The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Broker Peel Hunt have been shouting about the UK market for months, pointing out how bad it has been going for years, compared to other markets. And you have to also take into account that they are not really talking about the FTSE-100, they are talking mainly about small and mid cap markets. Some of their LinkedIn posts follow:
How can the UK ISA turbocharge the UK capital markets?
There has been considerable commentary on the merits of the UK ISA. In this article, Charles Hall explores the motivation behind its creation and highlights the key points.
The consultation period runs to 6th June. We strongly urge anyone interested in the health of UK equities to participate in the consultation, which can be accessed here: https://lnkd.in/ehJ94Tz8
Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/ezBknyuK
While the government plans to reduce its 28.7% stake in NatWest, Coutts (owned by NatWest) is simultaneously reducing fund allocations to the UK.
Historically, the funds have heavily favored the UK, but will now be globally focused. A substantial (£2bn) transfer of assets from UK to global funds is occurring, which reinforces the inexorable trend of outflows from the UK. To reverse this trend, we believe it is imperative that there is hashtag#pensionreform, a hashtag#BritishISA, and removal of hashtag#stampduty to encourage UK investment in UK assets.
Read the full article by Charles Hall here: https://lnkd.in/dRiPeXRy
Investing in the UK
In this note, Charles Hall highlights some thought-provoking analysis from the team at Ondra.
Policy choices – these include increasing contributions to DC schemes, focusing investment in the UK, making tax benefits contingent on home investment, and developing a Sovereign Wealth Fund.
A turning point – the UK has a large (£2.5tn) pool of pension assets. However, this is increasingly invested in low returning assets, or overseas, to the detriment of UK economic growth and prosperity. In our view, reversal of this trend is central to improving the performance of the UK economy, tax take, pensions, and equity market.
The problem – although it should be obvious, it needs to be repeated. The policy and tax changes around Defined Benefit Pension schemes (DB) have been disastrous for companies, the economy, the taxpayer, the equity market, shareholders, and savers, and sub-optimal for pensioners.
Read the full note here: https://lnkd.in/dckughBB
The UK stock market is dying, says Charles Hall, Peel Hunt’s Head of Research. Lots of money is being pulled out every month by pension funds, wealth managers and individual investors—pushing valuations down and UK companies out. If the level of mergers and acquisitions and private equity takeovers continues at its current rate, he says, there won’t be any small caps left by 2028. Hall joins this week’s Bloomberg episode of Merryn Talks Money to discuss the current state of UK equity markets.
https://lnkd.in/e6jpKPTR
https://lnkd.in/eiiGBu9G
RJ,
Ah yes, I was just catching up on the other posts LOL!
I think this is the big hint "This landmark visit set the stage for the next chapter of ARA Petroleum’s endeavours in Tanzania."
Set the stage? A stage set up for a Licence presentation?
Next chapter? Developing Ntorya?
They visited the Oman Petroleum & Energy Show, this was held on 22–24 April 2024.
https://www.spe-events.org/opes
Maybe people are thinking of the visit last year.
https://www.fm.gov.om/tanzanian-president-to-visit-oman/
The news I posted has not been published before today.
It was published today, go look at the page, the published date is there, so it isn't old news, it's new news.
https://arapetroleum.com/ara-petroleum-was-honoured-to-host-a-distinguished-delegation-of-members-from-the-government-of-tanzania-to-oman/
Constructivenews,
RE: "If AFC sell off the Hydrogen cracker side of the business, how might that benefit AFC shareholders. In what ways"
1) It brings in a few hundred million in cash for AFC to take the Fuel Cells (it's core business) Global much quicker, the hire partners in USA, EU and more are asking for that.
2) No worries about building a big inventory or cash flow to outsourcing at much higher levels.
3) It could provide shareholders with a 'special dividend' which is the norm when selling off part of the business.
4) It would keep AFC focussed on it's core business instead of trying to become two high growth small cap businesses, which as they grow together would clearly need more cash, more staff, more factory space, etc than just the core business.
5) AFC could sell licences instead and be paid a royalty on every system manufactured (CWR's model), possibly even based on each tonne of Ammonia processed, as it is AFC's intellectual property. So snowballing revenues going forwards, based on how well the Ammonia Cracker does under the new owner, rather than a cash sum and nothing more.
Adam Bond said in the IMC meeting, in response to my question about selling the Ammonia Cracker, that AFC will explore all of the options available to them (which obviously includes selling it or selling licences for it) and then put their conclusion to shareholders. So it is worth thinking about how their logic will work.
Pommygit,
I see that JeffMills has not posted on ITM since he got all his posts ramping ITM on this board removed on Tuesday, so hopefully permanently banned.
Now I find it extremely interesting that Garonne is now ramping ITM on the ITM board, go see, right after JeffMill's last post is Garonne's.
So I conclude that JeffMills is the same person that posts on here as Garonne. And now it appears he is also Daz. He is probably Ade1234 as well, in that case.
Escala,
The valuations don't include the Ammonia Cracker or 200kW other than what has already agreed to be sold to ABB.
As per the last page of the presentation "Blue sky value from ammonia cracking which the Board believes is not reflected in today’s share price"
I agree on 50p this year as doable but in my view that is just based on the Fuel Cell business, as that would be a Market Cap of £373.71m. It has been higher, over £500m, just on the Fuel Cell business, but the market as a whole is still down, so can't expect the same MCap as when the market was higher. CWR, the nearest fuel cell company to compare, is at £355.54m and climbing. If the market recovers this year then even more likely.
If the Ammonia Cracker gets priced in, as it gets into a containers and out for trials, and multiple big Ammonia players like ICL sign agreements looking at sales early 2025, it could push the MCap up much higher, closer to that £500m or even above it if it gets correctly priced in by the market.
"Blue sky value from ammonia cracking which the Board believes is not reflected in today’s share price"
I said that AFC would tell them in no uncertain terms that the Ammonia Cracker was worth £xxx 'way more than the MCap of the company'. The line above from the presentation would have been explained by the presenter. They even brought in ICL to make the point even more clearly.
Telecom12,
Thanks for posting the presentation! I agree, it is a real good one, the ii's and sell side analysts must have thought they had stepped into a whole new reality!
My picks from the presentation and a few thoughts:
Strong customer interest with first generators expected to hit sites this month. 21
Speedy "Delighted to be in partnership with Adam and the AFC Energy team"
TAMGO customers include Aramco, NEOM and other Saudi mega projects
Target to deliver in-country manufacturing to support regional demand
No intention to become mainstream hydrogen logistics business
That is another reason why I think the Ammonia Cracker has been specifically setup as a separate business, so it can be floated off of sold for a few hundred million to an Ammonia producer, Electrolyser manufacturer, big oil major, or someone like that, it makes no sense to make it a separate business if AFC are going to pursue it themselves. If they are not going to pursue Hydrogen Logistics, I see no logic to them pursuing an Ammonia Cracking business either, as that would also involve Ammonia Logistics. I just can't see AFC wanting to be involved in the logistics for the following, that is the realm of a massive global corporation that has all the infrastructure already in place:
Potential Markets for an Ammonia Cracker
Rail
Truck stops
Tube Trailers
Construction
Grid Support
Maritime
Mining
Excavation
Asphalt
Grain Drying
Steel
Steam Generation
Then we see ICL are already on it and are big enough to pay a fortune for that side of the business:
ICL clearly see the opportunity around the Hydrogen market for both their own use and for the supply of Ammonia and Hydrogen to others:
The AFC Energy Ammonia Cracker is central to utilising Hydrogen at our manufacturing sites and developing the customer market for ICL
Great to have Benedikt Eska on board, very impressive CV.
Illuming’s network includes stack manufacturers with significant production capacity.
AFC Energy is one Illuming Power’s fastest scaling customers
AFC Energy’s Hydrogen Power generator components represent a significant opportunity comparable to mobility applications
AFC facility:
Investment in the current facility completed last year
Big enough footprint to house entire organisation for baseline output with room to grow
Outlook
2024’s focus is on delivery!
We have put in place the foundation to facilitate:
routes to market with Tier 1 partners
H-Power Generator deployments to the field from this month
technology validation through satisfactory factory acceptance tests
links to international component and manufacturing partners
growth in production capacity both internal and external to support growth
Addressable markets offer rapid access through policy and regulation with sizeable growth potential
Blue sky value from ammonia cracking which the Board believes is not reflected in today’s share price
Ooooooh look, a hidden troll talking trollocks no doubt.
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The spread is not the real picture. Having tested trades on iWeb I saw the two trades just go through marked as sells, on of 69740 shares, the other 74426 shares, so I went on iWeb to see how much I'd pay if I bought the latter and guess what, it's the same price as the trades that went through, 1.325p. So ignore where the automated system puts these trades, work it out yourself.
Buy 74426 AEX - AMINEX ORD EUR0.001 CDI at a price of 1.325p
I can get the following live quotes to buy on iWeb.
Buy 500000 AEX - AMINEX ORD EUR0.001 CDI at a price of 1.325p
Buy 1350000 AEX - AMINEX ORD EUR0.001 CDI at a price of 1.35p (max before Negotiated Trade)
May 9, 2024
ARA PETROLEUM WAS HONOURED TO HOST A DISTINGUISHED DELEGATION OF MEMBERS FROM THE GOVERNMENT OF TANZANIA TO OMAN.
During their visit, the delegates engaged in the OPES (Oman Petroleum & Energy Show), fostering valuable connections with international companies. At the ARA Petroleum stand the delegation were able to see first-hand & understand the strength & depth of the ARA group including numerous affiliated companies. Their agenda also included several meetings at ARA HQ, where discussions were held related to the Ntorya Gas Development project. A field visit followed so the team had the opportunity to see the Qarat Al Milh production facility and drilling rig. The delegation’s visit to Oman culminated in a meeting with the CEO where they expressed their satisfaction regarding ARA’s operations, capability and safety performance. This landmark visit set the stage for the next chapter of ARA Petroleum’s endeavours in Tanzania.
https://arapetroleum.com/ara-petroleum-was-honoured-to-host-a-distinguished-delegation-of-members-from-the-government-of-tanzania-to-oman/
I suspect the small few sells are trading out for a weekend bet on PET. Maybe as per the rumours on their boards they will get lucky, it's 50/50, but the licence coming to AEX is 100%. I still believe the presentation ceremony will be at the weekend, as all of the ministers are busy every weekday to the end of June listening and deliberating on budget speeches, so that means an AEX RNS at 7am one Monday. It could just as easily be this Monday as any other Monday., its just a question of how long it takes the Government events people to set up the event, and they have already had weeks to prepare.
"APT has been told by TPDC that the Development Licence is imminent."
https://arapetroleum.com/ara-petroleum-tanzania-apt/
Mcco,
I'm not suspicious at all, and I see no reason to be either.
The Tanzania Government MUST get the best deal for it's natural resources as it can, for the benefit of it's population and ultimately improving it's status among African countries.
If the new ministers think that the country sold them short in the LNG deal then of course they would try to renegotiate a better deal.
Our deal is safe, as they have just signed off the licence. If they wanted a better deal with us, they would have held back the licence until they got it, they have not, they have signed it and it will be issued imminently (as stated on ARA's website).
I'm not ramping, anyone that thinks my reasoned analysis is ramping doesn't have a clue what ramping actually looks like, or just want others to think it's ramping when it's not.
Being positive about a stock you hold is not ramping, you should be positive otherwise you either should not have bought it or should have sold it when you were no longer positive about it.
The bashers on here are not shareholders, never have been, They are liars, trolls, shorters, etc, but certainly are not shareholders, otherwise, if you believe a word of the BS they post, they would have sold out and moved on to stocks they believe in a long time ago. Nobody bashes their own stock, FACT!
And before the trolls and bashers say "that's not much stock in total", it is just the beginning, the tip of the iceberg. ii's and clients of the Sell Side Analysts likely have to still do more research and their Due Diligence, and allocate funds, maybe sell some other non-performing assets to put money into AFC. Some can do that pretty quickly if they are in a small company, but in bigger companies there is also a lot of red tape so it takes longer. I therefore see this kind of buying being spread across weeks, not a huge one day buying spree.
Big buys, 2,3, 4 and 5 hundred thousand shares. Seems that Capital Markets Day did have a positive effect.
30silver,
No mention of selling the Nitrogen has been made. Currently it has to be seen by us as a waste byproduct. To change that, the Nitrogen would need some gas clean up to get rid of any Ammonia residue, then need a separate compressor (which consumes power) and cylinders to store it, and logistics to come and collect it and redistribute it. That is another whole new level of complexity to add to what AFC will be doing, and I don't see they are interested in going down that road whilst still rapidly growing the Fuel Cell and Ammonia Cracker sales.