and within 12 months be capable of producing 20000t of copper. So it isn't unrealistic to expect copper production to go from 4000t -> 20000t in the next 3 years. Somehow I think the share price would do rather well...
Perhaps the fact that the group has some debt is weighing down the valuation a little, but most likely it's just a relatively unknown stock. I had never heard of it until I saw the Edison note a few months ago and the quality shone out for me, so I invested. Going forward I think the strength of Affinity and eCar pretty much guarantee similar results to these for the next 2 years. At some point it should rerate but one can never predict when. The sells this morning reflect that some bought in hoping for a results spike an have already run out of patience. Hopefully some more serious buyers will pick up on this over the coming months - continued growth from Affinity is the near term key to this IMO.
Great set of numbers. The most exciting thing is that the Personal Lines Policy is up 84%. This includes the new Affinnity brand which was only established in July. Affinity looks like it could drive the company forward single handed, and it has barely got going.
Combining those figures (which I repeat may be a bit hokey and outdated from the FT - look at Jupiter, either percentage or total shares held is wrong) ... with the known major holdings, it does suggest that circa 80% of shares are held by institutions with 1% or above. I think this share should motor this year so long as construction proceeds as expected. Port revenues will probably start to roll in early next year but we should move in anticipation well before then. Should be an interesting journey.
According to the FT website (which is often a bit out of date), the following institutions have holdings here between 1-3%: Jupiter Asset Management Ltd. as of 31 Dec 2012 997.36k 2.82% Investec Asset Management Ltd. as of 31 Mar 2012 1.19m 2.70% Norges Bank Investment Management as of 31 Dec 2012 1.11m 2.53% Threadneedle Asset Management Ltd. as of 30 Nov 2012 877.50k 1.99% Franklin Templeton Fund Management Ltd. as of 31 Dec 2012 810.00k 1.14% Henderson Global Investors Ltd. as of 31 Jan 2013 489.29k 1.11%
Edison Research http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/researchreports/CAML080413update.pdf Minesite article (requires free site registration) http://www.minesite.com/news/central-asia-metals-has-already-returned-27-per-cent-of-the-money-it-raised-at-ipo-and-it-still-has-25-years-of-profitable-operations-ahead-of-it These were also mentioned in the Investors Chronicle - rated a hold at 120p, but as you can see from above links, brokers are forecasting 180-240p if they get 100% ownership of the project. Either way, this company is looking like a nice cash cow for a quarter of a century. No point getting hung up on monthly price movements. Also in the notes above, they are forecasting 1650 tonnes production for the current month, so that 10000 t/yr target looks like it will be hit.
Some shares are a dog, this one is a caml :-) If they can keep producing 10,000t of copper a year on that margin for 25 years there will be a very healthy dividend stream here.
I bought in here recently after only becoming aware of this company a few weeks ago, so the recent fall in price was a boon for me. I finally jumped in at 120p which I think will turn out to be close to the bottom of the current range. 4 reasons to invest: 1) Rapidly increasing and profitable production 2) Possible "gold swan" event if remaining 40% of Kounrad is purchased 3) Management support share price with buybacks 4) Management return share of profits to shareholders through dividend A very rare AIM beastie!
In line now?
Port investments tend to do very well. I remember for years I was waiting for an entry point in ABP (Associated British Ports) and it never happened - got bought up and taken off the market. Getting in nice and early for this one.
This might get more support with a sustainable dividend. I thought the key positiive point to take from the rsults was that significant investment is ongoing to generate the regular premium business in various parts of the world. Over the next few years, the required investment should fall and the profits, at high margin, should start to roll in. On the negative side, some of that increase may be counteracted by falls in single premium business and possible litigation payments. I suspect the share price will remain depressed to some extent whilst the legal actions are in the background, and it seems there will be no resolution for at least a year. So long as it can keep paying out at 8p or better, it remains in the top end of yielders and the high margins and increasing cash inflow should keep it comfortably profitable.
Difficult to ignore the yield on this one so I bought some more. There is a slight cloud hanging over this from a court case as reported in various RNS, which is probably partly responsible for the low price, but it still looks way oversold. HSD, CSN and CIFU have all been in the 10-15% dividend category the last few months and each looks relatively safe. Results here later in the month....
The gold side is miniscule and may be spun off on the TSX should the resource justify such a move - this will be done to make HZM a pure nickel play. They have a project in the top quartile for size and grade, and it will be worth a fair bit of money in time. Probably another 2 or 3 years to go before the BFS is completed and by then the nickel market should look better and hopefully Greece will not only have dropped out of the the Euro, but planet Earth as well :-)
It's a mystery. The biggest influence on the ENK shareprice in the past has been trees!
It's just people cashing in on a rapid rise, and others panicking as the profit starts to disappear. See it all the time on AIM. But soon the story will be different. The metallurgical test results and PEA in April will wake up institutional investors to the true value of this project, and when they do we will not be so much steered by small time holders locking in profits. The company intends to market itself in Canada with the completed PEA. The Canadians understand the resource sector well - this will rerate permanently during the year so long as the project figures stack up. My strategy is simply to hold until the BFS is completed in 2014. I am expecting minimum 50p. Happy to wait.
The last broker valuation from 2011 put this at 36p - 32 for the nickel and 4 for the gold, based on 76Mt of nickel. So with this upgrade fair value is presumably in the 45 - 50p range. Last year the share got within 15 - 20% of the broker target. Sentiment is not quite so good in 2012 of course but it shows where this should be if the market takes a more positive view on nickel projects. The upcoming PEA and later the PFS should add further value, and there are gold drilling results from Falcao expected within the next 4 weeks.
N Brown is mainly JD Williams which in turn runs a whole set of catalogues aimed at different groups, mainly the older larger lady, but also the younger ones via "Simply Be" and they've bought High and Mighty as well to cater for tall freaks. There used to be a company policy to keep the brands separate so that customers didn't twig it was all part of the same group - "Heather Valley", "Ambrose Wilson" etc - I think they once had about 20 catalogues which may have been a world record for a single company!
I could tell you some stories about this company. I wouldn't want to suggest the customers are at the older end of the scale, but we once had a woman ring up trying to request an item from the 1961 Winter Catalogue. They couldn't understand why it was no longer available! Then there was the guy who ordered a collapsible walking stick, and we delivered a collapsible greenhouse. He lived halfway up a block of flats as well - and the postie had to carry it up there! Happy days...