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BourneWolf, by that do you mean that they are not concentrating so much on App conversions (because the website is doing so well) or do you mean that there is plenty of runway ahead of them through Apps because it has done less well thus far? Wasn't sure, the way I read it. TIA
They trade on the Berlin Bourse
Can Fosun buy the bonds, is that possible?
Aside form the compelling fundamentals, the breakout above the July 2018 high is a convincing on.
I make that 1.49c per share (328m/218.6m in issue)
This is more than Stockopedia has for next year !
This might explain some of the strength in the price
https://moiglobal.com/artem-fokin-201901/
This should be a test for both those short and long. Im neither at this stage but fascinated by the story as I was involved in the 2011/12 rights issue.
Im not sure the BOD understands the velocity of money. If they can understand that AND the travel business then they are in a good place. But the notion that someone will buy planes from the company (which is unlikely but in any event a distressed sale a this stage) or acquire it with a pension scheme deficit of that size is labouring under a misapprehension.
What is possible is that someone will want the TC name as a brand but they wont want the pension scheme deficit and the shops. Why would they want those? An informed multi party discussion with the UK pensions regulator and a private equity firm would sort that out pretty rapidly. The implications for equity holders are obvious, im less clear about the bondholders, it would depend on the terms of the deal and the flexibility of the regulator- after all it is public money. Defined Benefit pension members and deferred would very likely have a 10% haircut as well.
Talk of an injection (where from and why) of 500m to give the company the financial footing it needs is fanciful at best. I cannot see how an event like this would suddenly make them profitable? Any injection (and a pre pack as described in paragraph 2 is one) would have to come at a cost. Otherwise the "injectors" are simply throwing money at the same business model. It worked last time but that was with HG in charge not the current lot who kicked her out (for what). They've made 50b in revenue in the last 5 years and not a jot of meaningful net income to be distributable to shareholders.
Theres a lot on here about shorts. Im seeing little evidence there is more than 3% of the float outstanding. That's not high for a company in this position.
Will traders make money on this? Yes. Will they lose money on this. Its just as likely. But back to fundamentals just look a the CDS insurance rates on the TC debt, that tells you everything you need to know. The Chairmans purchase is handy and noteworthy and perhaps he knows something we don't. Again it depends if he understands capital markets and the velocity of money. Peeps with a lot larger vested interest than him will decide where this goes.
Fosun - not sure. I guess talking to their lawyers and capital markets teams. Slow it seems in enforcing an overdue change in management and not obligated in any way to act. A double down could work but only without the pen deficit and the shops. The Pensions Regulator will have something to say about that. A new entrant yes, but not an existing one.
All this is based on the operating environment staying the same. One should consider the impact of any deterioration which if it happened would speed up the end.
I am certain the TC name will stay. But in whose ownership and at what cost to existing participants is not clear at all.
DYOR, NAI just a few thoughts and yes
This has all the hallmarks of a pre pack administration. Once the customers fear losing their shirt (whether rational or not, remember Northern Rock) then the shareholders cashflow will be exhausted. I see Fosun buying them off the administrator early next year without the shops. Appalling management.
I think that was it boys. L2 v strong and it looks like it cleared. Attempts to shake diminish at each attempt.
333/666
If there is a Placing to continue the good work they are doing, do not assume it is at a discount.
Having looked at these for a good while and understood the story and the funding issues, I today bought a hefty chunk after the John Penney announcement. He had enough already but has taken the decision to acquire more for reasons best known to himself at this stage but blimey there will be something behind this "additional purchase"
Graham, it is up 50% since last June that's quite a run. They fell sharply in November and recovered 10% the following week. The call is at 9am. I will be looking for: - details of their agility to move punters away from reduced margin Spain to areas previously perceived as dangerous - dividend policy - any plans to move any more of the debt to current attractive propositions, they did a third of it 2 months ago - commentary on long haul and what plans to improve this as a long term winter offering - commentary on China, this has been very slow - commentary on their Net Promoter Score - mitigating competition, On the Beach are doing very well
Is that this is a proxy share re the performance of GBP. The pound has been under pressure for a long time but Mays decision to go for a large majority has underpinned the £. More in the pockets of the punters travelling overseas.
Porl99, I'm really surprised to hear any reference to dividends which is one form of returning capital to the shareholders only a matter of weeks of doing a placing at 7p which was highly dilutitive. .??
Good times... Coverage initiated by Whitmans Digicert (DA partner) shortlisted for two awards PTC a DA partner presenting to 8000 developers Device Authority alongside Seneca at a show(DA partner) . Seneca are owned by Arrow Electronics Stewart Alsop of Alsop Louis Partners a shareholder in Device Authority states DigiCert is a big deal, automation powered by Device Authority Culmocity (DA partner) and Quark strike exclusive IoT Platform deal for Asia
None.
If the Spotlight Research article is so credible what has it been taken down please?
Puffy regularly makes good quality posts on this stock and the latest one is no different however I wonder if the previous resistance of 86 having been breached for a few days now will become support as we head towards long term resistance at the 120 area. The oscillators are maxed out yes but the share price could spend a few days drifting between 86 and 90 whilst the oscillators find somewhere south in advance of a bull run towards 120. True They've run a long way quite fast but don't rule it out. IMHO, NAI, DYOR, GHU.