Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Note is dated 25th July (logged in again)
I received the email from WHI this morning...
....which we believe to be conservative against the expected demand backdrop. Strategic options: Europa has announced that it is searching for other opportunities to add to its portfolio to progress alongside Toral. The clearest risk we see is continued access to the capital markets, in common with other junior developer peers. The project, as we understand it, stacks up and has significant potential, but Europa will need to raise further capital to get it to an investment decision.
We see fair value in Europa at 11.7p/sh on an SOTP basis using a DCF (10% discount rate) for the Toral project with allowance for corporate costs and net cash. This is conservatively priced for the economics that Europa can demonstrate and with its current market valuation much lower than similar junior developers in Europe – some of which don’t have the advantages we see in Toral.
The Toral zinc-lead project in Spain; underappreciated on all metrics Europa Metals (Europa) is advancing the Toral zinc-lead-silver project in NW Spain. Toral is one of the largest undeveloped zinc+lead resources in Europe and has high grades compared with many of its peers. The deposit also benefits from its location in a modern democracy with access to good levels of infrastructure (road, rail and power). The location in León in Spain is also an advantage; it is a mining-friendly jurisdiction, which permits mining and has to feed a large industrial complex, including one of the world’s largest zinc smelters at San Juan de Nieva. Europa has advanced the project significantly in the past few years and is designing its process flow sheet to incorporate the optionality of XRT sorting to decrease mass by half into the recovery section of the plant. This has positive capital, operating and resource implications, including the potential to add currently subeconomic resources into a mining plan, bring forward production and extend mine life. Europa appears severely undervalued against its development peers and against our conservative DCF analysis. We initiate with a fair value of 11.7p/sh but see multiple upsides against this as Europa continues to derisk the project.
The Toral deposit is hosted on a regional scale contact between a thick limestone sequence and an overlying phyllite/slate. Mineralisation remains, open at depth and along strike. Europa has grown Toral by 40% to a 20Mt JORC (2012) indicated and inferred resource with an estimated zinc equivalent grade of 6.3% (ZnEq – zinc + lead + silver).
A preliminary economic assessment (PEA) shows significant returns: Financial results of our DCF show an NPV10% of $62m and an IRR of 19%, using WHI estimates after expected inflation of capex to $90m (EUZe $79m) and opex of $70/t ($58/t) over a 12-year life of mine. The Toral plan is simple with a bulk mining underground method before differential flotation to produce two separate concentrates: zinc and a lead-silver concentrate. The polymetallic nature of Toral acts as a natural hedge and the revenue mix protects the Toral economics, in our view.
We see clear upsides: Europa has a clear strategy to further derisk technical aspects of Toral, including growing and upgrading the MRE, updating geotechnical studies, and completing advanced economic studies, as well as fully incorporating XRT sorting into the process route, which could be a game changer for the project.
Robust metal price environment: We expect zinc to remain a strong market over the course of the decade, as high prices are required to incentivise the new production necessary to fulfil expected demand – we use a long-term zinc price of $1.25/lb (compared with $1.42/lb currently). We also remain bullish for lead and silver over the course of the expected Toral mine life; we use long-term prices for lead and silver of $1.00/lb and $25/oz ($0.90/lb and $19.2/oz) in our analysis..
BB - certainly there is a link...
Only one more working week of July... Casa cash incoming... and paperwork in progress.
Even the PR consultant opted for shares (nice 1.2m earner!)
Not long now. Still time for a top-up.
Feedback from NvS (I asked the same question) was that both streams are running in parallel, with the second 90-day window being there in reserve... they don't have to announce end of DD before moving into a signature phase.
HL (and ii) value your portfolio on the latest BID price... Percentage change is just on the last trade, so it varies... it currently shows 9.23% (live feed) as the last trade was for 3.277...
Interesting consolidation on L2 though in the last hour. About time, and all that...
I don't know enough about spread betting but do people "bet" on the closing price trends over a period? I mean, this would be blatant manipulation, but it would be a good reason to throw in an underpriced sell... obviously untraceable and not on behalf of a spread betting company, of course...
That's always been my feeling with AIM when the spread betting companies take interest... with such lack of regulation, it would be very tempting to make sure the dice always fall in one's favour, so to speak.
Topped up again yesterday at 3.299. ISA allowance now exhausted. Tick tock...
Predicting a share price on a specific date is clearly a stab in the dark… however we have been given definitive dates of certain key activities.
Not going to repeat them as they are widely known.
If the SP doesn't react, there is likely to be another market-impacting reason (E.g., war and global economic concerns) which will hopefully then correct itself. If it does, then all is good.
One thing is sure… time will tell. And I don’t think it will be long this time.
Hi Sheds - ok, got you, now. I thought delayed trades retained their actual execution date, but I guess not.
Intriguing.
At what point does the company have to explain unexpected trading patterns. I don't think anyone can call last week's rally BAU!
Crossing fingers...
T
Someone getting out after last week's lack of news...
Or a buyer getting a bargain...
Will we ever know!?!
Very odd... 400k at the Bid price one would think is an obvious sell.... shouldn't need an algorithm to work that one out. Except it's marked as UNKNOWN....
Highside - I’d read that too. That said, there is a push towards sourcing metals closer to home… as well as economic regeneration. Perhaps it’s the silver that makes this more attractive?!
Having said that, British Bulls now has it as a buy…
https://www.britishbulls.com/m/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=EUZ.L
Miln - I agree pump and dumps usually go back down on the same day… but if this really was such positive news, I think we would have kept going and they might have to have released a statement (the twitter posters were tagging #LtdEuropa so they must have seen). HotAndColdStocks posts were just a little overtly rampy. Would be amazing if true. And about time!
We shall find out soon, I guess.
A lot of the Twitter posts just read like the usual pump and dump. Tweet after tweet urging people to get in quick. For me, that’s dampened it totally.
Happy to see someone next week, but if a “real” JV was looming, we wouldn’t be closing 10% up.
MM - is there a link for the Telegram group? Thanks T
Anyone going to go to this? Didn't see any invitation to join online or in person....
Someone couldn't wait, seemingly!