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Ajax looks like it’s getting very close to the bottom now. The chart has been dragged right back from the April spike around 8p–9p to around 4.5p, with the market cap now only about £5.4m. That’s a big pullback, but nothing fundamental has really changed to justify that sort of drop. It looks more like weak holders, low liquidity and the usual AQSE spread making the fall look worse than it is. The key point is that the valuation is now getting close to cash-in-bank territory, which means the market is barely giving any value to the wider portfolio.

Technically it looks oversold and washed out, which is often how these bottoms form before the bounce. The April excitement has fully unwound, sellers look like they’ve largely had their go, and a move back through 5p would already start to improve the setup. After that, 6p–6.5p looks like the obvious recovery zone if buyers return. With Macacha, Paguanta, Eureka, Reveille uranium exposure and the Oslo listing angle still all in play, the share price looks disconnected from the asset base now. Fundamentals haven’t gone backwards, only the share price has, and from this level a bounce wouldn’t be surprising at all.

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Instead, they’ve structured it properly by bringing in Ajax, who have actual mining credentials and backing from Appian. That’s not a small detail, that’s exactly the kind of partner you’d expect if the intention is to build something credible rather than just hold licences.

The spin-out itself is also being misunderstood. Zenith isn’t just giving this away – they’re rolling the asset into Reveille, getting reimbursed in shares for the costs already incurred (£350k), and coming in as a cornerstone investor alongside Ajax. They start with 25%, add shares for the historical spend, and have already stated they’ll invest again at IPO, so the intention is clearly to remain the dominant exposure holder. The 29.9% cap is just a listing rule, not a value ceiling. Owning a smaller percentage of something that is properly valued in a specialist uranium market is very different from owning 100% of something the market doesn’t price correctly. Uranium companies are typically valued much higher on the right exchanges, and even small peers are sitting around the $50m mark. That gives some context to the upside potential if this is executed properly.

What matters is where this gets valued. Uranium assets are typically not priced properly inside mixed energy companies, but they are on specialist markets. Even early-stage uranium vehicles with historic resources get valuations that are multiples of what you’d expect elsewhere. So the real question isn’t “why reduce the percentage”, it’s “what does that percentage sit inside once listed”.

And the asset itself isn’t some greenfield punt either. These are Italy’s two largest known uranium deposits with extensive historic work already done – underground development, tens of thousands of metres of drilling, defined resources and existing access. That’s a very different starting point compared to a lot of early-stage explorers. On top of that you’ve got the broader shift in Italy and Europe back towards nuclear, plus the whole energy security angle post-Ukraine, which gives the project a much stronger macro backdrop than it would have had a few years ago.

At the same time, people seem to be ignoring what’s happening elsewhere in the business. The solar side is actually close to monetisation, with Italian projects moving towards sale, which could represent the first real capital event from that division. That’s near-term and tangible, not just long-term upside.

Someone sent me a post on the zenith forums on the reveille deal which has some details in it

The key point is the underlying asset. The Lombardy Project represents Italy’s largest known uranium resource base, with historical estimates equivalent to roughly 15 million lbs of uranium across Novazza and Val Vedello. At a uranium price of around $86/lb, that implies a potential in-ground value in excess of $1.2 billion before any exploration upside or resource upgrades.

Where some confusion is coming in is around the £200k investments by Zenith and Ajax for 25% each. This is not a valuation of the uranium assets. The RNS is clear that this capital is being used to fund the IPO process and establish Reveille as a listed vehicle. In other words, this is setup capital, not asset pricing.

The real valuation event will come at IPO and, more importantly, in the months that follow once the market begins to properly price the assets based on updated exploration, modern resource definitions, and uranium market sentiment. Early-stage listings are often conservative by design; the upside is realised as the story develops.

Another important point that shouldn’t be overlooked is that Zenith is not exiting the asset — it is restructuring ownership. Zenith will not only retain a significant equity stake but will also be reimbursed £350k in shares at IPO price for costs already incurred. The company has also indicated it may invest further at IPO, reinforcing its position as a major shareholder.

Strategically, this actually makes a lot of sense. Zenith is an energy company, not a mining developer. Spinning the asset into a dedicated, Europe-focused vehicle with a clear mining and exploration mandate creates a much cleaner story for the market. It also allows the uranium assets to be valued on their own merits rather than being buried inside a broader oil and gas business.

Yes, the 25/25 structure with Ajax raises questions, particularly given Zenith originally held the asset. But if Ajax is effectively providing operational execution, public market experience (via Aquis), and driving the listing process, then there is a logic to sharing equity at this stage — especially if it accelerates development and unlocks value faster.

Zenith were always going to need a partner in the mining industry and at least this way we have gone one that we can trust. Ippolito is going to be managing the project on behalf of Ajax and Zenith and at least we know he is not going to screw over his dad (and therefor us as Zenith shareholders).

The bigger picture here is what matters. Europe is actively reassessing nuclear as part of its long-term energy strategy, and Italy itself is moving back towards nuclear generation. That macro backdrop, combined with existing underground infrastructure and historical exploration, puts these assets in a far stronger position than a typical greenfield project.

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