Member Info for Tenapenny

Almost non-existent some days...a few thousand pounds and a handful of trades.

I just sold some one of my more expensively bought chunks of Cairn at 220.8 and bought into Tullow at 52.1 for a ratio of 4.19.

All part of life's gamble.

In my tiny mind this derisks me a bit with a potential 10% gain (4.19/3.8).

Hope you are right Banbury.

What a terrible irony and further misery if long term holders are hit with a retrospective* tax after just receiving a rebate on a retrospective tax case from 7 years ago.

I feel like there are parallels between the UK and Indian governments here.

* ok it might not technically be retrospective if it is on next quarter earnings but it is out of the blue and on a whim

Thanks Londoner, apologies for being misleadingly overoptimistic with my numbers. So more like $220 million from their share of Egyptian liquids then before operating costs.

And I haven't even included Egyptian gas.

From the trading statement: "We expect to deliver production within the previously stated guidance range of 37,000 - 43,000 boepd for 2022, with expected capital and operating cost guidance for Egypt also unchanged. We anticipate being towards the upper end of previously guided liquids percentage of production (35-40%)."

So from Egypt, a liquids range of about 13-17k boepd. At 100 dollars a barrel that is $470 million to $630 million revenue per year. Operating costs are low so a couple of hundred million dollars profit?

Then throw in the contingent payments from north sea and Senegal of well over £100 million?

So annual profit this year of £300 million on a £600 million capex company?

There has been a lot of extremely detailed and knowledgeable analysis on here (and on the advfn forum as well) by people much more astute than me.

In my naive and basic analysis I am holding and waiting until a hopeful re-rate when the numbers show that this company currently valued at approximately £600 million is making an annual profit of approximately 50% of that. Are these numbers not mind boggling?

Quite a long piece on Calnex here

https://www.scotsman.com/business/west-lothian-tech-firm-calnex-seals-ps35m-acquisition-amid-record-order-book-3650305

Royal Mail is currently being played down again. I reckon it will be over 5 quid again within a year (3.30 now). I doubled my money on Royal Mail during Covid and I am aiming to repeat or come close again.

Rolls Royce as the comment above. My guess is that I will spike above at least 1.40 a couple of times before Christmas from a pound today.

I don't want to hold until Q3 for only 2% extra but I am wondering if it is worth waiting a couple of weeks in case of a rival bid, perhaps sell half my holding and hedge my bets.

Darren, a bidding war would be exciting. Although I am more than content with the >100% increase in my holding I only started buying in 2020. This has been by far my luckiest investment to date.

Current share price is £2.20 which is about $2.90 at 1.3 dollars to the pound.

If the TO process buys and cancels $500 million shares at $2.90 then approx 170 million shares out of 495 million will be cancelled which is almost exactly a third of the current shares.

Does this mean that the share post TO will be approx the current £1 billion caped divided by 330 million shares which is very roughly 3 quid?

- In which case why would you take up the TO?
- Maybe the company is not worth 1 billion?
- this is not like a normal special dividend where an has asset has been sold and the company reduces by a commensurate amount. The $billion from the Indians was not fully costed in my opinion.

Sorry just embarrassed myself. 40 million pounds worth.

Good spot. Roughly 87 million pounds worth.

...Is that the price is held down at around £2.15 until 30th March when I elect not to take up the offer while everyone in the know tenders at +5%. Then miraculously the price goes up to £2.70 or whatever for the 5 day average period and those in the know get that plus 5%. Yes i could still sell on the open market at £2.70 or whatever during the 5 day period but I will have been robbed out of 5% of £2.70 in my paranoid scenario.

I just bought another big chunk (for me!) at 2.11

Currently RR is the 5th highest faller on the FTSE 350. The top 4 are all Russian or Ukrainian miners which is completely understandable. I don't really understand RR being back under a pound despite your valid points above, so I have already bought two chunks this morning.

Polymetal International plc
Ferrexpo plc
Evraz plc
Petropavlovsk plc
Rolls Royce Holdings Plc

Come on India, seize the moment and pay up this week to try and at least pretend to make it look like you are one of the good guys.

I had 2 auto sells go through at 434 this morning. One was set at 414 so it could have been worse. Looking to buy back in on any dip.

I have very much have the fear of missing out but you never know what Mr Putin might do etc.

https://www.zeebiz.com/companies/news-uk-based-vodafone-plc-to-get-rs-4900-crore-from-government-of-india-in-retrospective-tax-case-178085

This claims that Vodafone will receive their refundable tax from Government of India within 7 days.