Gas and electricity18 Jul 2018 08:35
Scenarios through to 2050
http://cerre.eu/publications/gas-and-electrification-heating-transport-scenarios-2050
Increasing electrification in the transport and heating sectors reduces the consumption of fossil fuels in these sectors but because the demand for power increases significantly, the use of gas as energy resource of last resort gains weight in the generation mix. Specifically, the demand for gas from the residential sector decreases as electrification progresses but, because of the planned phasing-out of coal and nuclear generation and limited increase of renewables, gas demand rises in the power market. The net effect depends on the countries’ specific policies and current energy mix, with demand for gas increasing in BE, FR and DE, remaining constant in AT and slightly decreasing in NL.
As more renewable sources of generation (biomass, wind, solar) are progressively deployed in the market, the electricity supply becomes more weather dependent and thus more volatile so that a substantial amount of gas-fired power plant capacity will be necessary for reliability of supply. In BE, FR, DE and NL this capacity should be around 3 to 4 times the current capacity by 2050, while in AT a small increase would be sufficient.
Reaffirming the demand for gas in the future!