market moves/mechanics22 Jul 2018 19:24
so where are we after Friday's events and are there any 'trading' aspects to be considered in the sp moves over the past couple of weeks and possibly going forward ?
One important factor that many are conscious of is that shares don't always go up or down simply on the number of buys or sells (a popular misconception) there can often be other factors at play particularly in between news releases, news (good/bad or even incorrect (!) news changes things, as we know)
The overiding view and suggestion from those closer to the trading desk was that after a meteoric rise from around 15p to 33p a short was in play ahead of any expected news, shorts of this size don't guess ime they are very aware of any upcoming news and often begin to close out steadily (over days or a week or two) before potential news arrives or the sp reaches a level that provides a great entry level and buying begins, So to avoid a spike and ensure they don't lose profits they will roll the trades back in gradually. The trading patterns of bock trades, that appeared to trade against any buying daily and a drop from 30p to 18p over such a short time frame with the position of the mm's being of note (Sing in particular ) all suggested the short was in play and as we neared the end of last week it started to gradually close out from 18p, the sp dis start to show signs of rising quickly wednesday 21.5p (20% up from 18p !) maybe a little quick if you have £150k+ to buy back, maybe, who knows ?
Co incidently and I'm no conspiracy theorist, (but always pays to keep an open mind on Aim and when large money is at stake) we had the re run of the old ( approx a year or more old from memory) bbc news story focused on SYM who were given little or no notice as stated and the story was out, incorrect, mis leading, factually incorrect unsubtantiated evidence from a lay person as it turns out (not an expert qualified person) as stated in the following days RNS from SYM.
So that's an unfortunate co incidence or not depending on your position or view, anyway that's what happened, and in reality nothing has materially changed except importantly the share price dropped further on the day from 18p to 15p. A paper loss for many, a real loss for those who sold their holding who were in higher and on the face of it you'd imagine a 27% drop saw a huge sell off take place, you'd imagine .
The figures printed on LSE are never entirely accurate due to the mid price trades, however, it does provide a decent guide to what actually happened on Friday regarding buys v sells and if you look at the trades declared it provides an interesting read .... Trades 424 - Sold 1,992,840 and wait for it...... Buys 4,414,727
Has the short closed out in the storm ? The volume of buys was greater than sells, and the sp did not rise against this buying volume, interesting trading mechanics on a day that suggested a sell off but in reality was not what it appeared. Interesting week ahead ;-)