The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I would say management's actions are a bit more influential on buyers and the share price, than posters who look to point out why the professional market has valued the company such π€π
Something that dangerous rampers/ramping neglect to comment on.
Is this the low point potentially yes, but if Israel is forced to expand the conflict, if the onshore is a duster, if there are poor flow rates offshore (has any one read the CPR, the farm in operators obviously have, if the company continues to spend on the other pillars with out income then NO.
ALL imo, DYOR on company cash flow, and if you feel you can trust management?
This company share price will ONLY rerate once the market sees less RISK. Too many continue to be in denial.
As before I sincerely hope that Covalis Capital LLP ARE NOT exiting, it could be other private investors that bought in early but automated sells look to be mm or an ii?
Cheers GP,
I wish I had been/was very very wrong π.
Been intresting to see who is exiting, we have SO many shares owned by private investors it might, I hope, NOT one of the two 6% ers.
Askar Alshinbayev bought 6.190000% or 59,676,544 shares via Hong Kong company
And
Covalis Capital LLP 6.24% or 66,815,976 shares
SO if either drops APPROX. 3% it would require a TR-1
Not sure if anyone has been keeping a running total over the sales since farm in RNS...
OR If anyone has access to software that can encompass the period?
Reference: https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/1.html
"reaches, exceeds or falls below 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 10% and each 1% threshold thereafter up to 100% (or in the case of a non-UK issuer on the basis of thresholds at 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 50% and 75%) as a result of an acquisition or disposal of shares or financial instruments falling within DTR 5.3.1 R;
Yes let's continue to keep the dream alive π
Rgds Sft
On a slightly positive note: No discernable shorters have stepped in.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GG00B2R9PM06/
Rgds Sft
Hey GP,
Use to follow Simple Wall St reports and they had placed fair value at over Β£3 per share! Not sure how they came to that analysis but it's now at:
Below Fair Value: CHAR (Β£0.09) is trading below our estimate of fair value (Β£1.03).......quite a fall!
No matter what the consistent positive posters have said about the appointed partner and the farm in terms. They have as usual been very very wrong, despite their attempts to malign those that consistantly raise concerns on financing and management choices AND NO I could not get NOW out as I did NOT think the farm in partnership was going to be this poor. I would have, if it had hit even my average, due to my consistent raised concerns over AP and HIS BoDs.
The market see real risk in the operator selection (significantly compounded by the obviously unforseen Israeli/ Palistine/ Middle East turmoil, not management fault, but as ALWAYS another poor decision by management to risk vs speculation), the re introduction of offshore doubt due to the lack of flow test (as before did we get to see the full CPR's report, as the farmee's would have, gives us now an indication on the protracted farm in process THAT also depleted cash runway, due to the time involved).
The fund raise, that included FEED, was further waste.
Note: where do Schlumberger and SS7 stand on avaiability, cost, where does contacted personnel and equipment procurement stand on time scales???????
Chariots financial security, compounded even more than expected, due to the very limited free carry is (as I had suspected) going to totally depend on the onshore gamble to keep liquid. What if onshore is a duster? What are the time lines to get to production?
Additionally the markets give nil value to Chariots other "pillars" they only see it has further financial unknowns (read risk)...as always what do the BODs actual project as returns or costs in these areas.
Management are solely responsible for where we find ourselves due to SO many very poor and wrong financial decisions.
Remember if you could invest $20million and get a return of $500,000 /750,000 per annum (+ include expenses) that not a bad return????
Rgds Sft
Seems we have a twin in the USA who really do have a renewables arm
https://chariotenergy.com/blog/chariot-energy-signs-new-office-lease/
Interesting reading about them and the US team
Wonder if I should've bought some of their shares π
Hi B4Now,
I agree the probability is very very low and for the reasons you and I state.
As ever market confidence will only get restored in Chariot once the can demonstrate an income, fiscal control and (as per my ususal) fiscal surety.
AP does have skin in the game but, due to those investments positioned himself into a lucrative position within the company (just one of his many revenue streams).
The markets risk analysis on the company and the BODs mananagment of the company puts us where we are.
Let's see what 2024 brings, I will sit in hope on fiscal prudence and clarity (not surprises) from the Chariot Energy Management.
GLA
I never thought I would be hoping for an acquisition, but I am ALL in favour of such now.
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/mergers-and-acquisitions-blockbuster-oil-gas-market-consolidation-moves-in-2023/?utm_source=offshoreenergytoday&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_2024-01-02
You have to ask does Chariot have enough (existing technology (hydrogen or renewable), existing renewable (wind/solar) acreage or gas production for any large operator company that they could not aquire or invest in by purchasing elsewhere?
Certainly not yet, but IF the onshore pans out and get to producing, IF the Offshore flow test is as expected and we get the extra cash (still imo needed to get ONshore to production), IF management actually outline a clear plan for either a renewable and or hydrogen path to commercial returns, IF the financial package for that is secured / proven, then yes.
Looking forward to the BOD's proving ALL the above, after all, great reasurrance from AP who on the webcast told us he attended COP 24 and was "surprised at how well Chariot is aligned with what was discussed there"
He was SURPRISED! π that tells us a wee story in itself π
Rgds Sft
Ps Wonder why they decided NOT to flow test when Stena were out on the exploration I.e. decided to cut the programme early? Budget again most likely, we are paying for that call now.
I then wonder what comments were made in the CPR on that decision ( there must have been some comment) and did that have any affect on the farm out process? IMO YES!
General market confidence in BoDs was low and is now VERY LOW.
That they are not (ever) issuing clear financial assurances or real clear plans (2x other pillars) leaves the market increasing the risk and have adjusted the SP accordingly.
As I have been saying all along, my initial thoughts on the onshore being kept seperate was proven true in the end.
There is no rush on the seller losts of time to next fall (faol of onshore or fund for development) , they start to buy once we have hit the new low re-rate: the next planned share placement price. Then buy back in nice an slowly. IMO still the same insiders making money on this, salary, share bonus and your trading company earning you even more cash π.
I could be wrong but we will know soon enough: once a 3% threshold has been breached. If its not a 6% jumping ship its definitely our regular insider π€΄IMO.
Sft
That should help send us back to the 10p target (new share placement price range).
The markets really respect the CHAR management teams clear, considered, forward and finance detailed company path, every RNS slowly enhances our SP and finances.
Even AP's COP 28 visit comments were a revelation: "He was "surprised" at how well they are strategically placed".
Thank goodness we negotiated a free carry, they can go on a spending spree now π
Not all bad
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GG00B2R9PM06/
Hey GP, I listened to the Webinar and the wording ( As I recollect it) was, that they were funded for the onshore to production at 3million per well and I think it went they do not "expect" to do another "significant" raise. I just do not belive them.
I will have to go back and scrutinise the last up date to cross check burn rate....I even think approx +$900k went on a category called "good will".
I checked the SP price at 0900 today, saw the drop and went bugger, we have had another renewables or hydrogen investment RNS π.
I just feel the market does not trust the boards financial direction and that lack of flow testing is coming back to bite them big style?? It's reexposed risk and doubt. IMHO.
Rockhopper got around 200milion cash off Permier oil for a sea lion farm in, paid a lot back due to poor contract on having to also pay for 2 years of FEED costs, squandered the rest and have now have a loan also (similar repayment deal as us) with their (Premier taken out by creditors, absorbed by Harbour energy qho dropped project, then passed sealion on) to new partners Navistas petroleum (also Israeli)
Different and bigger project mind.
Nothing nice going to be happening for 6months now., then it's a nail bite on onshore exploration results.
So I am done here for a while now. Pointless.
Good luck, been an education....again π
TTFN
Very best Sft
Hey GP,
1. The RNS / Webinar confirmed that the onshore "venture" is going to be a personal CHAR play.
We have been informed that they expect to be fully funded to production, if of course we find commercially viable gas, I do not belive that we have enough.
2. Was the lack of flow testing the Anchois wells of concern to prospective farm in partners, I belive it was. We are going back to do what we should have done, whilst there. It was a mistake reading between the words and partnering (maybe????, not a driller, but I sense there MAY have been doubt created???
3. The farm in deal: I still wonder what the last paragraph means I.e. " Energean's carry of Chariot's costs is non-recourse, and has a coupon of 7% over the one year Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), with the carry including interest repayable from 50% of Chariot's future net sales revenues from the Lixus licence"
My understanding of a farm in is that the project costs are paid for by the farminee, for the % of the asset we are giving to them not that we pay them back from 50% of our profits? May be I am wrong on this, but I do not think so??????
4. Back to burn rates and cash flow to get to FID, we are getting 10 million for our exploration completed to date.
2nd December 2021 CHAR undertook the risk and share placed $11milion for re-entering Anchois 2 exploration/ conformation AND Finalise ( STILL NOT FINALISED) negotiations of gas sales agreements and financing to unlock Final Investment Decision on Anchois AND FOR pursuing the other pillars.
Then share placing to raise $24million RNS 18th of May 2022 to quote
"Advance the engineering and design of the Anchois Gas Development, including FEED project, project financing, gas sales and updated reserves report, to reach FID (YES FID, but now we have to flow test before); and Progress renewable power pipeline, strategic partnering and new venture opportunities.
Then obviously the last raise for (imo) to keep the lights on (cash runway) and do exploration not FEED OR procurement of build.
In summary, it as feared the RNS revealed that we are lacking cash, and have to prove flow rates AND be successful with onshore exploration we have been rerated again, next raise...could it be 10p or 12p. That's probably how the markets see it.
I have had my choices made for me, I can not get out shares and I am not putting more in to keep averaging down...just going have to back draw this investment and hope.
GLA
Rgds Sft
1. Who had heard of Energean's before today, another finance centric player rather than a proven operator.
Do they have the funds for this or do they have to raise capital?
Make you wonder all that dilution as we ran with FEED Costs and still only got 30%
2. We get 25million to keep the lights on until gas production, will that be enough? NO!
3. Does this mean the onshore is seperate?
4. If onshore is seperate I.e. Char management will be operators, what will be total costs to production
5. I must be reading this wrong can some one clarify the wording at the end of the RNS does it say/ mean indicate we have to pay for the project carry later? Ie 50% of our 30%
" Energean's carry of Chariot's costs is non-recourse, and has a coupon of 7% over the one year Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), with the carry including interest repayable from 50% of Chariot's future net sales revenues from the Lixus licence"
Markets are treating it not derisked, quite the opposite. More flim flam dealings from AP and crooks imo.
The market has seen that CHAR could not get a reputable operator, and has determined it will need more funding.
Current target 10p probably.
Sft
Hi B4Now,
Okay, thank you, appreciate the input. Do you have a link to a good site, especially if it also shows graphs.
Rgds Sft
Ps I have a right mare with gas and how to calculate the different forms of measurements: companies seem to use, ft, meters, then millions and billions and is that a US billions or a UK billion, then BOE (Which I can get my head around).
Cheers Sft
Only invested into gas via Kistos ( annd before Rockrose) and CHAR.
Scroll down a bit for the historical prices:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/natural-gas-price
Rgds Sft
I would think that the fall in gas prices, would have to effect the SP. Even though we are not a producer it still influences the worth of the company?
Just got to sit tight and hope we have some clarity from RNS's as the board are keeping quiet on how the onshore "venture" fits in with the offshore packaging.
GLA
Rgds Sft
Sorry a glitch in the matrix
" The Moroccan Gov AND what gas CONTRACT PRICE PER BOE AND WHAT THEY WANT TO PAY , is what IS HOLDING THINGS UP ( they will have real influence in that imo), If you add in this onshore.....IT ALL SEEM VERY CONFUSING. You couple that with the lack of clarity on financing the other pillars no wonder the market is cautious on share price valuation!
I am in to deep now π
Rgds Sft