Investors Chronicle ...target price 100p..let's remind ourselves30 Oct 2020 08:24
what we have here,
The modest rating of Aim-traded Pelatro (PTRO:41.5p), is completely at odds with the guidance given by the directors at the half-year results. PTRO uses 'big data' analytics to reveal patterns, trends, associations and behavioural traits of subscribers. In turn, this insight enables telecom operators to monetise their data, boost average revenue per user and increase their share of subscriber spend. Adopting a more customer-centric approach to marketing also reduces churn rates.
In the first half, underlying cash profit would have been flat at $0.8m (£0.6m) excluding an adjustment of $0.15m on deferred consideration liability. Revenue was 16 per cent lower at $2.3m, but this reflected the non-recurrence of $0.25m-worth of consulting work and was a robust result given Covid-19-related delays to new contracts. More importantly, the current order book supports revenue of $5m for the full year, but this excludes a newly signed five-year contract worth $1.5m.
Moreover, managing director Subash Menon points out that $4m of the 2020 pipeline of $8m is from existing telco customers for various new modules and products, such as cross-selling opportunities where Pelatro is the only contender. These projects have a high probability of being signed off. Mr Menon also adds that “their businesses, while impacted to some extent due to Covid-19, are quite resilient due to the higher level of usage of data by their consumers. Most have moved online as have educational institutions and a variety of other activities. This has resulted in considerable increase in data consumption, leading to higher revenue from data products offered by telcos”. This dynamic can only be positive for converting Pelatro’s total bid pipeline of $15m over the next 12 months.
At the same time, the board’s strategic move to generate a higher level of recurring licence fee income is improving the quality of Pelatro’s revenue stream. In the first half, about 82 per cent of software and managed service revenue was repeat business. A £2.1m placing over the summer is being used to strengthen the sales team and fund working capital for the managed services operation. In turn, this is enabling the company to tender for larger contracts.
House broker Cenkos is maintaining forecasts that point towards 2020 revenue increasing by 10 per cent to $7.4m to deliver flat cash profit of $3m (£2.3m). Deduct forecast year-end net cash of $3.4m (£2.6m) from Pelatro’s market capitalisation of £15.5m, and its enterprise valuation equates to less than six times cash profit. That’s hardly an exacting rating for a company boasting a bumper bid pipeline and one that now processes data for 19 telecom operator clients around the world with more than 800m subscribers. After I last suggested buying the shares at 50.5p the price subsequently rallied by almost 50& to 73.75p before succumbing to profit taking . I feel that a similar rally could be on the cards, making this a repeat buying opportu