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Fingers crossed
I'm almost scared to post with the amount of pent up squabbling on here, but, for me (and it's been said before) 'Early 2022' must mean Jan/Feb since any slippage into March would then bring it squarely into 'Q1'. but of course whilst the intention may have always been to announce results within this time frame, there could be any number of reasons why it's out by a week or so.
From what i've read of RM he repeatedly uses the phrase 'in partnership with' or similar, so I think that's (at the least) an indication of what his preferred direction of travel would be, as opposed to selling up by way of TO.
Of course big offers can always grease the wheels of a previously held stance.
Yes it does seem to be the moment we've all been waiting for. I'd definitely be up for a session if all goes well. Please add me. Thanks
I watched the presentation and I think you have to conclude it was a little sketchy and the bombastic, smiling RM had been replaced by a bit of a grimace whilst Tom Wilkinson largely played with his beard. My thoughts are we would have been better off without it (the presentation) as the results were certainly as many expected due to the small sample size and they did nothing to increase the risk.
It does look like we're going to have to be patient until the autumn and that will see the SP drop a little every day I would have thought. It was telling that RM said, 'It's not for us to tell governments how to...' He's quite right, but this does seem to be an academic run trial (obviously) but one where I might be very interested in putting in a cheeky bid were I in a position of influence at a bigger pharma company as the science remains strong?
Yes that's all quite reassuring on cost as that's my only negative - especially when I can imagine Boris wants an easy soundbite of about "£3 a pill' or something similar. I've been working on the basis of £2000 a treatment but that's only been from reading this board really. But that US article did give me pause for thought. Anyway, fingers crossed
Thanks Seaboy. Masses of useful information there. The elephant in the room and the reason why BJ talks of pills etc must be the cost. I don't know what the other antivirals are likely to cost, but it does seem Synairgen seem to be making something which may only be within the reach of those with private healthcare worldwide (and I take the point that early treatment for a couple of grand is far cheaper than a spell in ICU). Someone recently posted a US link (10 days ago?) which initially referred to us in positive fashion, but if you went to the second page, the high cost of a course reared its head (sorry for lack of specifics). I believe in everything I hear about the drug - except the potentially intolerably high cost for governments. I continue to hold as I have faith that whilst it might therefore become a bespoke treatment under certain conditions (as opposed to one of the 'biggies') as long as it was approved and in production on even a relatively modest scale, that would still make it a solid investment at the current share price. But £10/20+ a share? Well we can all dream can't we?
DPC - I don't know. I asked the doctor who re-did my initial questionnaire and he said I could drop him an email in the Autumn and he'd try and dig out my results. He also said a freedom of Information request could also be made in due course but basically it's not easy/possible to find out at this stage albeit it will technically be public information when results are published - but what comes in a broad RNS won't have any of my data on it I assume.
I have my final telephone call on the 90 day long covid trial next Tuesday and I was originally enrolled in the last 7 or so days of the HT so all those calls should be complete by the middle of April - if that's what they're holding off for.
I've posted on tis before but I was enrolled exactly 7 days before the final patient. I was told initially that once everyone had completed, it would be 8 weeks before everything 'unblinded'. I'm not quite sure what that means, but on any view, that's Q2 - as per the RNS. In fact I was rung this morning by the nurse practitioner who supervised me and she was checking up on my status as I did not class myself as fully recovered when we last signed off in the first week of Feb. I confirmed I was 100% now and she had a list of patients to get through. So they're clearly still processing and finalising patient records and presumably that's all before the actual results of placebo/treatment are ascertained. So again, April onwards sounds totally realistic, but not perhaps before.
Ha ha yes, always looking for sparring partners. And no, I'm not in touch with anyone else.
I didn't really detect anything re taste or smell when using the nebuliser - just it went on a bit long (about 8 minutes) and I did find myself coughing a lot by the end. But I had no taste or smell through the first week anyway. If the treatment is going to show positive results, then I hope/guess (as an investor) I had the placebo as the only residual effect I have now is in getting a full lungful when doing heavy exercise (I think I was one of the fitter volunteers as I am only just 50 and I still run and box) which suggests it had got a little into the lungs. But I'll be using for confirmation as it's all quite interesting.
Just picking up on some earlier threads, I had my final consultation on the home trial last week and I agree with another poster last night that on the basis the last enrolment on the trial was 20th January, we should this week have finished all courses of treatment including final consultation). I was told when doing the trial that there would be an 8 week gap before the results were 'unblinded' There seems to be a wish from some to believe that will be compressed down to a couple of weeks or they might be having a peek now. I just don't think it works like that (for the home trial - it may be different for Activ-2 of course) so the RNS stating results in Q2 seems right - probably nearer mid April/early May. Also, my nurse said I would be able to find out whether I had the placebo or not once the results were out. Seems to me I'm entitled to know.
The trial will be completed 14 days from yesterday but there's then a mandatory 2 month period before the results are 'unblinded' and the actual formal analysis can take place. Thus mid March at the earliest - realistically April = Q2. That's what I was told when I enrolled (I'm on day 8)
I was accepted earlier this week (Monday) and I believe I was number 87. The expectation was that the 120 needed would be filled by the end of the month which would make sense now that numbers are so high and following the publicity on the BBC web pages yesterday. As I posted yesterday, there is an 8 week gap between the last dosage (approx Mid Feb if last slot filled Jan 31st) and the preliminary results, so I wouldn't expect any meaningful RNS on home trial before April.
Apparently we get to find out whether we got the drug/placebo once all the results are in so that will be interesting. Good to hear you're nearly better.
ha ha yes thanks for the offer but Amazon/Morrison's are looking after me very well. Both my daughters have it too so it's a long week. My wife's hiding in the spare room and she's seemingly ok so far.
Thanks for the good wishes. Whilst there's only a 50/50 chance of getting the dose, I was more than happy to enrol. At least I get my heart rate and blood pressure twice a day! But it does seem organised and efficient and I've nothing to lose. Fortunately my symptoms seem to just be like the flu plus tiredness so should be fine.
I have just started the home trial having had a positive test at the weekend. It seems there are just over 30 places left to fill and the target date for that is by the end of January. Allowing 14 days to complete the course, there will then be a 2 month period before the results are 'unblinded' and assimilated. By my reckoning that gives a realistic date for publication of home trials data no earlier than Mid/late March. Whether there is the possibility of some interim results I know not.