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Quite right sir. They should be able to redraft the statute and nationalise what they want. I couldnt agree more.
One thing though if i may. They might want to consider the terms of the documentation executed prior to the listing of the relevant security on the NYSE as Im sure there was something in there requiring them to compensate existing shareholders in the event of a chnage of control. Repsol agree with me.
Sir,
https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5477499&span=3
ATB
Steak
GLENs investor slides uploaded today (p28) show you are quite close, spot FCF of $14.6b
Copper 5.3
Zinc 1.6
Nickel 1.5
Coal 16.7
Other Industrial/Corporate(5) 0.6
Industrial EBITDA 25.6
Marketing EBITDA (6) 3.1
Implied Group EBITDA 28.7
Cash taxes, interest + other -8.0
Capex: Industrial + Marketing (7) -6.1
Illustrative spot FCF(8) 14.6
The TGA price earlier today (discounting the dividend to be paid on 10 October) hit £19.75. The witholding tax means it is £2.40 not £3 returned to shareholders in the UK but even with that the ex-div stock price was at £16.75 this morning and £16.40 now. The reason for this resilience when markets are struggling is down, as I see it, to the following
-API4 Richards Bay is at $297 in 'shoulder season'. Hardly the collapse at the end of the summer season
-Winter is coming. These prices will be maintained imo but more likely be significantly higher
-Gas flows to Europe are at risk. Whatever the merits of how this happened, this is bullish for coal
-Flooding in Queensland and NSW will impact on exports out of Australia (short term)
-India coal plants that have been idle have been required to resume operations to boost its power supply
-Steag in Germany has announced it will extend coal power plant operations
-During the H122 FY results update, TGA announced net cash was R17 billion at the end of July 2022
-This means that R2 billion in Free Cash Flow was generated in July alone.
-Net cash could rise as high as R12 billion (excluding the dividend paid) by the end of September 2022
Personally I wish it would drop back so I could buy more at lower prices but the above is pertinent to the resilience post ex divi.
Forgot to add, until recently and still boradly the case in any event, coal equities are being priced like the terminal value once this economic cycle(or the war ends) is literally zero. Fundamentally, that is not the case. Coal will have a significant role to play for many years beyond what the ESG media is propagating.
Mkt cap Zar48B
Cash generated at end of H1: Zar15B
Operating FCF: Zar8.9B
Returned to shareholders: Zar8.2B
Cash buffer (considered, declared & invoked) Zar6B
Payout ratio: 92%
Dividend: Zar60R
TTM yield: Zar78R*/360R 21.5% 78=60+18 from 2021
Yield 2022 H1&H2: Zar120R/360 33.33%
H1 is usually the weak half for TGA (operationally/seasonally) yet exports for H1 still generated 1/3rd of their mkt cap (on the day they reported). H2 is usually stronger operationally.seasonally and most critically coal prices are much stronger thus far in H2 and futures pushing out well into 2023 are bullish
By year end 2022, theyll very likely have Zar25b in net cash based on a Zar48b mkt cap. The buffer is in place. If exports run more smoothly than H1 (a big shout of course) then they might even have up to Zar30b in cash. Based on todays Zar48b mkt cap. They have a decent capital allocation policy as a percentage of their 2021 FCF.
So my line where I say "Yield H1&H2: Zar120R/360 33.33%" was based on the dividend in H2 being the same as H1. At todays price, that is what is being priced in when a H2 dividend of Z80R+ is easily possible. This is still cheap as Morgan Stanley stated yesterday, its like coal is at $110p/t not 330.
Ian Cassell wrote a great book called Conviction to Hold, the premise being the 'sitting' is the hardest part. If this winter is anything like as challenging for energy security let alone pricing, I share Morgan Stanleys view. I continue to accumulate
I wonder if people will start to buy this stock now that the "interim" payment is identical to the amount people paid for the stock in Autumn 2021? At £39.10, this would still be yielding 10% (91p + £3) on the basis of the last two declared dividends.
I thought cash was king in a deflationary world, no?
surprised not to see Mercardo Libre on there $MELI ???
Prefer the dividends myself as Im retired now. It might reflect on tem a bit that they didnt court shareholders very well but I have seen this happen before and that wasnt in a company that was new to the market and had dual listings. It's an opportunity to do ones own buy[back].
Buyback resolution got 66% approval not meeting the 75% req
In a parallel universe, would really love it if these guys replied to the moonbats, "~Listen, if we werent doing this, some other ....... would !"
Yes indeed, I think thats what hit $BTU recently
Do you think they are locking in transactions at forward rates into 2023 or operating on spot or a mix of both...and if so...to what extent?
Marmion
Thanks for your post and you are right out the blocks with the pink sheets! The average of $294 as a shareholder was a quality confirmation although I have been tracking prices like a hawk since Xmas.
Owners should note that the price displayed applies to the 6000kcal/kg grade but TGa confirmed in their report that when there were Transnet issues they had been fleet of foot to move coal that was 5500 rather than 5000kcal. Regardless of this and the discount applied down the shaft so to speak my calls have them at a monthly net run rate of almost £1 eps per share which on a 2022FY PE of 2.5 would be £30. Now, before the howling, there is always execution risk to consider and decommissioning liabilities but counter that with the options granted to the senior management of late, they are well incentivised to capture as much as they can.
These are mad and sad times but although it was exploration related, look what happened to Poseidon NIckel in 1969 which by coincidence was when I was born. All to play for.
Could be a net run rate of £1 eps which if you do the maths if coal performs like that for the next 9 months is mindblowing. I still don't think that this has been appreciated.
I have made £0.7m since last June on these (ISA'd as well) and have no intention of selling any when a £10-12 eps at 2.7 eps which is shockingly low given the circs makes £27 to £32.40. Fanciful? Possibly. Likely? Cannot rule it out. It all les in the execution and if as Newboots said a few days ago they are seeing improvements at Transnet not deterioration ( they wouldn't highlight this 3 months into the new year I found they didn't have a steer on the degree and sustainability of improvement)
There are risks to the benchmark price ( and that includes upwards as well), risks to the discount rate, risks to whether they knock out the volumes they have gone on record as confirming for 2022,
No, sorry this was a perfect storm re AALs future vision on ESG, a mispricing, rising fossil fuel costs compounded by an vile man in Moscow.
Happy to be challenged
J
That's first class work tiger, it really is.
Hi youonly
Can you direct me to the article please that states "...pay down new debt that arises (with specific note to the Peterson and Maxus cases)" as I cannot find this. Thank you in advance.
Thank you
"Argentina now has th cash to pay......"
Not saying you are wrong but can I ask where this has been admitted please?