Finncap note27 Dec 2018 09:20
Mengo comes in ahead of expectations
AAOG ending the year on a high, encountering oil and gas in the second of the
three target intervals for the TLP-103C well, the Mengo. This zone looks to be
larger and have higher net pay than expected, plus three new potential zones
were also encountered. Wireline logs will be run to evaluate all the zones before
the well is deepened to the Djeno exploration target. This news goes a long way
towards de-risking the Mengo, which was ascribed a 60% chance of success in
the CPR. However, this is expected to be a tight reservoir, so stimulation and a
flow test will be needed to fully demonstrate commercial viability. Nevertheless,
our 17p/sh risked-NPV estimate for the Mengo alone rises to 29p/sh if fully derisked, demonstrating the material upside potential on offer from this well. After a
troubled start, this well is starting to deliver.
?Mengo comes in. AAOG’s TLP-103C well on the Tilapia field in the Congo has
encountered hydrocarbons in the second target interval, the Mengo, again confirming
AAOG’s geological model following the earlier R1/R2/R3 success.
?Net pay ahead of expectations. The well intersected a 104m gross Mengo interval
with oil and gas shows across 50m of sandstone. This net pay is thicker than
expected, but will need to be confirmed by wireline logging and downhole pressure
readings. The original Mengo discovery well in 2006 encountered a 38m gross
column (10-15m net pay) with oil shows and movable hydrocarbons in the Lower
Cretaceous Mengo sands. The well was not brought into production as the necessary
production enhancement techniques were not available in the area at the time. Since
then, however, well-stimulation techniques have become widely available.
?Potential new pay zones encountered. The well also encountered three new
potential pay zones between the R2 and the Mengo, with positive log responses and
hydrocarbon shows. These zones were not encountered with the original Tilapia
discovery well and their potential will be investigated via MDT logging.
?Wireline logging ahead of Djeno. AAOG will pause drilling to undertake wireline
logging to evaluate all of the zones so far encountered – R1/R2/R3, Mengo and the
three new potential zones. Following this, drilling will continue towards the deeper
Djeno exploration target. The Mengo was given a gross best contingent resource
estimate of 8.1mmbbls in the CPR. We estimate a risked NPV for this resource,
assuming a 60% chance of success, of 17p/sh (29p/sh unrisked). The wireline
logging should go some way to de-risking this prospect,although a flow tes t will be
necessary to fully demonstrate commercial viability