The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
So many new people are pulled on trading based on chartists and their amazing predictions and so on- they lose their shirt.
This is all very sad.
“ If so I would expect the Asian markets to bring the gold price down to London close after they fill their market gaps when they open”
Enough said.
I've looked through you past predictions and approx a 25-30% success rate is demonstrated, a country mile off an 80-85% success rate claim.
I use a different trading platform for my crypto than my traditional stocks. The platform also cater for stocks but charges are a tad higher.
The platform boards are saturated with people’s chart theories, patterns, trading cliches and people making the odd success on chart then getting hammered when it fails- it’s absolutely saturated with these theories which simply fail.
Tony you said
““ If so I would expect the Asian markets to bring the gold price down to London close after they fill their market gaps when they open”
Well so with gold at 2022 and the U.K. market close was about 2010- how is 2022 lower than 2010? Plus gold opened higher too.
I’m pointing out the hit and miss of approaches other than data- and so your a mile off 80% -
Only have to trad the evidence here over the past 12months- I’d say more like Ray below 50%
Not having a dig, I just deal with facts and they speak for themselves
I only post to help
So much for options theories and gold going down then lol- it’s gone up hehe. Yet again and again and again and again….. go on the data guys, not old cliches.
“ If so I would expect the Asian markets to bring the gold price down to London close after they fill their market gaps when they open”
Great to see and key cryptos too.
I recall so many gleefully predicting it’s demise only just over a year ago when it was about 16,000usd, now over trebled since then.
First para, line 3, word 1 should be marker not market.
The markets of course over the years have always hit all time highs so and look back it goes higher - this is not a market I use as inconsistent.
Like I said yesterday the markets do what the market does and so do the fed - and they both work into the future -
Therefore as data comes out the fed will act and the markets will react and continue to predict on fed.
The fed must not allow a hard landing there can be a cut even with markets high, but they balance and time with data- hence the current predictions of delay in easing due to data.
Over the past few years I’ve consistently displayed this data approach and consistently outperformed.
Struggle to see why people use charts, cliches like “bull trap” and so on - how much evidence do you need ?
I only do this to help.
You’ll not be surprised that I don’t agree
Tony. Not saying won’t go down, but future data decides incl fed speaker comments. Bull traps are simply the correction reaction to data released.
Hi 3bear,
Yes, markets work on futures.
So the markets are where they are now at the point of this data, they drop as US cpi exceeded meaning spending is up, rate cuts predictions slow so more cooling (well actually delaying easing with the overall trend line). FED pay attention more to PCE. Inflation going below consensus predictions indicates too much tightening so need to make it cheaper to borrow (easing etc) to stop it being too late to cause economic major issues- it’s a complex timing issue and in my view the FED doing it well. The markets do not see this higher cpi as a big issue and are fine with the fed hence the rise yesterday in markets over there. Had they thought a slight cpi issue was not controllable then they would have plunged a lot further again yesterday.
Borrowing levels globally are high clearly but growth is key to driving these down- a “heavy landing” would be dire for this.
90.85 close- pretty good considering.
It’s the markets Mr Bond, not the FED.
Any increase in CPI causes moves at this sensitive time, raising likelihood of delayed rate cut.
Better than forecast CPI would have elicited the opposite reaction.
The markets respond to data and so do the fed - although they view PCE with greater importance than CPI
My post from the 8th below... alas so and the numbers not supportive:
SteveJones999- US Data8 Feb 2024 14:50
There some CPI seasonal revisions tomorrow, initial jobless claims showed employment still strong.
Next Tues is most likely (outside any surprise RNS here), the next potential move day- it’s monthly CPI data.
GLA.
There some CPI seasonal revisions tomorrow, initial jobless claims showed employment still strong.
Next Tues is most likely (outside any surprise RNS here), the next potential move day- it’s monthly CPI data.
GLA.
Not the case Mr T- UK House prices were on average approx £140k and in Nov 2023 they were on average £280k, so a doubling in 20 years. I've owned properties for 35 years.
Agree on UK state pension is very poor. People often ask why over the past 50years why there is a UK obsession on buying a house compared to many other countries, well the answer is clear- how on enough can you pay the rent when you're over 67 if you didn't buy a house? Other countries state pensions are generally far superior, so this rent issue for pensioners is no where near as severe.
The biggest problem is the rent rise over the past 20years.
All govts in UK have generally been poor. The same media commentators are moaning about the debt are those same people who more lockdowns and furlough- bonkers... and causing enormous govt debts.
Agree on dentists and NHS in general. Again, media are generally to blame too. A friend recently had cancer, was passed from pillar to post to get it sorted, so many departments and hand-offs involved where rationale given was "we can't see this data due to data protection, go to this dept" and so on, causing huge delays...
If an AI data sharing utopia there would have been access to millions and millions of scans where scan images could be compared in a second to ascertain likelihood of cancer issue, whereas all they could see was some local data to compare and then it's up to the local experts to take a view before proceeding to next stage which of course is very limited.
Limited data sharing, beaurocracy built up other many years to "protect data" due to the 1 in a million chance of an issue and litigation has meant probably about 40% of the entire NHS is spent on beaurocracy causing bonkers delays!
Rant over...
The fed will reduce rates as inflation targets are being met.
Data release at 13:30, so I baled out again on the button. Lovely 24hours though.
This data normally not support for gold and CEY.
GLA.
Look at the markets Mr Bond today- the opposite of a flight out…
R1234- prob the US statement earlier on Iran, US 10 Year dropping further.
Good to see markets coming back after Jerome being not so accommodating is his words yesterday.
Looks like my post was correct earlier this pm.
You’d think it would go up now… hope I’m not wrong…